2022 Tennis Trading Thread

[Richard Latimer]

Today I have 2.

Price already at my proposed entry point on one so will wait for first 2 games before trying to get in.

Green is favoured player.

I'm through taking full losses on the tennis now so if it starts to look sketchy I will get out and take a red.

[Richard Latimer]

@ryan-carruthers said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer Nicely played sir!

Thanks @Ryan-Carruthers

[Ryan]

@richard-latimer Nicely played sir!

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

@ryan-carruthers said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer Nicely researched matey!

Thanks

First two worked out well.

And so did the next 2 I got matched on. Perfect day. Took a very small profit on sousa just before tie break as didn't want to spoil it haha

[Richard Latimer]

@ryan-carruthers said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer Nicely researched matey!

Thanks

First two worked out well.

[Ryan]

Today's

WTA Bucharest

14.00 Begu v Krunic

Looking at this one to try and find the value, Begu is not in the greatest of form, she is of course in her home country which will give her a boost but she has lost 8 from 9 in the first round, 4/5 when priced as fav, doesn’t fill me with confidence on her? She leads the H2H here 3-0 but the last meeting got destroyed on the first set 3-6 - which is where my trading takes place. She’s got a big serve, she is athletic but she’s mental so erratic. Her opponent today posses a big serve, is a defensive player who plays from the baseline, I am looking for her to dominate from here, she has a better break point converted ratio as well, with the court being slightly slower as well I think it will suit her defensive style more and allow her to really get that countering style she is strong at, also is Begu is erratic then we are going to see a nice trade. Let them both serve if they both hold then I will back Krunic as she is value for me at her price of 2.32 - which will still be around there if they both hold their first serves and we shall trade out at the end of the first set if Krunic wins it, if Begu looks to be getting back in take the loss and move on.

ATP Newport

16.00 Bublik v Bolt

Fairly straight forward this one for me, looking through the BTC stats you can see the prices are fairly even on a match odds aspect, but then check the dominance, conversion, save, projected hold, the BPS, the BPC - Bublik far outstrips Bolt here and is priced at 1.99?? The 2 players have no H2H record though, Bublik is a big server, moves around the court well and plays a killer drop shot! His opponent today posses a big serve and will enjoy this surface but on pure stats and value alone then Bublik is the player of value for me today, let them both have a serve and then if they both hold I will back Bublik. Same rules as the above trade.

[Ryan]

@richard-latimer Nicely researched matey!

[Richard Latimer]

Green is the favoured player so will look to lay the opp. First 3 are definite if I can get the price on right. 4th is a probable and 5th/6th I'm not sure of yet.

Basically 4 is over 100 difference on the overall ELO but not as high as that on the surface and 5 & 6 are the reverse. I began thinking surface ELO more important but results witnessed so far don't always seem to play out like that. I feel both important but PERHAPS overall ELO very slightly MORE important.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

Hadn't realised everything would be straight into another tournament the day after Wimbledon so a little behind.

I'll wait for 2 service games to see if I can get a better price otherwise max odds to lay Jakupovic 3.8.

Scratch that. Price already well above 3.8 so left unmatched to go inplay.

First today worked like a dream. One more although I'm looking at another way of pricing my entry point as I don't like the way current one appears a little random at times.

Working out fair odds from average of ELO and surface ELO then reducing that by 50%. That's my entry point. Aim is to lay Andreozzi @ 3.25.

I'm out at 5-5 in 2nd set for around 1/3 loss.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

Hadn't realised everything would be straight into another tournament the day after Wimbledon so a little behind.

I'll wait for 2 service games to see if I can get a better price otherwise max odds to lay Jakupovic 3.8.

Scratch that. Price already well above 3.8 so left unmatched to go inplay.

First today worked like a dream. One more although I'm looking at another way of pricing my entry point as I don't like the way current one appears a little random at times.

Working out fair odds from average of ELO and surface ELO then reducing that by 50%. That's my entry point. Aim is to lay Andreozzi @ 3.25.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

Hadn't realised everything would be straight into another tournament the day after Wimbledon so a little behind.

I'll wait for 2 service games to see if I can get a better price otherwise max odds to lay Jakupovic 3.8.

Scratch that. Price already well above 3.8 so left unmatched to go inplay.

[Ryan]

@richard-latimer Literally non stop matey, some of the players who were out of the tournament would of been gone and ready for another tournament.

[Richard Latimer]

Hadn't realised everything would be straight into another tournament the day after Wimbledon so a little behind.

I'll wait for 2 service games to see if I can get a better price otherwise max odds to lay Jakupovic 3.8.

[Martin]

@martin-futter said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

Wait and see approach today, if Fed plays as he did on Friday he is value but need to see he is in the mood!

made a good bit there, whoever you backed you would have made a nice profit there! great trading match

[Ryan]

Fed is he’ll take this then we back to square one. I’ve seen Novak write sets off many times come back a different player in the next one.

[Martin]

Wait and see approach today, if Fed plays as he did on Friday he is value but need to see he is in the mood!

[John Folan]

@dave-jessop said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

@ryan-carruthers said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

Women's Final

I have Serena at value today, her price is just shy of where I ideally would like to be to back it. I will let them have a serve if they both hold and Serena really looks on it then I will have a small back of her today as I have her way down at 1.18!

Mixed Singles Final

[Richard Latimer]

I'm done with Wimbledon. Halep has higher ELO currently but PJH% way down. Between Djok and Fed it seems to be toss up.

[Ryan]

Women's Final

I have Serena at value today, her price is just shy of where I ideally would like to be to back it. I will let them have a serve if they both hold and Serena really looks on it then I will have a small back of her today as I have her way down at 1.18!

[Ryan]

@richard-latimer booooo!