2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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Change of schedule Konta v Ostapenko now back on tonight.
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Pretty bleak here in Rome. Covers still on all matches yet to start have been canned for the day including Medvedev V Karatsev and Konta V Ostapenko. Plan is to finish the matches that have started.
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ATP Rome 6pm
Karatsev v Medvedev
I really like this match up here, Karatsev is the value play here in my book, he has weapons he can use here he is a strong return of serve (which Med has a strong serve!) he leads the H2H and has solid stats, Med doesn’t have the best form on clay either.
I will let them both have a serve in the first set, if they both hold their serve then I will back Karatsev aiming to trade out at the end of the first set should he win it and move on, I will monitor this closely in play to exit for a loss is Karatsev isnt handling the serve of Med.
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@karl-mccarthy nice 1 sorted after the first game.
Was just about to post would have opposed her if she’d won the set but not someone I can back she is probably one of the most mentally fragile players around, frequently throws away strong leading positions
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Tormo v Giorgi Tie break looking to lay Tormo after tight first set at 1.15/6
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Fognini dropped his serve so no entry for me! Shame as it would have been a cracker at 3-0
but rules are rules!@ryan-carruthers said in 2020 Tennis Trading Thread:
ATP Rome 10.53am
Nishikori v Fognini
On the face of it the odds look like they give value to Nish here, he leads the H2H, all the stats in the software suggest he is the better player as well in terms of Proj hold, BPS & BPC.
Fognini is a natural clay courter which is the only thing to note here, but he is and always be on my S*** list, he is erratic, doesn’t always get off the mark. Where as Nish moves well, is athletic and will really force you to play more strokes than you want to.
How will I play it?
Let them both have a serve, if they both hold then I’ll back Nishikori @ 1.70+ he looks value to me, will trade out hopefully by the end of the first set if Nish takes it.
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@chris-osborne said in 2020 Tennis Trading Thread:
@karl-mccarthy taking similar view with the Rogers and Teichmann matches breaks all over the place.
The Gauff Putintseva game is a bit wild as well definitely be laying 1st set winner there
Unusual good start to the week, 2pts profit on the Rogers and Teichmann games and liability removed on Gauff match
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ATP Rome 10.53am
Nishikori v Fognini
On the face of it the odds look like they give value to Nish here, he leads the H2H, all the stats in the software suggest he is the better player as well in terms of Proj hold, BPS & BPC.
Fognini is a natural clay courter which is the only thing to note here, but he is and always be on my S*** list, he is erratic, doesn’t always get off the mark. Where as Nish moves well, is athletic and will really force you to play more strokes than you want to.
How will I play it?
Let them both have a serve, if they both hold then I’ll back Nishikori @ 1.70+ he looks value to me, will trade out hopefully by the end of the first set if Nish takes it.
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@karl-mccarthy taking similar view with the Rogers and Teichmann matches breaks all over the place.
The Gauff Putintseva game is a bit wild as well definitely be laying 1st set winner there
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@karl-mccarthy Will look to lay Fritz again
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Evans v Fritz looks interesting. Been a number of breaks in first set and have some green on both sides.
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For work reasons, not traded a great deal this week but nice lay set 1 winner trade of the men''s final in Madrid for 1.6pts profit
Tight 1st set 1 break of serve each which went to a tie break. Berrettini was 5-0 in the tie break before losing the next 6 pts but he eventually managed to take it 10-8
Split stake, laid Berrettini at the start of the set as he was serving otherwise would have waited and put the rest in after he held serve. Games went with serve until 4-4 if Zverev was serving 1st would have cashed out at that point but as Berrettini serving decided to stay in for one more game which was basically a free bet on the break of serve as would have cashed out for minimal loss if he held serve but Zverev managed to break giving me a tidy profit and I just cashed out rather than removing the liability which I would have done earlier in the set.
Another joint WTA/ATP 1000 event in Rome this week but not sure how much I'll be able to get involved as work is going to be busy again but got the following week off. The fact that Pubs and restaurants will be fully open that week is purely coincidental
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@karl-mccarthy I went the other way, backed Thiem after he lost the 1st set which got there eventually if he hadn't broke back immediately after breaking would have cashed out for a loss
Isner's serve is lethal when working scalping opportunities there although probably not on clay
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Thiem v Isner Got in pre match with a lay of Thiem at 1.29. Great start by Isner for 1 point. By looks of it had I stayed a few more games could have made another point or more.
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Decent 3.5pts profit yesterday nothing spectacular just steady gains and no losses, will do a proper write up after today's games although may not be able to trade much today
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@chris-osborne Bank holiday and the standard crap weather left me more time to trade today than usual. Traded 7 games for the grand total of a £0.52 loss.
One match where I shouldn't have got involved but apart from that was reasonably happy with what I did: -
Harris v Dimitrov
Dimitrov started out as a 1.45 favourite but he succeeded in losing a tight first set where there was one break of serve between them. In tennis I will rarely if ever place a lay trade above 1.5 as Harris was around 1.75, I backed Dimitrov for 1 point liability at 2.38. Harris then broke in the 3rd game of the 2nd set at which point his odds dropped to 1.24.
At this point I layed him for a further 1 pt - liability 0.25pts Dimitrov broke back straight away and subsequentky won a further three games to eventually take the set. I removed 50% liability after the initial break and the remaining 50% after he went a break up/ Leaving a free bet which I cashed out at the end of the set for 0.8pts profit.
Harris took the match in the 3rd set but I was long gone by this point.
Kvitova v Kudermetova
Kudermetova has been playing the better of them both of late especially on clay and I thought she had a decent chance of winning this match which in the end didn't turn out to be the case.
Layed Kvitova for 2.5 pts stake just under 0.5pts liability odds 1.19 after the 1st set and she proceeded to break in the 3rd game of the set. cashed out with the score at 4-2 after Kudermetova failed to convert a couple of break points for 0.2pts loss
Jabeur v Bencic
Even though Bencic is the higher ranked player, Jabeur went into this match as the favourite which says a lot about how Bencic has been playing this year, especially how she has been serving which has been unreliable at best. However, in this match she wasn't broken at all, neither of them we're in the set and a half that was played until Jabeur had to retire due to what looked like a hamstring injury although hopefully it was only a severe case of cramp as she has tweeted that she is hoping to play in Rome next week.
Layed Bencic after she took the first set tiebreak for 2.5pts stake - just over 1pt liabilty at 1.45 which is on my limit for placing a lay trade. The match was tight all the way through until Jabeur was forced to retire. I was a bit slow to realise what was going on and ended up with a 0.75pt loss by the time I cashed out. Would have cashed out for a scratch trade at 4-4.
Mannarino v Alcaraz
The one trade I was annoyed about as shouldn't haver got involved.
Alcaraz at 17 is a rising star of Men's tennis with a booming forehand I discovered today whilst watching on Prime combined with the fact that clay is not Mannarino's favourite surface and Alcaraz completely dominated the first set should have meant I left it alone.
However, both players according to BTC stats have 50% of matches gone to 3 sets and at a price of 1.07 after set one and as he is only 17 couldn't resist getting involved for a half point risk but he was equally as dominant in the 2nd set.
Badosa v Sevastova
Two evenly matched players on there best surface ranked 62 and 54 respectively although one is on the rise - Badosa and Sevastova's career is in decline.
Gained 0.5pts profit in the first set from laying Sevasova after she broke at 4-4 and would have been serving for the set at 5-4. This is a decent entry point especially in the WTA as the Risk is minimal if they take the set. More often than not an immediate break back will occur due to the increased pressure which happened in this case although Sevastova took the set on a tiebreak.
Stats favoured Badosa and she looked slightly the stronger player to me - they had both broken serve twice. Layed Sevastova at the end of the first stake for 2pt stake with the 1st set profit liability was next to nothing.
The second set was one of those standard WTA sets where 50% of games ended up in a break of serve - 3 each we also had a bizarre situation where it looked like they both took an MTO at the same time.
Badosa broke 1st at which point I removed liability leaving 1.5pt freebet on her with 0.5pts on Sevastova. I decided to cash out at the end of the second set for 1pt profit.
Barty v Swiatek
On paper thsi should have been the match of the day, but in the end Barty was too strong for Swiatek even though Iga went into an early 3-0 lead, Once Barty got back into the match she was ultimately too strong for Swiatek.
Hopefully Swiatek learns from the experience as this won't be the last match they play especially on clay.
Barty took the first set, and I probably shouldn't have entered but her stats in the 2nd set drop off significantly whereas Swiatek, sees a drop in the 3rd set some BTC Stats below - Barty is Player 1 in both screen prints: -
Layed Barty for 1pt stake 0.2pt liability on Swiatek's serve at the start of the set which Iga won comfortably. Put the 2nd 1pt stake in at 0.3pts liability before Ash served. She broke Swiatek in the 3rd game, I stayed in for the next game to see if Swiatek broke back but Barty held to love taking a 0.4pt loss.
Swiatek had her chances subsequently even being 0-40 up on one Barty service game but she couldn't convert and it was smooth sailing after that.
Few interesting games tomorrow - Mertens v Halep and Sakkari v Muchova on the WTA side. For the ATP, Cam Norrie follows up his run to the final last week in Estoril with a touch opener against Krajinovic but the match of the day is an all Italian affair between Berretini and Fogini, who knows what antics Fogini gets up. Mr Benoit "I don't want to play at the minute" Paire is also in action.
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For work reasons been a bit quiet in here of late but leading on from a discussion in my blog I'll be posting some more detailed trades in here as and when they materialise over the next few days especially a couple that go against me.
Looking at the schedule for MAdrid today, couple of games that stand out: -
Barty v Swiatek
Jabeur v BencicThe Barty Swiatek game definitely has a three set feel about it, Barty beat Rogers easily but collapsed in the second set against Zidansek. Although Swiatek has won both games fairly easily this is her first tournament on clay which is her favourite surface since last year's French open
y.
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Having a bit of a schocker this week, currently 4.5 pts down on the week although was 7pts down at one stage. Believe it or not got a decent return from Pliskova for once yesterday.
Will fully analyse over the weekend when I have more time, but I know I’ve let some trades run too long which I should have been out of a lot earlier. I also want to look back further as I feel I make most losses in 1st rounds when mixture of qualifiers, wild cards and motivation of top players may be in question
Had some good weeks lately so this may also be a bit of variance although I hope not would prefer to see a reason behind it
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@chris-osborne said in 2020 Tennis Trading Thread:
@sean-fitzgerald unlucky as long as your thought processes and entry,exit points we’re fine I wouldn’t worry.
Having a nightmare so far this week but expect to turn round. Always seem to struggle at the start of a week.
Thanks @Chris-Osborne
Yeah no regrets with how it played. To your point and reassurance I’ve really shifted mindset around measures of success with my trading. It’s not about winning days v losing days it’s about did I stay disciplined and stick to my processes and plan.
Interesting around trading performance early week vs end of week. Is this just for tennis or others sports as well? If it’s just tennis there could be something in that around the early rounds of tournaments?!?
