2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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Now that we’re down to the last 32 a better slate of games with 6 of the 8 wta matches looking like they have the potential to be tight matches. The exceptions being the Krekcikova and Osaka matches who should both win easily although it is the WTA.
What I do will depend on game flow etc but would make a change to not dig myself into a hole early on.
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@chris-osborne said in 2020 Tennis Trading Thread:
@doug-sharp Thanks thats the same as what I'm getting
All seems to be ok this morning
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@chris-osborne hello mate , I'm not getting anything up. i can select tournament games players etc but there are no stats, not sure it helps but it's not just you
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Any one else have issues getting Tennis stats to be visible - did post in the software thread earlier but think it might just be me: -
Thats for the Rogers match due to start in a bit
Slipped back into a bad habit today and let a trade get away from me in the Badosa match and took a 2pt loss. Not done that since before the French so hopefully a one off. Although not sure how Badosa is ever losing to Gracheva. Scratch trades on Swiatek and Samsonova. Not a great start to the week but still plenty of time to turn it around as games get more competitive from tomorrow
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Few more games with potential today especially the Kontaveit, Sakkari and Rogers matches. Weather could be an issue again.
Bizarre scenes overnight when a match on Louis Armstrong Court with a roof was subject to a rain delay.
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@chris-osborne I’d been out all day and was unaware there had even been rain around. Hopefully once we hit the 3rd round we will see more even match ups. Nice work on the Evans match.
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@james-woodroffe had my eye on that one but the rain delays messed up my expected timings.
Dabbled in first atp game a price of 1.85 on evans reeled me in removed liability after first set and cashed out at 2nd rain delay for 1.5 pts profit.
Aside from the Kasatkina match it’s a horrible slate of games for wta too many easy straight set matches will keep an eye on Sabalenka match if she makes one of her slow starts other than that hopefully tomorrow will be better. It’s a shame Gauff v Stephens is scheduled for 2am
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Just the one trade today for a winner of 3.6 points. Laid Vondrusova at 1.20 after she took the opening set against Kazakstina 6-3. Used 4% of my bank and when Kazakstina broke I removed liability. I’d had a good result on the CPL cricket so didn’t want to undo that. Vondrusova broke back immediately and they stayed on serve till Kazakstina broke at 4-4 and then served it out.
Happy with how the Open is going but can’t get ahead of myself. -
Didn't manage to trade anything other than the two early games, there we're very few games played that I wanted to trade during my trading window last night ended up with a 1pt loss
Today's another day although looks to be a slate of one sided games of the 16 matches, 13 have favourites priced at 1.3 or less. Could do with most of these making a slow start
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Nothing for me qualified tonight so I didn’t make any trades and now I’m calling it a night. What I’m going to do from tomorrow is focus solely on the players who are in the race for the end of year tour finals as well as potential US Open champions and concentrate on them and I’ll take that into the remaining tournaments this year. To use a football analogy I’m only interested outside the possible US Open champs with those fighting for Europe.Or who towards the back end of the season may get relegated (miss the tour finals and quit on the year) I’ll have a proper look again tomorrow at those players and see where it leads during the Open.
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@chris-osborne I deleted the post mate cause I pretty much just said what you’d already stated.
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@james-woodroffe Thanks James had missed those fitness issues somehow. Game is probably going to be too late for me anyway
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This post is deleted!
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Managed to dig myself into another hole early on in the day with losses on Sakkari and Siniakova lay first set trades but nothing that can't be recovered.
Decided that I won't start trading until around this time for the rest of the week, next week will be different as got the week off.
A match I can't call is coming up later on tonight which is Muchova v Sorribes Tormo. If it was on clay I'd be favouring Tormo. Both have had good years Muchova reaching the Aussie Open semi final although gone off the boil of late. Tormo is one of the most improved players on the WTA tour this year, its not that long ago where she was a set and 4-0 up on Sabalenka and then lost the next 12 games. I doubt that would happen today.
Betfair has Muchova as the favourite although one early Tormo break wil turn that round: -
Muchova is seeded 24 and ranked 25, Tormo is unseeded and ranked 41. They have only played once in 2016 so H2H is meaningless.
They both have 7-3 records over the last 10 matches on Hard Courts and over the last 50 matches on a hard court, there is only one match in it, 32-18 for Muchova and 31-19 for Tormo.
From the BTC Ratings, Muchova has a slight edge on Projected holds, Tormo on Break Points Saved and there is nothing in it on Break points converted.
Muchova is Player 1
45% of Muchova's matches go to 3 sets and 30% of Tormo's.
45% is quite high I've not analysed it but, most seem to be between 10% and 30%
Service Games one favour Muchova quite significantly but Tormo breaks serve far more probably because she needs to if she doesn't hold serve so much: -
There is probably a marginal edge to Muchova although I would expect it to go three sets. If Tormo goes a break up in the first set I will back Muchova in a Projected Hold strategy. With her high volume of three set matches, I will lay Muchova if she wins the first set, not sure if Tormo wins the set but likely to be laying her as well.
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@james-woodroffe thanks James
A few of the interesting games today which are very much 50/50
Kostyuk v Sakkari
Sevastova v Siniakova
Muchova v Sorribes Tormo
Golubic v AndreescuBack at work today if I get time I’ll do a deep dive into the Muchova stats. I’ve included Andreescu because although she should win this match, she is defending a whole load of ranking points from winning this 2 years ago and will plummet down the rankings if doesn’t have a deep run the pressure on her is massive.
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@chris-osborne that Garcia v Dart match is a good example of a tweak I’ll make going forward that in hindsight I should have done in the Gauff v Linnete match for opposite reasons. Garcia and Dart are not reliable servers however with Linnete serving for the opening set and a pretty solid player who mentally isn’t a flake I should have waited till the end of that set and after Gauff had served like you did before entering and going forward will only enter when a player is serving for the set who’s serve is not reliable rather than being strict on price entry points. Nice work mate to climb back after the start.
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@james-woodroffe nicely done James I also got on the Gauff match when she was a set and break down cashing out at the end of the set for a one point gain.
Also gained a point on Garcia v Dart where I laid dart after the first set tiebreak and a first set littered with breaks. Although Garcia broke and I removed liability, dart betokened back straightaway. Garcia’s following service game went to numerous deuces and dart had a number of break points which she didn’t take. This is pretty much an automatic lay for me which worked out. Liability also removed. I then backed Garcia after dart took an mto at next change of ends didn’t get too greedy here removing liability after a 20 tick swing cashing out when play resumed for 1.5 PTs profit.
I’d dug myself into a 2pt hole earlier from the Halep and Muguruza games so all in all I’ll take a scratch day.
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A really good first day and something I can look to build on with a couple of minor tweaks.
2 trades and both winners.
Backed Muguruza at 1.94 down 2-4 after Vecic broke her and got out when Muguruza converted the mini break in the first set breaker. Her serve wasn’t instilling me with confidence so I didn’t wait till the end of the tie break and got out at 4-2. I find breakers painful to trade but 2.48 points.
Backed Coco at 1.96 with Linnete serving for the opening set. Linnete held and then broke straight away at the start of the 2nd. Early breaks don’t really bother me so I held my position and Coco evened up at 2-2 and took the set 6-3 for 1.75 points green.
4.23 points to start the Open using 5% of my bank on each back.
