Set & Forget Football Strategies
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Yep, an absolute freak day.
Looking at the numbers and using the selections on the spreadsheet (my version picked up another selection in the early hours...which also lost, but will ignore that) It looks to be that the overall P+L has dropped to where it was on the 11th of June, not even a month and a half ago.
No doubt it has a been a kick in the teeth, I'll be reducing my stakes as I havn't personally forward tested enough. It's a wake up call and reminder for me that the market can be a beast!
One thing I look forward to doing when the back testing comes in is looking back to see how frequently these downturns happen. Looking at the graph there have been 3 significant times of decline since testing started, dividing the timeline up into 10ths these would be the first tenth, the 4th tenth and the final tenth of the chart.
Let's see what next week brings! Onwards and upwards!
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@Andy-Donnelly it’s really weird getting days like this. Everytime my phone buzzed I just knew it was the away team scoring -10% of my bank down. Gonna take a while to claw that back.
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@james-everard Yeh think this was a freak day. Pretty sure you couldn’t get that many away wins if you were searching for away wins
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@Rene-Ostenfeld Lost a fortune today mate on laying the away side at ko.
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@dave-tancock Yep - longest losing streak i have seen
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@Daniel-franceschi said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Hi how do I find this weekends Lay the away team 1.0 strategy? Thanks Danny
Hi Danny,
You need to create your own strategy in the football software. Follow these steps:
Watch the video here:
How to Download & Upload a Strategy:Use this text file when you need to paste in the rules for the strategy:
Lay Away - filter-settings (1).txt
Save the strategy.
Heads up, it has been the most appalling day for this strategy today so far, although that is the way things go at times, losing 5 out of 6. however there are 11 more games between now breakfast tomorrow, so although I'm currently looking at -13, it might not look so bleak by tomorrow...you never know with this game...plus, you have to think long term with it.
Good luck!
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Today is the worst lay away day since I started it 5 losers in 6. Gonna be about scratch for the month after today at best
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Hi how do I find this weekends Lay the away team 1.0 strategy? Thanks Danny
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@Martin said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@james-everard I think Tomasz one I am going to open up all leagues and start testing it, not enough selections to have eliminated games and it will be interesting to see how results compare
Hi Martin , i hadn't noticed the league restrictions i shall amend my end as well then
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@dave-tancock yes, I would like to remove 2.48 or below but will wait for more data on that not trading those odds myself though
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@dave-tancock in fact here is a new filter with 5.8+ removed as even if results improve on those I don't think it's great to lay a team at 6 in football
Here is new filterfilter-settings (1).txt
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@james-everard I think Tomasz one I am going to open up all leagues and start testing it, not enough selections to have eliminated games and it will be interesting to see how results compare
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@dave-tancock yep odds range is 2.48-5.8 for me
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For the the new lay away strategy I have just noticed a big junk of losing trades are odds below 2.5. If I remove the the strike rate goes up by 5% and the profit goes up by 13-14points. Just wondering if any one else has got similar results?
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Had a check of this month's results of the set and forgets . Bearing in mind how i trade is 2% of my bank so i will lay at the liabiality of £7.05 loss if the trade losses.
Tomaz Lay U1.5 goals (odds under 3.5)
Trades 10
won 5
lost 5
s/rate 50%
Loss so far July -£15.67The Lay over 3.5 Goals (odds under 3.50)
Trades 16
won 8
lost 8
s/rate 50%
Loss so far July -£4.07Back over 1.5 goals (odds 1.25-1.35)
Trades 38
Won 26
lost 12
s/rate 68.42
Loss so far July £-31.63So the back over 1.5 system clearly isn't working anymore even where i have tightened it up by looking at the h2h results. I will stop trading and start recording how profitable it would be the trading backing under 1.5 goals
Tomaz lay u1.5 goals isn't really providing many matches and £15.76 down after 10 trades so think i will scrap this also.
Going to stick with the lay over 3.5 goals early days so far and only a small loss