2022 Tennis Trading Thread

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@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

I never really like to have him on side, but Fognini at 2.14 against Albot looks a funny price to me.

Small opportunity there after the first set, did you get something out of him @simon?

Martin

@col please tag @Adam-Williams in any software questions as he created it so will know the answers for definite!

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@frode-lia Thanks Frode. So you enter when the opposition is serving, if they serve, you ride it out until your player breaks or gets broken yeah?

You mentioned getting out at the right time to ensure the strat remains profitable, I wasn't sure if it meant getting out if the opposition holds or has to break a second time but that clears it up - thanks.

Just on stop loss, do you use a automatic stop loss as part of your software or is it a manual 'stop loss' as in just taking the loss?

Thanks all

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@col

Will try to clarify:

I enter when "my" player gets one break down.
When "my" player breaks back, I green up.
If "my" player gets broken once more, I take a stop loss.

@Martin-Futter

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@col yeah Albot won at Delray Beach, and Fognini didn’t show up at all in South America, but you think he’d be more motivated at a masters. One to watch before getting involved for sure.

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@simon Had him marked as a touch of value too. That said, Albot has been in good form the last couple of weeks.

Note that Fog beat him in 3 last year and dropped the first set 6-1. Would be happy to see him drop the first set again tomorrow..:folded_hands:

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I never really like to have him on side, but Fognini at 2.14 against Albot looks a funny price to me.

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Hi guys

Is anyone able to give me a steer as to how the PJH, BPS & BPC forecasts are calculated?

I understand the exact formula might be a secret but do they take into account a certain number of most recent matches? Career matches? Matches on a specific surface only? What about the level which a player as been playing in?

Ie. Halep v Kozlova tomorrow

Halep

PJH 50.68
BPS 48.49
BPC 47.08

Kozlova
PJH 55.63
BPS 52.16
BPC 50.74

Another curious one was:

Nadal v Donaldson

Nadal
PJH 66.16
BPS 59.35
BPC 43.33

Donaldson
PJH 67.94
BPS 55.65
BPC 39.63

I understand this is this just an "experimental" model at this stage but I'm trying to work out why they would be so far out? Is it because they don't take into account the quality of player or a smaller/bigger sample size?

Cheers

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@martin-futter Cool that makes sense. I noticed in Frode-Lia's notes that he said:

"Or, take red after backed player goes down.

The last thing is the most important. It is in stoping the loses your profits lies."

Just wanted clarification on that but it might be one for him! Cheers

Martin

@col it would depend on your confidence in the player you have essentially backed's serving ability. so if you think your player will hold then stay in as if they hold you get another shot at the break, if not then maybe you can take a loss

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@Ryan-Carruthers @Martin-Futter hi gents got a question about one of @Frode-Lia WTA strats that you have posted in the past. Waiting for a player you fancy to go down a break or set and backing her.

In this strat, do you red out if the opponent holds? And if your player then holds on their next service game, do you back them again? In this scenario, your “red” figure would continue to get bigger if the players both continue to hold serve, is this correct?

Martin

@stuart-rozzier best way to find out is to try it!

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hi guys.....sorry but my brain has had a bit of a freeze...

if i was to look for value on a favourite and put a back bet in the market @ 2.0 If i wanted to put a stop loss in say at 3.0 for 50%.....what percentage of my stake would i use?

im thinking a favourite has a fight with the dog maybe loses first set hopefully i get matched...then the class shines through and fave wins......but if the dog goes on to win i want to cut my liability.

anybody think there are any legs in this?

cheers

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@ryan-carruthers The vote of confidence I need! I was red initially in the first set but went green when Babos broke early in the 2nd. She was very inconsistent though. Very much looking foward to the Cornet/Tom game.

Ryan

@col I like these!! I like them a lot.

The stats are strong I agree, I will also be looking at these

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A couple WTA matchups I like for Indian Wells tomorrow (Aus time..)

Putintseva ($1.79) v Babos ($2.26)

Tomljanovic ($1.96) v Cornet ($2.02)

I think both Babos & Cornet are value backed up by strong BTC stats.

Will look to back if they either Babos or Cornet go down a break, green up if they break back. Or take the loss if opponent holds.

If they go down a set and it looks like it's been a tight set/they're not getting wiped off the court then I will look to back them there too.

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@ryan-carruthers @Martin-Futter Thanks gents. Now to reduce my unforced errors :see-no-evil_monkey:

And yes, lovely find with Davis @Ryan-Carruthers

Ryan

@col Some nice trading

Davis was a nice little trade as well

Martin

@col great work!

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@col said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

WTA Indian Wells

Gavrilova v Yastremska

Gavrilova off to a flyer taking first set 6-2.

Laying at $1.50.

Yastremska breaks at 3-1. Greening at $2.20.