Set & Forget Football Strategies
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@nick-allan hi nick im happy to get involved with a fhg thread don't mind setting one up or just posting here with ideas etc
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@nick-allan could just chat here?
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Are there any good FHG threads on the forum? i have a FHG strategy that I’m running and I’m looking for some ways to perfect it. If there isn’t a FHG thread would anyone be intrested in me starting one?
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@greg-mitchell cheers greg :thumbs_up:
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@nick-allan Correct
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@greg-mitchell said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@nick-allan I am assuming that you mean for Month 2, 15 Selections £11 Profit and £165 Stake (15 Bets @ £11) so £11/£165 = 6.7% ROI
Overall would be £21 Profit, £265 Stake = 7.9% ROI
Ah haaaa think im there so you combined calculation is as follows:
Total profit (2 months) / Total staked (2 month) x 100 = ROI for the 2 months, is that right?
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I think that you will get different ROI based on the actual money staked versus basing the ROI on the stake being 1% of your bank.
Over a large set of figures the difference will be much smaller but over a small set the difference could be quite large.
You can play around with the numbers using this spreadsheet to get a feel for it or you could incorporate both calculations in your ownhttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1H5a1uLNSliArc8fDm_fpIpa1LEDsdxZPzSYTTtex9bI/edit?usp=sharing
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@nick-allan I am assuming that you mean for Month 2, 15 Selections £11 Profit and £165 Stake (15 Bets @ £11) so £11/£165 = 6.7% ROI
Overall would be £21 Profit, £265 Stake = 7.9% ROI
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@greg-mitchell ah i see so if i did ROI for each month and then i can do a calulations of oversall ROI based on the amount of selections per month.
so what would be the caluclation if i had the following:
Month One - 10 selections £10 Profit, £100 Stake = 10% ROI
Month Two - 15 selections £11 Profit, £110 Stake = 10% ROI -
@nick-allan No the ROI for both months is:
Month One - £10 Profit, £100 Stake = 10% ROI
Month Two - £11 Profit, £110 Stake = 10% ROIMonth One plus Month Two = £21 Profit, £210 Stake = 10%
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@martin said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@nick-allan as Greg has said ROI is interest compared to stake so you would just make sure the total stake was correct in the excel sum
@Martin @Greg-Mitchell But if you increased the stake would that not alter the total ROI inaccurately?
So ROI is Profit divided by Total Stake (for Backs) or Total Liability (for Lays)
Say Jan your stake was £10, so if you had 10 Back Bets with a stake of £10 and made a profit of £10, your ROI would be £10 divided by (10 X £10) so 10%
In feb you wanted to increaser that to £11, would you just change the stake calculation?
Using the downloaded spreadsheet as an example , so you would just change the cell below to 11 instead of 10, is that right?
so if you had 10 Back Bets with a stake of £11 and made a profit of £11, your ROI would be £11 divided by (10 X £11) so 10%
Does that mean that ROI for both months is then 20%? -
@nick-allan as Greg has said ROI is interest compared to stake so you would just make sure the total stake was correct in the excel sum
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@nick-allan ROI is Profit divided by Total Stake (for Backs) or Total Liability (for Lays), so if you had 10 Back Bets with a stake of £10 and made a profit of £10, your ROI would be £10 divided by (10 X £10) which is 10%.
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Good morning guys, I have a question in regards to calculating ROI when your stakes change due to compounding. So say I have a Bank of £1000 pounds and I utilise 1% of that bank for every trade, so the stake would be £10 pounds per trade, let's say that month the strategy did particularly well and made £100.00 so the bank is now £1,100 pounds and the 1% is now going to be £11 per trade. How do I calculate the ROI if the stake changes? So the calculations that are on the football set and forget trading sheets all based on £10 stakes which is absolutely fine, but how would you go about calculating ROI if the stakes changed based on the performance of the strategy, if you see what I mean? Is it possible to do it? or would you have to calculate and ROI on a month by month basis based on a stake increasing or decreasing (this will be based on the amount in the bank and % you decide to trade with). Does that make sense?
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@andy-donnelly fab andy, keep me posted still think this is a viable strategy, just needs tweaks, i think taking saturday out had an effect on profit and ROI?
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@nick-allan I’ve been tracking the 85 per cent version of the u3.5 strat.
Still early days as only have the data since the start of the year, but so far:
65 trades
51 wins
78% SR
+£30.91 (to £10 stakes)This month looks like being a pretty much scratch month but will update later this week.
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Good afternoon guys, I've been away the last three weeks, dealing with some personal issues and now back I just wanted to ask a question in regards to the under 3.5 goals strategy. I know that there was some testing on teams that were U3.5 goals 85% in last 10 results for both home and away teams as a selection criterion I'm just wondering if this revise strategy is working? I can't quite remember who had suggested using it so apologies for that.
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@dave-tancock yes
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@terry-heller said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@martin-walker said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Mines gone through a few tweaks so far and the current version is 250 games 83.5% fhg from kick off. Now i need another 100 games with the odds tracked and to see if the strike rate holds up to some tweaking and league removal.
Are you recording the goal times by any chance?
ive started to record goal times on the ones im paper trading but there hasnt been enough selections yet, the reason im doing this is to see if drip stakes would be more advantagous, looking at a 15, 25 and 35m stakes, you would be surprised how many late FHG you get and the odds as very attractive. I do a SHG spilt stake and when i get late goals on that its chhhhhhheerrrrrrr ching!!!!
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@craig-vaulks said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Is it just me or are there alot of people testing FHG strategies?
I am also in the process of testing one. We should maybe start a thread to compare notes. I currently have FT score 0-0 set in my filter to odds under 11 which gives me odds around 1.5/6 for a goal. Which I think is on the higher end.
set one up craig im happy to contibute to it, im still paper trading the old FHG that use to be in the profit members filter and with a few tweask i think itm would work. let me know when you set one up ill keep an eye out for one :thumbs_up: