2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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@col never got an entry point as she broke first game so the value was gone!
Great to see her win the title, seems to be so much young talent coming through and producing it in the WTA.
Also great to see Thiem win in the mens draw too. -
@simon it’s no good to you now but I thought she was. She’s a genuine star! Add to that Kerber had looked shaky at various times throughout the week and was lucky to get to that point. Very interested to see how far Andreescu can go. She has demonstrated incredible in-game mental capacity - but I wonder if she can keep it going or whether the big win and stardom could get to her head. I’m all aboard the BibiTrain
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Anyone else think Andreescu looks a value price here? When looking at the stats alone, this should be priced up much closer. However Kerber much more experience in big finals.
Will watch with interest. -
@col I track them the same way, entry X Exit X - why did I exit the trade, how did I feel in the trade.
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@Chris-Watts @Ryan-Carruthers @Simon Thanks gents. Appreciate the info. Some food for thought there.
@Chris-Watts I have considered the phase staking. Good to hear that you've used to success in the past so will definitely give this a crack.
@Simon I waited for Nishioka to go down a set before I entered., he then got broken so I exited. He ended up winning the match!!!
In the Huckarz, I entered at 1-1 and exited when he got broke. Again, comes back to win the match.. brutal.
@Ryan-Carruthers I haven't formally tracked it. I've got all my matches with some notes on where I entered and exited and how I won or butchered the trade. Do you do something similar or more formal tracking?
On another note, how good is Andreescu. She is going to be some player. Terrific all-court game. She's becoming mentally stronger every week. I could be going off early here and might be struck with some recency bias but I reckon she will do some damage at the remaining slams this year.
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@col I agree with Simon, when you’ve got the trade done win or loss turn it off and move on.
Have you been tracking different entry points? It does sound like you’ve got the reading of the games right and the stats before just the entry needs tweaking.
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@col hi Col, you could phase your stake into the market. Set a liability amount that your prepared to lose on the match then half it and use that as you entry stake. If your player gets broken you can then use some of the remaining liability allocated to change your position. This is what I do with football trading a lot and it gives you an element of flexibility. Trading can be dynamic compared to betting so don’t be afraid to change your position around. Just remember to keep your total liability in line with what you’d originally planned.
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@col hi Col, one way you could do it is to wait un til the dog goes a break down and then back them at this point? Or at least keep track of what the odds were when they got broken, and then what the odds went to when they broke back. That way you can keep a track of which way of doing it would be more profitable. i.e. does waiting for the break result in too many missed opportunities, or does it protect the bank better than going straight in?
As far as the mental side, I find it the hardest thing to deal with. To help though, once you red out I’d turn the game off and not look at it again. Then you won’t be asking yourself what if. This helps me a lot. Once the trade is done I turn it off and move on, win or lose. -
So I've liked a few dogs this week & I have been using a strat to enter trade and green up if they break & red if they get broken.
However a number of times they have been broken early in the match (I red out), only for them to break back & take the set or the following set.
Auger-Assiliame/Nishioka & Nishikori/Huckarz games to cite a couple.
This is ultra frustrating as I feel I'm reading the matches correctly and had I stayed in, I would profited nicely. It also messes with your head a lot! This has been one of the hardest sensations to deal with throughout this trading learning curve.
Anyone have any solutions for these situations? More so the strat than mental. Do I just have to cop the loss and move on? Is there an alternate strat I should look at?
Cheers
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Barty did well first set didn't she?! Wow what a first set, wasn't expecting Svitolina to do that!
@ryan-carruthers said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
WTA Indian Wells
22.00 Svitolina (BF 1.79) v Barty (BF 2.2)
Looking at this one its one I really like, Barty is a good player and her ELO ranking is high as well especially on this surface, she is a player who is known to do well under pressure, I like her ground strokes the way she connects with the ball impresses me, she’s a talent.
Svitolina is a cracking player too but she’s not mentally as strong as Barty, she’s a counter puncher though and these types of player are always tough to come up against as they really make you work.
How will I play this one?
Both players are in good form, the H2H favours Svitolina but I think Barty is value here and as you guys know most of my tennis trading takes places in the first set, I will let them both have a serve and if both players hold then I will look to back Barty as she has the value for me, I have her as fav for this one. I’ll be out at the end of the first set.
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@col I am amazed to be honest.
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@simon Wahooooo!! Well done my friend, I am looking forward to hearing more about it!
See you on the tennis after Chelts!
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Wow, Kohlschreiber knocks of Djokovic! Novak really didn't want to run into Roger this week.
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@ryan-carruthers had a shocking Indian Wells to be honest so far, not had a look at anything today as had my head into cheltenham all day, and will be the same for the rest of the week. Had a great first day though, one of my biggest days winnings
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@Simon @Frode-Lia have you guys spotted anything recently?
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WTA Indian Wells
22.00 Svitolina (BF 1.79) v Barty (BF 2.2)
Looking at this one its one I really like, Barty is a good player and her ELO ranking is high as well especially on this surface, she is a player who is known to do well under pressure, I like her ground strokes the way she connects with the ball impresses me, she’s a talent.
Svitolina is a cracking player too but she’s not mentally as strong as Barty, she’s a counter puncher though and these types of player are always tough to come up against as they really make you work.
How will I play this one?
Both players are in good form, the H2H favours Svitolina but I think Barty is value here and as you guys know most of my tennis trading takes places in the first set, I will let them both have a serve and if both players hold then I will look to back Barty as she has the value for me, I have her as fav for this one. I’ll be out at the end of the first set.
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@col @Simon
European will be brilliant, proper hours to trade
just catching up now I am back, what have I missed guys? -
@col said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
Hi guys
Is anyone able to give me a steer as to how the PJH, BPS & BPC forecasts are calculated?
I understand the exact formula might be a secret but do they take into account a certain number of most recent matches? Career matches? Matches on a specific surface only? What about the level which a player as been playing in?
Ie. Halep v Kozlova tomorrow
Halep
PJH 50.68
BPS 48.49
BPC 47.08Kozlova
PJH 55.63
BPS 52.16
BPC 50.74Another curious one was:
Nadal v Donaldson
Nadal
PJH 66.16
BPS 59.35
BPC 43.33Donaldson
PJH 67.94
BPS 55.65
BPC 39.63I understand this is this just an "experimental" model at this stage but I'm trying to work out why they would be so far out? Is it because they don't take into account the quality of player or a smaller/bigger sample size?
Cheers
Hi @Adam-Williams are you about to give us a steer here? I've been reliably informed that you are the data guru around here. Thank you
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@simon I'm petrified of the European season starting
Even Miami next week will have be up at 3am!
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@col nothing for me on that game in the end, was fast asleep by the time it started unfortunately!! Looking forward to the European season kicking in
