2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
Todays Lays:
Mayer (Clay)
Bedene (Clay)
Ferrer (Clay)2 out of 2 on the clay
Won’t be up to trade the third one. -
@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
Having a look through today's cards and I think the following players look like good value to me:
Daniel (BF 2.36 - Me 2ish) No trade
Lajovic (BF 2.3 - Me favourite) No trade
Opelka (BF 1.66 - Me 1.5ish) 1 pt loss -
@frode-lia said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
Backing Monfils against Goffin @ 1.75
Goffin breaks, taking stop loss.
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Backing Monfils against Goffin @ 1.75
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Having a look through today's cards and I think the following players look like good value to me:
Daniel (BF 2.36 - Me 2ish)
Lajovic (BF 2.3 - Me favourite)
Opelka (BF 1.66 - Me 1.5ish) -
Todays Lays:
Mayer (Clay)
Bedene (Clay)
Ferrer (Clay)
Querry (Indoor Hard)
McDonald (Indoor Hard)I ran the same number crunching exercise I did yesterday but split them into surface specific numbers. Indoor hard is the only one currently showing no profit, so i'm going to leave them alone for now and just track them. I've had the suspicion for a while that this strat works best on slower courts.
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My trading plan for today:
I will back these players when 0-30/15/40 on serve.
New York
Opelka
Klahn
HarrisonRotterdam
Copil
Ebden
SimonI will back these players when a break down.
Garcia -
Laying Wawrinka
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@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
ATP Rotterdam Haase Vs Kukushkin
Here i have the value with Kuku. Currently priced at 2.22, I would have this as pick'em, maybe slightly favouring Kuku.
Although Haase has the stronger serve, his return stats are nothing to write home about on indoor hard over the past 12 months, and Kuku has the better hold + break % if you add the 2 together. Neither of them exactly excel on this surface, but again Kuku's win loss record over the past 12 months is superior to Haase. Only reason I can see Haase priced as favourite is due to home advantage, but i don't think it should play as big a part in the price as it seems to be, so i'm happy to take him on here.
A wee bit more fuel to the fire here, Haase has lost 9 of his last 10 games at ATP tour level.No trade - Kuku 2-0 up after first 2 games so no entry point.
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@simon Great work.
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Been crunching some numbers on my lays before they start up again this week. So these are the numbers for the 250 events I have recorded since June 2018, excluding semi finals and finals:
Dog gets broken first 42% of the time (losing trade)
Dog breaks first 39% of the time (winning trade)
Reach 4-4 with no breaks 19% of the time. (small win/scratch)Average ROI for a loss -40%
Average ROI for a win 54%
Average ROI for 4-4 3%These numbers mean that (if my maths is right) and if this strike rate continues with these ROI's, long term you're looking at 4.4% profit (after betfair commission) .
Also highlights that such a low % S/R is needed on these which should help me mentally during bad runs. -
ATP Rotterdam Haase Vs Kukushkin
Here i have the value with Kuku. Currently priced at 2.22, I would have this as pick'em, maybe slightly favouring Kuku.
Although Haase has the stronger serve, his return stats are nothing to write home about on indoor hard over the past 12 months, and Kuku has the better hold + break % if you add the 2 together. Neither of them exactly excel on this surface, but again Kuku's win loss record over the past 12 months is superior to Haase. Only reason I can see Haase priced as favourite is due to home advantage, but i don't think it should play as big a part in the price as it seems to be, so i'm happy to take him on here.
A wee bit more fuel to the fire here, Haase has lost 9 of his last 10 games at ATP tour level. -
@ryan-carruthers Will follow you on this one.
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WTA Doha 12.30 Tomljanoviv (Tom) v Hercog
BF Tom - 1.63
BF Hercog - 2.56Looking at this game it really interests me for a trade as I have value on Tom here, they both have similar styles both are big servers, both have great control over their ground strokes, but for me Tom has the better handle over the surface and these odds look good for me, I will let them both serve if they both hold then I will back Tom and look to trade out for profit if she wins the first set. I will take a loss if she gets broken.
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Two 250’s this week, New York and Buenos Aires, here’s today’s lays:
Marterer
Jarry
Ramos
Tomic
Thompson -
@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
Can’t see why Fucsovics is 2.3 Vs Berrettini, I’d have him as Favourite here today. Out and about this morning, so hopefully be back in time to trade it.
Never traded it but had a small back at the bookies at 2.25 as thought the price was value.
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Can’t see why Fucsovics is 2.3 Vs Berrettini, I’d have him as Favourite here today. Out and about this morning, so hopefully be back in time to trade it.
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@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
Another 5 lays for today:
Shapovalov
Tsonga
Verdasco
Medvedev
Tsitsipas2 wins 2 losses and small green at 4-4.
