2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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@sam-maccuaig The best thing about this strategy is that is exposes you to the market of tennis trading for very little risk. I wrote a PDF on this a while back (2015) the password is 'whitelion' should help with this strategy
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@sam-maccuaig said in 2020 Tennis Trading Thread:
I have my football strategies profitable now and ticking over slowly. Looking to add a little bit of tennis just to broaden my horizons a bit. I'm looking at Martin's lay the first set winner. How do people go about this? I've no experience at all trading tennis so any key points of difference greatly appriciated.
Not an expert by any stretch of imagination and approach differs whether it’s ATP or WTA as far more breaks of serve in WTA.
Generally I will lay the 1st set winner as they are about to serve, I’ll remove a third of the liability if they are broken, remove an additional third if the player we are backing verifies the break with a hold of serve and then assess as the set moves on and either remove the final bit of liability or leave until end of set if looks secure. I will cash out at the end of the set regardless.
For WTA I may just cash out on the initial break,
If no breaks of serve will take the loss at 4-4 in all likelihood.
I’ll also take a bigger loss if the player we are opposing breaks first and holds there next service game
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@sam-maccuaig I am trying to get to grips with that too. Currently struggling with trusting my match selection. I know nothing about players and ranks etc.
I am tending to look for evenly matched (in terms of odds) players at the start of the match. Watch the first set and see if there are things like double faults, unforced errors and break points etc. Trying to get an idea about how topsy turvy the match will be.
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I have my football strategies profitable now and ticking over slowly. Looking to add a little bit of tennis just to broaden my horizons a bit. I'm looking at Martin's lay the first set winner. How do people go about this? I've no experience at all trading tennis so any key points of difference greatly appriciated.
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@james-woodroffe I was helped by the oddsmakers over-love of the Yankees after a poor season (by their standards), Rays is just a cover bet I want Yankees or Dodgers to win it (Dodgers most likely as Yanks one game away from being out)
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@martin-futter thanks mate, appreciate it. I’m going to keep an eye on it today and see what presents if anything. Nice shout on the Rays also wish I had thought of MLB outrights earlier in the season.
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@james-woodroffe said in 2020 Tennis Trading Thread:
@Ryan-Carruthers and anybody else who has any input for me. Has anyone ever traded the outright winners market late in a tournament? I’ve been able to lock in some nice green and with the women’s semi finals today there perhaps could be some good opportunities to take advantage of some price swings during the matches. I dunno if it’s something that gets done but just thought I’d ask.
Have a green Thursday gang.I trade outrights a lot late on backing Tampa Bay as a saver in the MLB for my Yankees and Dodgers trades is an example. I like it when I see a real threat to my original bet or late value (think the Bayern tip I gave for Champions League at 4.3 at the quarter-finals stage). What I like about the outrights is the odds, I find it a bit easier sometimes to spot value and the later on it is does not bother me, value is value
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@Ryan-Carruthers and anybody else who has any input for me. Has anyone ever traded the outright winners market late in a tournament? I’ve been able to lock in some nice green and with the women’s semi finals today there perhaps could be some good opportunities to take advantage of some price swings during the matches. I dunno if it’s something that gets done but just thought I’d ask.
Have a green Thursday gang. -
@chris-osborne @Martin-Futter really looking forward to Diego v Rafa. Diego was great when he beat him in Rome and agree 100% on Sinner there’s a lot to like about him. Rublev v Tsitsipas should be a good match and YES the Shwartzman v Thiem match was exceptional.
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@martin-futter Yes definitely always had an extra gear when he needed it
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@chris-osborne said in 2020 Tennis Trading Thread:
@james-woodroffe I got out at 2-1 probably leave it now.
Don’t think there will be much value unless Nadal goes at least a set and break down but liking the look of Sinner interested to see how he does.
3-0 to Nadal doesn't tell the complete story at all first two sets incredibly tight and Sinner could have won either going a break up in both sets but couldn't hold his next service game.
In hindsight he probably needed to win the first set but he comes out of that match with alot of credit. At 19 he has alot of potential in the future especially on clay and hard courts.
The five hour marathon between Schwartzmann and Thiem was one of the best games I have seen in a long while and easily the match of the tournament. What state Schwartzmann will be in when he plays Nadal on Friday who knows.
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@chris-osborne I like the fact that Kivotova has 3 Madrid titles and is easily the best player left in the draw but like you said it’s all over the place. It’s one of the joys of the WTA tour and add clay to the equation
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@simji I’ll make it a hat trick, also backed Svit after 1st set.
The women’s tournament is all over the place would think it’s Kvitova’s for the taking but who knows
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@simji I did the same when she dropped the first set had no idea that the other girl is on a ridiculous 24 match or something crazy like that winning streak.
The French tends to throw up left field winners or finalists at least on the women’s side (like last year) Was super impressed by her and had a little sprinkle on her to win the title. I’ve locked in some really nice green on the women’s outright market so it won’t be the end of the world if she doesn’t. -
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@chris-osborne can’t wait for that match mate. I’ve laid Nadal at 1.09 low risk but you never know could be an epic struggle. Kid might get a reality check.
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@james-woodroffe I got out at 2-1 probably leave it now.
Don’t think there will be much value unless Nadal goes at least a set and break down but liking the look of Sinner interested to see how he does.
