2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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Frode’s PJH model
A while back Frode shared with the community this model….
A little background. I have the last couple of years used Dan Weston projected hold models to find value in players with good serve. My results got much better going from straight stats to the projected hold model. My tennis trading is very systematical in the sence I only use five different strategies. 3 for ATP and 2 for WTA. So I use the ratings different from strategy to strategy. But as a example the strat I use the most, and with my second highest ROI for the year.
• I find WTA players with 3% pluss in their procjected hold. Ex: (dont remember exact numbers) Stephens had 63% PJH, and Azarenka had 59% PJH. Stephens was between 2.4-2.6 in pre game odds. In other words, hugh value on Ostapenko.
• I checked for injuries and so on.
• My strat is then to back Stephens every time she is one break under, or and she loses the first set.
• I would first let the players serve once each.
• On the third serve Stephens was down 3-0. I would then back Stephens for 1% (using the BTC staking calculator) on Azarenkas serve.
• Stephens broke 3-1 and I took my profit.
• Stephens lost 1 set 6-3 and lost here first serve. I went in again with 0.5% on odds over 8, and she broke once again.
• Stephens won the match 2-1.Rules for the strat is as follow:
Let both players serve once each.
Go in on first break, but not after 4-4.
Take profit after backed player goes up.
Or, take stop loss after backed player goes down.
The last thing is the most important. It is in stoping the loses your profits lies.
Theres a bit of a list tomorrow
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Happy that I got that Caruso v Fognini match spot on with Caruso winning the first and Fog the 2nd set, just a shame I couldn't be awake for it.
It would have been a lovely icing to the Kuznetsova match.
Backed Kuz early in the first for a half stake, took the red when Benic won the first set but then laid Bencic with a full stake after the first set. Took 7 points green as Kuzi equalled at 1 set a piece and myself to bed. -
@chris-osborne we pretty much on the same page tonight by the sounds of things. I’ll be watching Bencic v Kuz cause I’ll be on Kuz early and we seem to be thinking the same thing re Svitolina. Personally I don’t think I’ll get what I want from Pliskova I’m with you I think she wins tonight.
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@james-woodroffe I actually think Plisk will win tonight fairly easily although I have more interest in the Bencic game at the same time
I'll also be looking at the Kenin and Podoroska games and possibly Gauff although that will need a Svitolina slow start.
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Day 4 at the Open and my shortlist is as follows
Bencic v Kuznetsova - Thought Bencic was a little rusty in the first round and the bar brawler is always up for a fight. I'm going to look to back Kuz early doors as she is starting at 2.10 and will lay the first set winner.
Shelby Rogers v Olga Danilovic - Hoping to get Shelby around 1.85-2.0 for a back.
Muchova v Bartel - Will back Muchova if she drops the first.
Collins v Pliskova yeah @Chris-Osborne I'm going here mate and will back Pliskova if I can get her around 2.20 to avenge last week. Ideally its early in the first set and I can get in get out.
Kenin v Kanepi will back Kenin around 2-2.20 or if she drops the first set.
Putinseva v Van Ut - Will back Putinseva around 1.85-2.00 if I can get it.
Sherif v Juvan - Will back Juvan at around 2.0 if I can or will lay 1st set winner.
Coco v Svitolina - Late match on RLA so will be awake in the morning and will back Svitolina around 1.90 ideally 2.0 to 2.10
Fognini v Caruso Mmmmmm dunno if I will be awake I hope so cause I will be backing Caruso at the outset at his starting price which is great value cause Fognini is very short and ideally will take a while to get going and then I can back him around 2 when he starts to be bothered.
Again not all of these will qualify so will just wait and see how the night pans out.
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@chris-osborne Ahhh you and me both with Andrescu mate she threw me under the red bridge before I knew what was going on. Managed to lay Dias when she won the first and got out when Pera consolidated the break because Cornet put me thru the wringer. Was going to green up early in the 2nd when she had break points for a double break but of course that didn’t happen but fortunately greened up in the breaker in the 2nd. got Kvitova at something like 2.38 in the first and greened up at 1 set all. Fat Stan cost me and Simona rescued me but I greened up after the first set to get back to scratch for the day.
Onwards and upwards for day 4 and Yep some pretty good match ups to look forward to. -
All I can say about today is thank you Simone Haley for somehow turning that match round and digging me out of a hole caused Andreescu trying to over power Hsieh and probably looking like she hadn’t played for 18 months
Also had a freebet on Kvitova at which point sleep got the better of me only to wake up to find she lost to Cirstea who she should be beating every time.
Some decent looking games tomorrow, Gauff v Svitolina could be interesting and Karolina Pliskova gets a quick chance of revenge against Danielle Collins who beat her last week. Having said that will not be trading Pliskova as she is a complete liability.
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Pretty cool shortlist for tonight in so much as over half are the first matches on court and the other half are 2nd matches.
There might be a couple in the evening session.Lay First Set Winner
Andrescu v Hseih 1st on RLA
Cornet v Li 1st on Court 8
Diyas v Pera 2nd on Court 8Back the following if they drop 1st Set
SABALENKA v Kasakstina 1st on MCA
VONDRUSOVA v Marino 1st on 1573
KVITOVA v Cirstea 2nd match on MCA
OSAKA v Garcia 1st match RLA night session
SWIATEK v Georgi 3rd match on John Cain (will depend on time of morning if after 8am more likely)Back Stan Wawrinka at 1.85-2.00 v Fucsovics 1st match on John Cain
Back Potapova at 1.85-2.0 v Babos 1st match Court 3Obviously some will not qualify but hopefully we can lock in some nice green early.
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@chris-osborne mate the Pliskova sisters remind me of the Dementors or whatever they’re called in the Harry Potter books who just suck the life out of things. Just two soulless ball hitting machines. I should have known better cause Kristina is terrible.
I’m not to fussed cause I’ll take the silver lining that the Putinseva match and the other one went to plan I just wasn’t on them.
I’ll check out tomorrow’s order of play and hopefully I’ll find some matches in a reasonable cluster that I really like.
Early days Chris for us to really capitalise still. -
@james-woodroffe unlucky James, cricket and tiredness got the better of me also.
Those Pliskova sisters are a nightmare to trade, karolina has cost me a fair bit of cash I’m now avoiding.
A couple of trades for me, both turning 1pt profit in the Vedic and Martic games.
Vedic was laying Wang after broke in the final set and Martic I backed after she lost the first set removing liability throughout the set. Fortunately cashed out or would have been a scratch trade as she lost the final set
Massive escape from Konta’s retirement as would have been in that game if not for work reasons
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Typical
the useless Pliskova costs me my 1 and only trade today and after England set up victory in the cricket and I closed out thought I’d steal a couple of hours sleep.
Putinseva drops the first and goes on to beat Stephens and Bill Murray drops the 2nd before she recovered to win. I think from my short list that’s all that qualified but I was asleep during those last two so Red day.
No cricket for a few days so all attention on the Open. -
@chris-osborne I found a really good article on reducing liability when things don’t go to plan which helped me on the cricket also.
Basically if you feel you’ve got it wrong remove half your liability, yeah you’re looking at a red screen but it gives you the option to back the player who is now in control and the favourite you don’t want to over commit to early if you get it wrong and it leaves you open to options. -
Short List for Day 2 at the Open and obviously these will not all get traded nor will some qualify.
WTA
Elise Mertens back if she gets out over 1.80 in the first set or drops the first set against Leah Fernandez.
Bencic vs Davis back Bencic if she gets out to 1.80 or drops the first.
Putinseva v Stephens. Back Putinseva if she drops the first set.
Kristina Pliskova v Heather Watson - Lay 1st set Winner.
Gauff v Teichman lay 1st set winner Back Coco around 2’s.
Danielle Collins v Bogdan. Back Collins around 1.80 in 1st back her if she drops the first set.
Kontaveit v Sasnovich. Back Kontaveit if she drops the 1st.
Zheng vs Krecjikova (aka Bill Murray) lay 1st set winner.
Sevastova v Kanepi Back Kanepi around 1.80 or if she drops the first set.
Dan Evans v Cam Norrie Back Evans at 1.80 or if he drops the first.
Fognini v Hughes-Humbert Back Fognini around 2.10-2.25 if he starts slow.
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This post is deleted!
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@james-woodroffe Nice way to ease yourself into it especially with Cricket at the same time.
Strange day for me, tried something which didn't work but would do again, one trade I shouldn't have entered, 1 trade that I'd do again but didn't work out and final trade was the only one I was happy with: -
Boulter v Kasatkina - I though this would be close and go to three sets, Kasatkina has been awful since play returned in August and Boulter did ok last week. However, Boulter was shocking in this match couldn't serve to save her life, laid KAsatkina after she broke in 1st set but she took the set easily. Laid her again at the start of the 2nd set and although it was a bit more competitive, she took it out in straight sets. - 2pt loss
Tig v Cirstea - Cirstea dominated the 1st set and I shouldn't have entered but laid her at start of the second set but she dominated this set also - 1pt loss
Halep v Cabrera - Halep was such a short price and she looked injured last week, laid her in case the injury flared up again but the result was never in doubt - 1pt loss
Rybakina v Zvonanreva - This was a tight three set game, both players had chances and could have gone either way. Rybakina lost the first set but narrowly won the next two to scrape through. Initialy laid Rybakina in 1st set after she broke exiting when Zvon broke back for bit of profit. Backed Ryb at start of second set and then rebacked after she lost serve in the second game. Would have exited if no sign of a break back but she broke back at 3-3. Removed liability at various points thereafter to leave a free bet on Rybakina at the end of the set. Should have cashed out after she broke serve early in the 3rd but Zvon broke back straight away at which point my nerve failed me and cashed out - 3pts Profit
One area I need to look at is removing liability when a trade starts going against me such as the Boulter game. I have no issue doing so if trade is profitible but never sure how to approach if not worked out as I wanted.
Overall a 1pt loss but could have been worse
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Eased into day 1 of the Open and traded just the two matches which had some good and some bad to
leave me at scratch.
First the good got in a Back of Venus at 2.0 after she was broken in the 7th game of the opening set against Flipkens.
Venus had started at about 1.60 so it was a nice price to get her at. She broke back straight away to even up at 4-4 and games went on serve till Flipkens was broken serving to stay in the set at 5-6 and the price on Venus went down to 1.16 so I greened up and moved on. Hindsight I should have just removed liability as Venus cruised thru the 2nd but I've seen her drop sets to many times to be bothered with a 3rd and plus it was a quick trade and I decided that I needed sleep I think all up I was in the market for about 15 minutes.Sadly the next trade couldn't have gone more opposite. Again after being broken I managed to back Vondrusova in her match at the attractive odds of 2.28 and again she broke back against Peterson almost immediately but was broken again as Peterson cruised 6-2 in the first. I laid Peterson after the first set and Vondrusova was broken again at the start of the 2nd. I hit my stop loss and got out only for Vondrusova to then get it together and take the 2nd set.
Hindsight again I should have just seen out the first set as Vondrusova was clearly struggling to get out of first gear and its something I should have picked up on plus laying WTA players up a set and a break is as we all know a very profitable strategy especially when its the dog.Working on my shortlist for day 2 now and looking for a green day.
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Just realised that the order of play is for the TV courts only the full order of play is on the Oz open app or website.
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@martin-futter said in 2020 Tennis Trading Thread:
@james-woodroffe said in 2020 Tennis Trading Thread:
@chris-osborne said in 2020 Tennis Trading Thread:
@james-woodroffe Its not going to be empty there are 22.5k fans allowed not full but better than could have been. What Brady has achieved will never happen again, although I can only see the Chiefs winning easily
Oh that changes a fair bit then 22.5K is definitely better than an empty stadium.
couldn't care less about the fans in America, just love me some NFL! Can't wait.
Hoping we get some games in the UK next season
well yeah there is that and it is the Super Bowl. I can’t remember the last time I watched it and it wasn’t 10am on a Monday in Melbourne and I was already half cut. Watching it in the early hours will be different. -
@james-woodroffe said in 2020 Tennis Trading Thread:
@chris-osborne said in 2020 Tennis Trading Thread:
@james-woodroffe Its not going to be empty there are 22.5k fans allowed not full but better than could have been. What Brady has achieved will never happen again, although I can only see the Chiefs winning easily
Oh that changes a fair bit then 22.5K is definitely better than an empty stadium.
couldn't care less about the fans in America, just love me some NFL! Can't wait.
Hoping we get some games in the UK next season
