BTTS filter which might turn into something else
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Hi all,
I've been working on some BTTS filters and have a few different ones which I am tracking at present. I have been interested in this market because it has potential to be used for O2.5 trades as well and the BTTS odds are normally higher than the O1.5's.
Now that one of the filters has hit 200 selections I am looking to get some feedback on whether the strike rate is comparable with what others are achieving in this market. I have also recorded the O1.5, O2.5, FHG & SHG's from the selections with the results being:
So basically is 62.5% a reasonable strike rate for this market?
I have broken the selections down by country but don't really have enough games yet to make any judgements on that front with the possible exception of Germany where there has been 25 matches and 80% have been BTTS.
What also caught my eye is the SHG strike rate which is 87% out of the 200 games so it might be that I end up using this filter as a HT LTD/LCS.
The odds for this market vary quite a lot depending on country / teams, for example last night's Zamalek game in Egypt had BTTS at 2.1 before kick off on B365 (didn't manage to see what it was on the BF exchange) whilst I have seen others as low as 1.4 pre-game.
I haven't decided how to play this as a BTTS trade but was thinking along the lines of entering about 15 mins into the game and possibly doing a split stake.
I hope this makes some sense to you all and I would welcome any advice or pointers
Thanks,
Ian
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@darri Thanks for the pointers Darri. The O1.5 is an angle which I definitely want to improve on as I collect some more data. At present I'm using this as for SHG as long as the in play stats look good.
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This is great to see mate! For me BTTS markets can be a ball ache over time. There is some quality data going on there with the overs markets. The thing here is to perhaps look at the best performing ones. So the SHG and o1.5 could they be improved. Typically when we are building data from a direction of another market we dont narrow down on criteria that would be of better use in those other angles. Now perhaps would be a good time to start testing the other angles further. That SHG strike rate looks very healthy but im sure if you put more data/criteria crunching that it could get closer to 90%. Start eliminating underperforming leagues and scorelines and im sure you can tweak that further.
Lovely stuff tho mate keep it up
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@ian-wylie Nice, I love it when a filter becomes something else shows the power of the data and tracking - look at that Over 1.5s!!!
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@stuart-capstick Thanks Stuart, that's an very interesting point which I'll take a look at.
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@matt-wood Hi Matt, on this particular filter the scope is set to last 10 games although I do have a criteria in the filter for matches played being greater than or equal to 5. So thinking about it not sure if this criteria is actually doing anything with the scope being set to 10?
I think I'll start another filter but with the scope set to 5 and track it alongside this one to see what difference there is.
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@ian-wylie
Have a look at the differences in the BTTS rates when the away team scores first compared to when the home team scores first.
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@matt-wood No I haven't restricted any leagues at present, once I have more results and can form a clearer picture then I'm sure I will.
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@ian-wylie
Yes I was expecting something similar to you with the O1.5 since a BTTS win is also an O1.5 win. O1.5 on mine is 81.58%, which I also expected to be a little higher. Time will tell I guess, things may even out on my filter as its so early can't really draw any conclusions from it yet.
I did initially restrict my league selection to those leagues with a 45% and up historical O2.5. Did you restrict your leagues at all or have you just left it wide open to all leagues in the software?
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@matt-wood Thanks Matt,
That sounds like a good start over 73%, it will be interesting to see how that develops. With regards the O1.5, I had expected the strike rate to be a bit better as the filter is looking for BTTS which is of course O1.5 but the other BTTS filters I'm tracking are about the same with 1 being down at 73% but it's very early days for those ones.
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@ian-wylie Seems a decent SHG sr to me, although there are some SHG experts hanging around here somewhere
they would tell you better than me!Ive been testing something with a very similar idea to this. I have not hit 100 games yet though so VERY early days for me, just as a comparison though my BTTS sr is currently 73.68% and an average pre KO odds of 1.36. As I said though this is early days for mine so I expect that sr will come down somewhat.
Curiously though your O1.5 sr is better than mine...
