Fortune Favours the Bold
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@dan-mackinnon said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
Today’s SHG/ O1.5
- Valur vs Leiknir
2/2 - although I didn't get matched on the o1.5. Still, it's good to bounce back with a win, unfortunately not a lot of games for this month.
+2pts
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Today’s SHG/ O1.5
- Valur vs Leiknir
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@dan-mackinnon said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
Finally got some games
Today’s SHG/O1.5
- Balestier K vs Lion City
- Tromso vs Haugesund
- Alianza vs Carlos M
- Atlanta vs Inter Miami
Standard losing day after upping stakes. It was frustrating to get close to winning on a few but not getting matched. Instead I had the two-footed challenge which was a 0-0!
-10pts!
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Finally got some games
Today’s SHG/O1.5
- Balestier K vs Lion City
- Tromso vs Haugesund
- Alianza vs Carlos M
- Atlanta vs Inter Miami
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Hey Dan, uploading my stats for both my O1.5 and SHG strats. Any advice you can give from your perspective or any feedback on anything I could be looking at differently would be greatly appreciated.
Running over May's data today, I think it would have been drastically different had I not ruled out all matches that had nothing riding on it, so one to think about next year. I also think that might problem may be in the execution of the strategy rather than the stats specifically. I think looking at a lower odds level or just leaving the trade running even if an early first goal, may help.
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@dan-mackinnon said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
Today's o1.5/ SHG
- Sporting Cristal vs Sport Boys
- Huancayo vs Alianza
I've never really traded the summer leagues, but have to trust the data
4/4 although the SHG were too quick to get matched so 2/2
+4pts -
@dan-mackinnon Peru has a good record on my data for SHG
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Today's o1.5/ SHG
- Sporting Cristal vs Sport Boys
- Huancayo vs Alianza
I've never really traded the summer leagues, but have to trust the data
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Cheers Dan.
The more I think about my variants of these strategies, I think my main issue is odds. I mistakenly didn’t track odds until recently in my results (other than those I traded). My strike rates are pretty good generally but particularly in the last couple of months that hasn’t translated into the p/l because the vast majority of the selections that won didn’t hit the 1.33 limit. I may need to look at whether there is a better price point but to do it properly will mean getting historical odds for 100s of games, which will be a lot of work.
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@daniel-harris said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
Hi Dan, great thread/ read
Are you backing O1.5 or laying U1.5 ?
If so what odds are you looking to get matched at ?Thanks for that.
I'm laying u1.5 at odds of 4.0 to win 2pts (So I'm risking 6pts per trade which is quite high in fairness). If you wanted to back o1.5 it would be backing odds of 1.34
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@andy-donnelly said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
Cheers, I think I have most of these stats coming through already which is good, so may take a closer look at those. I use goal attempts and shots on target as well and need to see whether I am over complicating things
I do keep an eye on those too but don't use them in the filter. If it's 0-0 at HT say, I would like to see around 10 or more shots and a few of those on target. That can be evenly spread out or heavily for 1 team. I would expect the next goal market to be around 5-4.3 at HT. If it's lower than that sometimes I'd wait and see how the first 5-10 minutes go and if there's been 0 shots at all I'd be unsure about entering. I use Flashscore for my stats but most will give you rough information.
The issue with the above is you can hold off and see the next goal drop down to 3.0 and no SH shots, then suddenly a goal goes in. Or you enter a trade and by 60 minutes no shots so get out and a goal goes in. Either way, with any trade really, you have to make a decision and commit to it. You'll get them wrong sometimes, but you just have to hope you get more right than you don't!
Hopefully that's of some help but feel free to ask any more questions
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Hi Dan, great thread/ read
Are you backing O1.5 or laying U1.5 ?
If so what odds are you looking to get matched at ? -
Cheers, I think I have most of these stats coming through already which is good, so may take a closer look at those. I use goal attempts and shots on target as well and need to see whether I am over complicating things
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@andy-donnelly I tend to let it run. I'll have o1.5 queued up and if there's any early goal I'll leave it as it might get matched later or it'll cancel itself if there's 2. If there's an early goal and good IPS for SHG then I'll double the 1.5 trade. The worst outcomes are 1-0 at HT and stays 1-0!
My filter is
- Matches Played 10+
- Ov. Goals Scored Per Match Ave 3+
- Home scored in H2 % 80+
- Away H2 O0.5 % 60+
Scope: Last 10 Matches
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Cheers, assume you cancel out if goal comes before it gets matched? Or do you leave it and if price comes back around by say half time due to no further goals, you are still queuing?
The odds you use is very similar to mine but found the last month very short on odds (assume market predicting more goals due to end of season) so didn’t get on enough.
Also final question, what stats do you use in your filters? Be interesting to see if I’m missing something I should be using.
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@andy-donnelly said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
@dan-mackinnon nice work, what minimum odds do you use on your selections out of interest?
I queue at 4.0. I've considered raising it to 5.0 but I'll probably paper trade that when the winter leagues restart.
If you didn't want to lay then you can back at 1.34
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@dan-mackinnon nice work, what minimum odds do you use on your selections out of interest?
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End of Month Review - May
I feel this has been my best month. Not just in terms of points gained, but after last month I allowed myself more time to be selective. I could easily have traded twice the number and made more points, but there were some days I just wanted to step away. This is probably the first month that I truly felt in control of my trading.May in numbers - traded numbers only
23 trades
21 winning trades 91.3% SR (Average should be 85 so this has been a good month. Previous months have been 89, 74 and 80. However, this is based only on what I've traded)
5 days trading
LLR: 1
+30ptsWith that, I can now declare myself a red belt BTC trader!
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@dan-mackinnon said in Fortune Favours the Bold:
Last weekend of the month.
Today’s o1.5/ SHG
- Hougang vs Balestier
- Eskilstuna vs Ostersunds
- Los Angeles FC vs San Jose
- Atlanta vs Columbus
If Liverpool vs Real Madrid is 0-0 at HT you’ll have to reckon they’ll be a SHG in that one
4/4 o1.5
4/4 SHGI didn’t trade the SHG and didn’t get matched on the first one. I did however get matched in the CL final so overall +8pts
That’s likely to be the last for this month
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Last weekend of the month.
Today’s o1.5/ SHG
- Hougang vs Balestier
- Eskilstuna vs Ostersunds
- Los Angeles FC vs San Jose
- Atlanta vs Columbus
I’m out all day and at a comedy event this evening. However, if Liverpool vs Real Madrid is 0-0 at HT you’ll have to reckon they’ll be a SHG in that one. If this CL has shown anything, you can’t write Real Madrid off until the final whistle
