My Betfair Journey - The Long & Winding Road
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Hi All
Thought it was about time i did one of these. I have been trying to crack this game for over 2 years now and fingers crossed im seeing the benefits of that 2 years learning. It hasnt been easy there have been days where i wanted to give up (multiple times)smash up the PC. Self doubt creeping in and all the negatives that you can think of. But i kept with it and hopefully came out the otherside
One good thing i never bust a bank but was treading water for a long time
Lots i have learnt on the way, like taking losses on the chin (this was properly the hardest one to get right). Dont think short term think long term.
One thing that clicked for me was when i upped my stakes from small play stakes to something that made me think about the trade alot moreAnyway onto my strategy. I have been using FDD as my main focus (lots of people use this site so nothing new) . I have a excel sheet with over 33,000 matches on it over 28 Leagues going back to 2017
I mainly do SHG plus a few FHG and LAY U1.5.
On the SHG i wait till HT to see what the score is then its just a case of look at my HT score lines. I have 8 HT score lines 0-2, 2-0, 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2, 2-1, . I dont like anything that under 80%
My filter is home teams under 2.0 and over 2.01. There can be a big difference between % for the same score line, i will give you a few examplesEnglish Premier League 1-0 HT - Home Team 2.0 or less 144 matches 126 had a SHG = 87%
Home Team 2.01 or more 142 matches 103 had a SHG = 72%
La Liga 0-0 HT - Home Team 2.0 or less 179 matches 145 had a SHG = 81%
Home Team 2.01 or more 310 matches 231 had a SHG = 74%Any questions please ask, any advice much appreciated and lastly if im doing anything wrong just call me a t**t wont be offended.
Will post my trades as i see them and will post updates on here as and when.
Good to be here, hope fully onwards and upwardsSteve
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@darri said in My Betfair Journey - The Long & Winding Road:
@steve-sandell out of interest you said about how a 2% drop off to the norm has now become unprofitable? Thats worrying that your edge isnt better here?
No that was October as a whole in the data base i use not what i have been trading
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@steve-sandell out of interest you said about how a 2% drop off to the norm has now become unprofitable? Thats worrying that your edge isnt better here?
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1-0 is the new 0-0
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@steve-sandell said in My Betfair Journey - The Long & Winding Road:
SHG List
17/10/2021 13:30 Dutch Eredivisie Sparta Rotterdam Groningen
17/10/2021 14:00 Italian Serie A Genoa Sassuolo
17/10/2021 14:00 Italian Serie A Udinese Bologna
17/10/2021 14:30 German Bundesliga Leverkusen Bayern Munich
17/10/2021 15:30 Swiss Super League St Gallen Servette
17/10/2021 16:00 Austrian Bundesliga Sturm Graz SV Ried
17/10/2021 16:00 French Ligue 1 Montpellier Lens
17/10/2021 16:00 Norwegian Tippeligaen Brann Stabaek
17/10/2021 16:00 Norwegian Tippeligaen Stromsgodset Viking
17/10/2021 19:45 Italian Serie A Juventus Roma
17/10/2021 20:00 Belgian Premier League Gent EupenLets hope for a better day from Betfair. Would of had a decent day yesterday
17/10/2021 13:30 Austrian Bundesliga Wattens Hartberg
17/10/2021 15:30 Swiss Super League Sion FC Basel
17/10/2021 20:00 Belgian Premier League Gent EupenWell that was a great weekend NOT, if only betfair had fucked up Sunday instead of Saturday typical. A few 1-0 0-1 scorelines not hitting a SHG on good leagues
Just had a look at my database of leagues and games for October currently running at 78% for SHGs compared to the normal of around 80% so a bit of a drop off at the moment. This will turn and go the other way at some point its impossible not to, just have to wait and have a bit of patience -
SHG List
17/10/2021 13:30 Dutch Eredivisie Sparta Rotterdam Groningen
17/10/2021 14:00 Italian Serie A Genoa Sassuolo
17/10/2021 14:00 Italian Serie A Udinese Bologna
17/10/2021 14:30 German Bundesliga Leverkusen Bayern Munich
17/10/2021 15:30 Swiss Super League St Gallen Servette
17/10/2021 16:00 Austrian Bundesliga Sturm Graz SV Ried
17/10/2021 16:00 French Ligue 1 Montpellier Lens
17/10/2021 16:00 Norwegian Tippeligaen Brann Stabaek
17/10/2021 16:00 Norwegian Tippeligaen Stromsgodset Viking
17/10/2021 19:45 Italian Serie A Juventus Roma
17/10/2021 20:00 Belgian Premier League Gent EupenLets hope for a better day from Betfair. Would of had a decent day yesterday
17/10/2021 13:30 Austrian Bundesliga Wattens Hartberg
17/10/2021 15:30 Swiss Super League Sion FC Basel
17/10/2021 20:00 Belgian Premier League Gent Eupen -
@steve-sandell said in My Betfair Journey - The Long & Winding Road:
SHG List
16/10/2021 12:30 English Premier League Watford Liverpool Goal too early
16/10/2021 15:30 Dutch Eredivisie Feyenoord Waalwijk Goal too early
16/10/2021 17:00 Italian Serie A Lazio Inter
16/10/2021 17:00 Norwegian Tippeligaen Molde Tromso
16/10/2021 17:30 Belgian Premier League Zulte-Waregem Antwerp
16/10/2021 19:30 Swiss Super League FC Zurich Lugano
16/10/2021 20:00 Dutch Eredivisie Fortuna Sittard Cambuur
16/10/2021 20:00 Dutch Eredivisie PSV Zwolle
16/10/2021 20:37 USA MLS Los Angeles FC San Jose EarthquakesTurned off rest of the day. Betfair up to there tricks again
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SHG List
16/10/2021 12:30 English Premier League Watford Liverpool
16/10/2021 15:30 Dutch Eredivisie Feyenoord Waalwijk
16/10/2021 17:00 Italian Serie A Lazio Inter
16/10/2021 17:00 Norwegian Tippeligaen Molde Tromso
16/10/2021 17:30 Belgian Premier League Zulte-Waregem Antwerp
16/10/2021 19:30 Swiss Super League FC Zurich Lugano
16/10/2021 20:00 Dutch Eredivisie Fortuna Sittard Cambuur
16/10/2021 20:00 Dutch Eredivisie PSV Zwolle
16/10/2021 20:37 USA MLS Los Angeles FC San Jose Earthquakes -
@steve-sandell I got caught by another game in the same league also yesterday. Been good previously one to keep an eye on
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@steve-sandell said in My Betfair Journey - The Long & Winding Road:
SHG List
15/10/2021 19:00 Dutch Eerste Divisie Den Bosch Almere City
15/10/2021 19:00 Dutch Eerste Divisie Jong Ajax Jong Utrecht
15/10/2021 19:00 Dutch Eerste Divisie MVV Maastricht DordrechtDont like too many from the same league but will trust the data
Total -3.01 points not a good night. This league is properly my worst performing at the moment but that cant continue its impossible, it will turn just dont know when
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SHG List
15/10/2021 19:00 Dutch Eerste Divisie Den Bosch Almere City
15/10/2021 19:00 Dutch Eerste Divisie Jong Ajax Jong Utrecht
15/10/2021 19:00 Dutch Eerste Divisie MVV Maastricht DordrechtDont like too many from the same league but will trust the data
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@steve-sandell said in My Betfair Journey - The Long & Winding Road:
My paper trading horse racing sytem so far
266 races +13.72 win market +29.72 place market
Will start betting these with small stakes from the weekendStarted today with small stakes just hit a 11.5 winner 3.3 place not a bad start
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@steve-sandell said in My Betfair Journey - The Long & Winding Road:
@martin said in My Betfair Journey - The Long & Winding Road:
@steve-sandell said in My Betfair Journey - The Long & Winding Road:
My paper trading horse racing sytem so far
266 races +13.72 win market +29.72 place market
Will start betting these with small stakes from the weekendwhat's the rough hypothesis behind the strategy? sounds great!
The main part of the strat is its course related with a few other factors taken into consideration
PM @Adam about beta testing the horse software, I think your strategy would be a good yardstick to see if our software needs tweaking
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1 game has cropped up today
SHG
09/10/2021 17:45 Dutch Eerste Divisie Emmen Excelsior -
@martin said in My Betfair Journey - The Long & Winding Road:
@steve-sandell said in My Betfair Journey - The Long & Winding Road:
My paper trading horse racing sytem so far
266 races +13.72 win market +29.72 place market
Will start betting these with small stakes from the weekendwhat's the rough hypothesis behind the strategy? sounds great!
The main part of the strat is its course related with a few other factors taken into consideration
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@steve-sandell said in My Betfair Journey - The Long & Winding Road:
@darri said in My Betfair Journey - The Long & Winding Road:
@steve-sandell think we all might be trying to find a system for the stats software soon too
is it data driven?from inform racing its a place system with a few winners thrown in
message @Adam here and he can let you know if it will work on our software too, may as well! https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/2905/horse-racing-software/55
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@steve-sandell said in My Betfair Journey - The Long & Winding Road:
My paper trading horse racing sytem so far
266 races +13.72 win market +29.72 place market
Will start betting these with small stakes from the weekendwhat's the rough hypothesis behind the strategy? sounds great!
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@steve-sandell yep but if its data driven then least you might be able to switch it to btc instead
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@darri said in My Betfair Journey - The Long & Winding Road:
@steve-sandell think we all might be trying to find a system for the stats software soon too
is it data driven?from inform racing its a place system with a few winners thrown in
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@steve-sandell think we all might be trying to find a system for the stats software soon too
is it data driven?
