2022 Tennis Trading Thread
-
@simon Ive said it before and I'll say it again you are going to be an excellent trader! The mindset you have already and discipline for somebody just finding their feet is incredible!
-
@simon said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:
Serena Williams drifting, rumors of an injury.
And she’s pulled out. Easy money
-
Serena Williams drifting, rumors of an injury.
-
@ryan-carruthers agree it is great for a quick check in the value, but his staking isn’t for me. For value bets I look at the potential return of my bet as 1 pt rather than the stake, and look to win 0.005 - 0.015% of my bank per bet depending on the value. Tend not to take anything less than 7% value and then tier it up to 20%. So 7% gets 0.005 and 20% or more 0.015 and then anything in between is pro-rates. Like I said, very conservative but should never bust a bank that way and I’m in it for the long term. Still finding my feet and what I’m most comfortable with when it comes to in play trading stake sizes. A bit different to a straight up value bet.
-
@simon which one are you using?
Kelly is very aggressive, I use it mainly for a quick check of the potential value then follow a more conservative way of staking depending on the value level :).
I agree, I think we have the basis of something very strong here!
-
@ryan-carruthers this is excellent and backs up what the stats are saying and acts as a good sense check before getting involved, belts and braces.
Would be good to have the confidence to get into them earlier as I feel there have been so many missed opportunities in just 1 week waiting for the cheap lay.
27% edge on Fognini is big for sure.
I use tiered staking based on the value on my bank I have for advantage play bets, it’s very conservative compared with Kelly who I think is very aggressive, but it’s served me very well. -
@simon Also which ever way I look at it Cilic doesn't have any value today at all!
I have basically been adding some ELO calculations on the shortlist you have created to see if we can get into them earlier - or narrow the process to add in more data. Calculator I have been using is here.
https://wismuth.com/elo/calculator.html#system=tennis-men&rating1=13&rating2=22&best_of=5
It gives a 0.48 chance of Cilic - basically a 48% chance now to get the odds of this we do 1/48 = 0.020 we then * this by 100 which gives us a true odds of 2.08.
When doing the same calculations for Fognini we get 1.96 which is a lot lower than the odds he is at the moment of 3.1. Roughly 27% value (using Kelly criterion calcs)
Basically I think what you have found is brilliant! I am wondering if we can find any correlation in value % to work alongside staking size.
-
Today's sheets guys!
-
Never managed to trade the Zverev game yesterday but again the stats proved it was tighter than the market expected. Looking to lay Cilic today, although I hope he comes through for my outright bet!!
-
Day off for me today! Wedding yesterday (not mine) so feeling slightly off my game today, be back tomorrow!
-
@simon said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:
@ryan-carruthers nice one, interested to see where it goes!
Today’s lays are Cilic, Isner & Marterer.Nothing on these today, all straight set wins for the faves. Looking to lay Zverev tomorrow.
-
@liam-couper said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:
@simon when below 1.2, yes?
@liam-couper said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:
@simon when below 1.2, yes?
Yeah if they get to 1.2 or below
Keeps it low risk. -
@simon when below 1.2, yes?
-
@ryan-carruthers nice one, interested to see where it goes!
Today’s lays are Cilic, Isner & Marterer. -
@simon I think it’s got legs indeed, low risk lays as well - at this stage all about data collection then can assess patterns and trends but I think you’ve got something - verdasco yesterday was a massive spot from this method
-
@simon said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:
@simon said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:
@ryan-carruthers yeah a good learning curve in trading tennis this, and low risk with the cheap lays so mistakes won’t cost me too much!
Today’s lays are Dimitrov, Djoko and Pouille and possibly Carreno-Busta although stats not as strong so will see how it plays out.
Verdasco 2 up and 1.2 Vs Dimitrov. Worth a lay
Wishing I’d got involved in the Carreno-Busta game now. That’s 2/3 wins so far for the dogs today using this filtering. Wonder if there’d be an angle to back them. Kachanov up on Pouille at the moment too.
-
@ryan-carruthers brilliant! Looking forward to see what you report back. Feel like this has legs but just not 100% sure on the best way to make it consistently profitable.
-
@liam-couper said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:
@simon Nice one, is there any way you can explain what you do? trying to piece it all together and I am just trying to make sure I am on the same page, Tennis trading is new to me!
(i get the stats, but how to you attack the trade with those stats is more my question)
Hi Liam, I don’t really have a strategy as of yet. I’m looking at the stats to see where the game should be tighter than the market suggests. Then when the favorite hits 1.2 or less I’m laying them for a fixed liability. Sometimes they start at less than 1.2 in which case I get in from the start. No exit strategy yet just dripping out liability if/when the odds increase. For example Djoko went out to 1.8 a few mins ago and I laid at 1.2 so I’ve removed all liability and going to see how this set plays out. I only started trading tennis a couple of weeks ago so very much finding my feet too.
-
@simon Nice one, is there any way you can explain what you do? trying to piece it all together and I am just trying to make sure I am on the same page, Tennis trading is new to me!
(i get the stats, but how to you attack the trade with those stats is more my question)
-
@simon Your idea on this has sparked something for me, I have started pulling it together this morning will report back my findings!
