Set & Forget Football Strategies
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@Craig-vaulks My ROI is 6.8% but my average price is way lower than yours at 1.36.
Maybe I should start a new spreadsheet and try a combination of yours and my own.
Though one factor with any strategy that includes BF prices in the selection criteria is the variability of the selection when you run the strats software at varying times of day.
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@Terry-Heller that's good going are you getting a decent ROI? I do think around that time it could be wise to avoid next year. May just track the results next late may/ early June time.
Yeah I did originally split stake my selections but now just place a back bet before the match as most matches are above odds of 1.5. Occasionally will put some bets to keep in play to get better odds. -
@Craig-vaulks Hi Craig, I do have your filter saved though I follow my own strategy for FHG. My SR for late May early June dropped to 67% though overall it never dropped below 78%.
The drop coincided with deciding to increase stakes so May ended up as the only month with a loss. A third of a point based on my original staking.
I now use a minimum price which I place in the keep if it isnt over that pre kick off.
I want to get matched as early as possible because over the 350+ selections so far the first goal has been scored before 15mins in 42% of the games where there has been a winner.
As I remember you enter at 15 and 30 minutes. So your prices should be pretty good. -
Hopefully it continues to go well for you matey. I’ve got a different draw filter with odds at 4+. You need a ridiculously low strike rate to become profitable. If you get 4 or 5 draws at odds of 4.8+ it’s very hard to make a loss in that month
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@Matthew said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
I've got a few but this one is the best one so far in the summer leagues. I feel uncomfortable sharing as it looks fake but here it is.
The market must expect a draw, 40% of previous games must be drawn. Odds between 3-3.95.
This will tank in late August/early September but I'm milking it for every penny it's worth. Then I'll simply back the draw when it starts to tank in late AugustThese are the results from July alone
Hi Mate, i have a back the draw strategy that seems to be doing ok as well, will wait until the end of the month before sharing as i want to make sure it stays profitable for the remainder of the month.
Getting odds of 3-3.95 allows you to have win 1/3 to still be in profit -
Anyone been testing my fhg strat, coming up to 300 selections looks like it is staying around a 74% SR so with a required 66% to break even. So happy with the way its been going aside from a bit of a bad run late may, early june.
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@Matthew I am seeing this as a growing trend, I am aiming to pivot my own trading to this as well.
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These are my actual backs from July.
The market must expect the game not to end in a draw, with teams drawing very little.
Every strategy I do pretty much just goes against the market as the majority of people on Betfair don't know how to trade
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I've got a few but this one is the best one so far in the summer leagues. I feel uncomfortable sharing as it looks fake but here it is.
The market must expect a draw, 40% of previous games must be drawn. Odds between 3-3.95.
This will tank in late August/early September but I'm milking it for every penny it's worth. Then I'll simply back the draw when it starts to tank in late AugustThese are the results from July alone
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@Matthew yes please bud as im looking at a back the draw strategy, what the SR when its flipped?
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Yeah, it can go on bad runs but because of the sheer quantity of games you can have a disastrous start to the day but the 10 games after that on the same day will pick it up, especially on weekends. I know for a fact that the filter is getting me at least 6-7 points this weekend again.
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@Matthew i have tracked it since 29/5 and agree that not trading favorites helps. It is still early days - and I have found that this strat can have some bad "runs" - but bounces back. A 12% ROI is very good - the calculation is with 7% commission that we in Denmark pay.
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@Martin Something I don't do with my own Lay Away strat is lay a favourite. Not sure how this would impact yours historically, Martin, but I've dodged two losses today and yesterday at Honka and Oita by applying the same rule to yours. (Neither of these were on mine.)