2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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@simon I am loving this, will look to do some notes on this with you and look at getting some filtering of it
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@simon decent profit made on the Thiem lay there
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The PJH on the mens singles have been pretty spot on again today. Been looking at games where the PJH, BPC and BPS are less than 1% difference. Games I highlighted were the Djoko game for a cheap lay (no win there) The Dimitrov game (got in a lay at 1.17 and been dripping it out all afternoon) and also the Thiem game coming up this evening so will see how that goes. No real strategy at the moment, just laying the favourites when they go under 1.2 and taking it from there, but these figures i'm sure are providing an edge on the odds in the market. But then what do I know, only been at this a couple of months!
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@liam-couper Its on the members one already matey!
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@ryan-carruthers Is there a members filter setup for this too? or is it possible to do so?
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@liam-couper Yep I think so matey, you'd get some matched but not sure what you'd lose.
Could always automate it and leave it on test mode to see what the results are like. Collect the odds ranges etc...
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@ryan-carruthers said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:
@liam-couper I don't aim for a profit % buddy, I play it per trade. Some players will go onto win the set some will just take a game and threaten do it all on feel of the game.
trying to automate it aswell as do it manually, depending when I am around ha!
If I start at 50% is that expecting too much?
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@liam-couper I don't aim for a profit % buddy, I play it per trade. Some players will go onto win the set some will just take a game and threaten do it all on feel of the game.
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what % of profit do you look to take from the 3-3/4-4 lays? @Ryan-Carruthers
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@Frode-Lia wrote this
A little background. I have the last couple of years used Dan Weston projected hold models to find value in players with good serve. My results got much better going from straight stats to the projected hold model. My tennis trading is very systematical in the sence I only use five different strategies. 3 for ATP and 2 for WTA. So I use the ratings different from strategy to strategy. But as a example the strat I use the most, and with my second highest ROI for the year.
- I find WTA players with 3% pluss in their procjected hold. Ex: (dont remember exact numbers) Stephens had 63% PJH, and Azarenka had 59% PJH. Stephens was between 2.4-2.6 in pre game odds. In other words, hugh value on Ostapenko.
- I checked for injuries and so on.
- My strat is then to back Stephens every time she is one break under, or and she loses the first set.
- I would first let the players serve once each.
- On the third serve Stephens was down 3-0. I would then back Stephens for 1% (using the BTC staking calculator) on Azarenkas serve.
- Stephens broke 3-1 and I took my profit.
- Stephens lost 1 set 6-3 and lost here first serve. I went in again with 0.5% on odds over 8, and she broke once again.
- Stephens won the match 2-1.
Rules for the strat is as follow:
Let both players serve once each.
Go in on first break, but not after 4-4.
Take profit after backed player goes up.
Or, take stop loss after backed player goes down.
The last thing is the most important. It is in stoping the loses your profits lies.
I have used the BTC model for Miami, and it have worked very nice. The thing I like with the BTC engine is that its availeble when I do my research. Usually before my kids wake up. Instead of waiting for a email. And it have been very accurate (surpriceingly since Adam still call them experimental?!?) Looking forward to follow them closly this autum. -
Hi guys
I am not sure what the PJH method means or how I should use it. Can anyone make a quick explanation?
Thanks.
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Today's sheets guys!
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PJH for today
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Lay 3-3 / 4-4 Player in bold for today
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@gavin-holder Hi buddy!
I would start with those ones to be honest matey, on the files section there is a guide I wrote on tennis trading which needs no knowledge of the players located here.
That might help start out as well, then follow them and note down what you see, us guys in here will all help as well!
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@simon correct the break will be dangerous and swing against you, at that score and price combined as well the market has predicted that it is slowly on the way in to the win.
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Good Morning All, have been away for a while.
Now the football season is over, I really would like to get involved in Tennis trading.
I like tennis, I understand the rules, but I have so never been able to make any consistent profits.
I’m looking to adopt the @Ryan-Carruthers 3-3/4-4 strategy and @Frode-Lia PJH Method.
Is there anything else you guys think that would help a newbie to the tennis world.Really want to get this one working for me
Long time member Gav
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@ryan-carruthers said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:
@stephen-morfey Did not see that coming!
Didn't even put a fight up really! He's going on the S**t list!Wawrinka can stay on the sh*t list
Although made good money trading him today -
@ryan-carruthers said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:
@simon didn't see the game, but what sets are we talking? Also what was the score? The markets would be more open naturally in S1 but would change in S2 etc... due to the nature of the game and depending on the score could have a big outcome on the end result so naturally the price will move out further if he's broken. But without knowing the score's with entry points can't comment 100%
@Ryan-Carruthers I was involved in the first set when I was getting a good risk reward ratio (at odds of between 2.5-3), and then in the 4th when Fritz was 2-1 up (when he was about 1.5). I guess this strategy is always going to be dangerous because a break of serve will swing against you massively, and realising now clay not the best surface to adopt this either! Maybe wait for grass court season before attempting again.
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Impressed with the accuracy of the PJH stats. Been looking at mens matches where the PJH is almost identical but there is a fairly strong favourite in the markets eyes. So far 3 of the 4 I've looked at have gone to 5 sets! Small sample size but impressive nonetheless.
