2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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Shapo putting us through the ringer here!!
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Backed Shapovalov @ 1.71
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@adam-szeluk said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
Backed Bautista @ 1.57 will trade out if he wins 2nd set
1-1 greening up
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Backed Bautista @ 1.57 will trade out if he wins 2nd set
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@simon No trade on Medvedev Vs Sousa. Again waiting for both to serve saves a loss.
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Time 11.38am
Competition Monte Carlo
Match Shapovalov Struff
BF Odds 1.69 2.38
Ryan’s Odds 1.37 3.71
Player Notes Potential, has loads of talent this lad Natural clay court player
Big serve Heavy hitter
Clever player Attacking player
Great from the baseline Mentally not the strongest
How Would I trade it? Shapovalov is the value player for me here, he has loads of talent and has some good form recently, I think with his serve and talent he will do well here, I will let them have a serve each and if they both hold I will back Shapovalov. Watch for Shapovalov he is an attacking server. -
@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
Looking at today's Monte Carlo Masters card, 2 that stick out to me as looking too short are Medvedev and Chardy. Was hoping to see Fognini at a shorter price as was very keen to oppose him, but looks like the market has adjusted to his terrible form.
Edmund also looks very short against Schwartzman!
Digging deeper I’m pretty keen to take on Medvedev. He has no clay form to speak off, although he is firmly on an upward curve in his career and this may be the season his clay form improves, but against a seasoned campaigner on this surface like Sousa, I have to take on Medvedev at that price. It just looks way out to me.
Not so keen on taking on Chardy Vs Kukushkin basically down to the fact Kuku hasn’t played on clay since last summer, so too much of an unknown quantity.
If Schwartzman looks fit and healthy then I’ll look to back him against Edmund too. Health issues is the only reason I can see for this price. He was injured back in February and hasn’t played too much since. -
Looking at today's Monte Carlo Masters card, 2 that stick out to me as looking too short are Medvedev and Chardy. Was hoping to see Fognini at a shorter price as was very keen to oppose him, but looks like the market has adjusted to his terrible form.
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@dave-jessop I see all markets for that tournament now suspended! Strange goings on!
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@simon @Dave-Jessop could be a liquidity issue?
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@dave-jessop if it’s Nadal on clay versus a qualifier, it’s probably correct.
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@col You can add them to your filters, so just create a filter with them all on and then export it matey
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Has anyone worked out an accurate way to export the forecast stats to excel?
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@ryan-carruthers said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
@simon Won't be long get it back over here and get some consistency, talking with another couple of tennis guys I know, they said they've had a shocking start this year - usually good and they said they can't wait for it to get back to Europe.
This is good to hear. I've had a shocking start too.. to my trading career that is. Hope it's down to this variance
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@ryan-carruthers yeah happy the system still seems to be in working order despite my personal losses, so looking forward to hitting it when we’re back in Europe.
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@simon Won't be long get it back over here and get some consistency, talking with another couple of tennis guys I know, they said they've had a shocking start this year - usually good and they said they can't wait for it to get back to Europe.
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@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
Software back up and running! So 2 lays for the rest of the day
Marrakech:
TsongaHouston:
Garin2 losses for 1.64 pts red.
Don’t have results in front of me but I think that’s only the second loss at Houston this week. Marrakech only 1 winner I think. Profit across the 2 tournaments if you played every lay though. Unfortunately most the winners were when I was in bed across in Houston so I made a loss! Bring on the European season.
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Software back up and running! So 2 lays for the rest of the day
Marrakech:
TsongaHouston:
Garin -
@col yeah I saw that. I started exiting at 4-4 to reduce variance a bit as it is quite a high variance strategy. You need less than 50% strike rate to profit. I think overall it wouldn’t make too much of a difference but would be very difficult and time consuming to back test. If a break goes against you that late in the set it’s a big loss, however if it goes your way it’s a big win. So reckon it’d even out over time. Exiting at 4-4 if no brake I’ve found really suits me which is why I’ve stuck with it.
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@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
@col with this strat I get in at the off and exit as soon as a brake goes with me or against me, or exit at 4-4 if no brakes of serve. Been running it since June last year on 250’s and it’s showing a 4.7% return, this improves if you remove indoor hard tournament which are in the red.
Great areas. Giraldo didn't break Thompson until 4-4. I nearly scratched but he looked on top but could've easily gone against me. I certainly would've got out at 6-6 though.
Anyway to know what change to return if you let run to 6-6? Or impossible to test?
