2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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Got my analysis on the Halep match spectacularly wrong, cost me a pt also futher point lost on Muguruza and Fernandez matches but never mind only day 1 still some opportunities tonight
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@chris-osborne just you mate fine for me.
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Betfair crashed for anyone else or is it just me?
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Will be looking at the WTA during the US Open beginning today. As usual I’ll be either laying the first set winner or backing the favourite at an odds range I’m happy with or if they drop the first.
Also the majority if I can will traded from about 8pm onwards.Todays short list (obviously not all will be traded)
Muguruza v Vecic back Muguruza around 1.90
Collins v Navarro - back Collins around 1.90
Rybakina v Sasnovich - back Ryb if drops 1st set
Gauff v Linnete. Back Coco 1.90 or drops 1st
Svitolina v Marino back Svit around 2.0
Vondrusova v Ruse back Vond over 1.80
Martincova v Azarenka back Aza around 1.80
Jabeur v Cornet back Jab around 2.0
Mertens v Peterson back Mertens around 1.90 or drops the first set.
Bouzkova v Osaka back Osaka loses 1st
Sabalenka v Stojanovic back Sabalenka loses 1st. -
Final Grand slam starts today which as games are in the evening is an ideal time for me to trade unlike the European tournaments.
For the first couple of rounds I will be focussing on the WTA as there are far more swings and breaks of serve may branch out to ATP as well next week as I have the week off. There are too many games to look at everything.
On paper should be a fair few one sided games but its the WTA and nothing ever works out as it should . One of the more intruiging games today for me is Giorgi v Halep.
Giorgi recently won the WTA 1000 in Montreal and Halep is coming back after injury which caused her to miss a number of tournaments during the clay court season which is her strongest surface by far.
I actually favour Giorgi to win this based on current form although it should be very close. 6 months agoi would never even have considered this as Giorgi had a reputation as one of the more renowned chokers on tour and was always worth opposing when leading, now not so much. I've done a bit of a deep dive from the BTC stats as shown below. In all instances Giorgi is player 1.
The odds slightly favour Halep although there isn't much in it and I think thats more on reputation than current form: -
From the ratings, its all very even on the stats that I look at: -
Projected Holds favours Giorgi whereas Break Points Saved and Break Points Converted slightly favour Halep although there isn't much in any of them: -
Serve stats favour Giorgi in the first two sets although Halep has the better 3rd set stats. Set 1 is fairly close but Giorgi has far better Set 2 results at 73% v 57%. The Return Games won favours Halep although again that may be historical and she does lose her own serve a bit more than Giorgi so may need to break back.
Two other stats I like Won 1st set, lost 2nd and vice versa are inconclusive for this match up
How am I going to play this, I expect lots of breaks, and will definitely be laying Halep if she wins the 1st set judging from the 2nd set serve stats, depending how the match goes, I will possibly take a LAy the Leader approach. May lay the player who breaks first in the 1st set as would be surprisedif they maintain there lead.
If Giorgi takes the first set will probably leave alone unless she goes a set and break up in which case I will lay her as old habits may reappear.
This is one of the first matches to be played at 4pm this afternoon UK time.
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@chris-osborne rain in Cincinnati? No way man no way
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@james-woodroffe Good point re ATP also hadn't looked too closely there. Of course it needs to stop raining first
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@chris-osborne you could very well be right mate. Also a few on the ATP side which could see a back of the favourite if they drop the first.
Either way it’s a pretty good order of play today. -
Interesting set of WTA games today, with the exception of the Osaka v Teichmann match which I won’t be awake for anyway, all the other matches could be lay first set winner regardless of who wins the set.
Probably won’t turn out that way and will still look at favourites losing the set but it’s a possibility.
Queue 8 straight set matches out of 8!
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Just under two points profit all of which came from Brady's retirement v Ostapenko which as she could barely move was inevitable the rest of the day was a bit messy but I'll take it.
The first set of the Brady v Ostapenko game was tight going to a tiebreak with one break apiece. Would have laid whoever won the set whch Brady took.
Unfortunately, Brady looked like she picked up a knee injury early in the set and was struggling to move and reacting whenever putting pressure on it. The retirement seemed inevitable. I would normally have cashed out after Ostapenko break as she isn't the most reliable server at times but stayed in.
Nice to get on the right side of a retirement for once, doesn't happen often. Hopefully Brady isn't too badly hurt with US Open in a couple of weeks but didn't look great.
Took a loss on Mertens.Andreescu and Fogini who was in one of his can't be bothered moods.With regards to Andreescu she will lose a stack of ranking points after the US Open and her ranking is going to plummett. According to Tennisabstract's ELO rankings, she is ranked at 29 for the overall ELO ratings and 50 for the yearly ratings. In all honesty having crashed out of the French and Wimbledon in the first round and with her only tournament of not being the final in Miami if she only drops to around 50, that will be a result. However, if she can stay fit which is a big if, she's still very young so can quite easily get back. Might be a good thing for her take the pressure off.
Offsetting the losses were profits from FAA, Rublev and Svitolina all lay first set winner trades
Was on a late conf call whilst the Osaka v Gauff match was going on with Gauff taking the first set would have been another trade I would have liked to place but not meant to be
If Bencic, Sabalenka and Krejcikova lose the first set might look at doing something there. Also the Jabeur v Swiatek match I can't call on clay its Swiatek's all day but on hard courts she should still win but Jabeur can't be ruled out
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@james-woodroffe See what you mean about the rain delays still another 1.5pts profit on limited trading so can't complain
WTA was a scratch day - Lost 0.4pts on a Projected hold trade in the first set after Muchova was broken early in the first set. Went with serve after that and cashed out at 5-2 to Konta with Muchova about to serve
Offset by a lay the first set winner trade Linette v Halep after Linette took the first set, Halep took the next two sets wo won the match. I would have laid either player after the first set as Halep is prone to breaks
First ATP trades since Wimbledon for 1.5pts profit
1pt profit on Bublik v Giron after Giron took the first set - Removed liability after Bublik broke and held cashing out at the end of the second set
Laid Dimitrov after going a set and break up v RBA. Agut broke back and held at which point I cashed out for 0.5pts profit
Happy with how things have gone since returned to tennis trading last week post Wimbledon. No big profits. Slow and steady profits wil get the prize in the long run. More importantly, limiting losses is key
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@chris-osborne I meant to write here the other day mate to keep an eye on the weather in Cincinnati for some reason it always rains there. The carpark is a swamp. We finished at midnight a couple of years back and the backlog of getting bogged cars out of the carpark saw us leave at 3.30am
I hate that tournament -
Bit of a rain ruined day testerday, only traded a couple of games for half a pt profit.
Ostapenko ended up losing half a pt she went 2-0 up in the first set when I laid her it got a bit riduculous Ostapenko went a double break up and then Zidansek levelled at 5-5 at which pt I cashed out for 1pt profit. Ostapenko won the set 7-5. Laid Ostapenko with the profit from the first set but she broke early and then consolidated so cashed out at break even. On more than one occasion this season seen Ostapenko lose big leads in sets so tried a cheaky lay at 4-0 when she was at 1.01 don't do that very often its player dependent and also how early it happens.
Straightforward lay first set winner tradse on Watson v Sasnovich both qualifiers and Sasnovich broke early on at which point I cashed out for 1pt profit . Her serve isn't exactly reliable. Watson won the match in three sets and her reward for that is a second round match with Ash Barty. Talk about being hopelessly outclassed don't expect Watson to take more than a few games based on form over this year
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New week new tournament, this week, both ATP and WTA are in Cincinnatti playing the Western & Southern Open an ATP/WTA 1000 event.
Bit thin on the ground today although a few possibles especially LAy 1st Set Winner but there aren't a lot of games scheduled to start in my trading window and I won't be awake for the midnight session: -
Projected Holds
LAy 1st Set Winner
Players in bold to be backed if lose the first set - if both highlighted for me it doesn't matter who wins the 1st set.
A case of never saw that one coming but credit where credits due - Camila Giorgi who up until recently had a reputation as one of the biggest chokers in the WTA took down the WTA 1000 in Montreal last week. She has beeen playing better over the past couple of months and sertainly earned it beating four seeded players in Mertens, Gauff, Kvitova and Pliskova in the final as well as Pegula in the SF who was also ranked a fair bit higher than her. She also dropped only one set all week. Looks like she's pulled out of this week which is probably wise would have faced a rematch of the SF with Pegula in the first round.
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2 trades yesterday ended scratch.
0.5 point green backing Sakkari after she dropped the first set to Azarenka and lost that back with Kvitova going out in straight sets to Georgi.
Not my best trade the second one as I got distracted with home life. -
Traded two games yesterday for 1.25 pts profit
Tormo v Siniakova match actually two different trades - After Siniakova broke in the first set to go 5-4 up, laid her due to extra pressure when serving for the set, Tormo broke back and cashed out for 0.4pts profit. I could have gone in again after she broke again for 6-5 but decided against it. turns out would have been the right thing to do as tormo broke again to take to a tie break which Siniakova took. Thats being results orientated but does give me information for the future.
I also placed my usual lay 1st set winner trade on Siniakova at the start of the second set which couldn't have gone any better. Tormo broke in the first game and took the set 6-0, liability removed at 2-0, and cashed out for 0.7pts profit at the end of the set. Could have left the free bet running to the end of the game but one of my tennis running rules (details in blog) is to not have a trade running past the end of the set.
Sakkari v Azarenka, another lay 1st set trade after Azarenka took the set. Sakkari has lost a lot of 1st sets invariably taking the second which also happened here for another 0.5 pts profit
Today's Potentials
Projected Holds
Lay 1st Set Winner
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Projected Holds
Lay 1St Set
With the exception of the Sabalenka match, most of today's WTA slate of matches could go either way. Probably be a case of watch the first set and then decide whether or not to get involved
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Didn’t get around to posting yesterday had the joy of teaching my son how to ride his bike instead but got away 3 lay first set winners (or back the losers).
Backed John Isner down a set against Christian Garin at 2.20 and closed out for a 0.6 point green at 1 set all. Did the same at 2-2 in the 2nd set of the Stephens v Sabalenka match with Sloane paying 5.0 at the time. Again closed out at 1 set all this time for 0.42 green. Third trade went against me. 0.5 point red with Karatsev despite having 3 break points with Khachanov serving for the match unable to get it back to 5-5. The day ended just Ona a half point green from 3 matches. -
@chris-osborne Reasonable day yesterday, 3 trades 2 profitable ad one loss
Loss was the first trade Anisimova v Dodin laid Anisimova after won first set start of the second set was wild first five games all went against serve unfortunately Anisimova took three and then served it out. I removed some liability when Dodin broke back the initial break but took a half point loss after Anisimova held serve for the first time.
Straightforward lay first set winner trade in Pliskova v Vekic match. Laid Vekic and second set took a similar pattern to the Kudermetova trade in yesterday's update. Liability removed fairly early and took a 1pt profit at the end of the second set
Small 0.3pt profit from a projected hold trade on Konta after falling a break behind in the first game to Svitolina. Laid Svit at low cost after each served once and cashed out when Konta broke back. Although Svit won the first set, good comeback for Konta who took the match.As with Andreescu and Kenin at some point if she's not careful, Svitolina is going to see a big drop in ranking she has done very little for a while.
Today's shortlist will follow later
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Today's Potentials
Projected Holds
LAy 1st Set Winner
If the players in bold lose the first set will look to lay the underdog. If both highlighted then doesn't matter who wins the set
There are alot of matches here but there is no way I will be trading them all probabaly be threeor four at most. The majority of matches wont qualify and I won't start trading until after 7pm at the earliest probably nearer 8pm
