Attacking Betfair Trading
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EOM Update place last trrade of the month losing one which is annoying but worked out how many points ive made this month and i am happy. TBH i been mainly doing SHG have my own filter but i have been following over peoples trades that are posted on the forum. Again mainly been sticking to proven memebrs plans. I have been trading the Euro games so far been good to me as thats got me 7 points this month just on SHG
This month total points is + 21
I am going to post daily starting this month how i am getting on everyday just results not what trades doing as manily following whats the main BTC football and members filters. Just posting for myself to keep me honest but if anyone does have questions or advise please feel free to post
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Hi All,
I know ive not posted in a while ive just people advise and had a re think of my trading. ATM i just been following peoples tried and tested methods like split stake,SHG, LTD (stuarts) & Lay U1.5 (keiths). Its going be going well alot less stressful and easier to mange and track, I am going to post again my daily results but i am going to wait to after the euros atm as ive not had many games atm coming on my filter. I will just be following peoples stradgies with my own SHG filter so wont be anything groundbreaking but i find posting helps keep me honest and good for reflecting on my trading.
little update so far this month i am up +14 Points ( would of been more but SHG last two days not been great but happens) i have two pre tournements bets
1 belgium to win the group ( won first game removed red ) so if they win thats one point
2 backed france thought were good value and layed england so after group stages ill see where i am with this and may cash outHope everyone is doing well and having green months. Just bit of a update ill be back posting shortly. Thanks again for everyones help.
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Hi
So had a good weekend break from trading was busy with family commitments so after much talking i realised the error of my ways and how it could go wrong and how with my recovery method i was actually hindering my plan. My goal was to profit from when one goal goes on no matter during the game. I wanted one team to be alot better than other. Thanks to talks with @Darri i realised by laying 0-0 at uping the stakes i was adding more risk and actually could lose alot of money. Even though i was cashing out at 80min at 0-0 to take a loss i was missing out on more goals and often goals are scored between 80 to 90. So i have tweaked it slightly and be trailing it now so new plan is use 1 point on FHG split 20% on 1.5,2,2.5,3 & 3.5. If 0-0 at HT i will then i will lay 0.5 Points at odds of 5 ( if odds arent at 5 i will put the bet into the market and see if it gets matched) if still 0-0 later on i will put a second trade i of0.75 points at 3. This will then just reduce my risk so i am going to be trying this out starting today. as just trying this instead of posting my todays selections ill just post results from now as just traling this.
Massive thank you to @Darri as ive asked him about a million questions haha
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@james-rome said in Attacking Betfair Trading:
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@darri said in Attacking Betfair Trading:
I think we have come up with a nice tweak on this new strategy since i the previous post which is awesome
means we dont have to do anything too drastic strategy wise just restructure the staking to avoid big liabilities. Its still a risky amount in general but its manageable in my eyes cause this is your main strategy so your liability isnt on other things. Only time will tell if this will be a good tweak.Massive thank you to @Darri i wont be trading this weekend got plans but excited to give this a try. also thanks for having to explain stuff to me over and over haha :face_with_tears_of_joy: :face_with_tears_of_joy:
Im glad Im not the only one he has to explain things over and over to then
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@darri said in Attacking Betfair Trading:
I think we have come up with a nice tweak on this new strategy since i the previous post which is awesome
means we dont have to do anything too drastic strategy wise just restructure the staking to avoid big liabilities. Its still a risky amount in general but its manageable in my eyes cause this is your main strategy so your liability isnt on other things. Only time will tell if this will be a good tweak.Massive thank you to @Darri i wont be trading this weekend got plans but excited to give this a try. also thanks for having to explain stuff to me over and over haha :face_with_tears_of_joy: :face_with_tears_of_joy:
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@darri said in Attacking Betfair Trading:
I think we have come up with a nice tweak on this new strategy since i the previous post which is awesome
means we dont have to do anything too drastic strategy wise just restructure the staking to avoid big liabilities. Its still a risky amount in general but its manageable in my eyes cause this is your main strategy so your liability isnt on other things. Only time will tell if this will be a good tweak.thats fantastic Darri.
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I think we have come up with a nice tweak on this new strategy since i the previous post which is awesome
means we dont have to do anything too drastic strategy wise just restructure the staking to avoid big liabilities. Its still a risky amount in general but its manageable in my eyes cause this is your main strategy so your liability isnt on other things. Only time will tell if this will be a good tweak. -
Iv been looking at the sheets thoroughly because really iv been quite vocal and i want to get this right. There are a few things i think we can do here to restructure this so we dont have to go off trading different things.
First part on the FHGs what have you been doing differently from 7th march onwards? I see the int had a huge run of green for these which put it in profit. Before this the FHGs actually were not in profit. Have you changed the FHGs in anyway during that time or are we just off the back of a lucky patch? This is why we need to keep testing these to see how best we can get these right. Keep going with your testing of both versions. The hardest thing about the old data is the measuring of the split stakes to see if the alternative version would get matched. Thats why testing both is needed.
2nd part is i think we keep these 0-0 lays but change from the mindset of a recovery from the 1st half. Because of the selection process of favourites only this means we are often getting pretty big fluctuations of odds. Sometimes nice small ones of 4.5 but others are upwards of 7-9s like the barca game, on your sheets thats hidden by the fact you re entered again after 80 mins which reduced the odds. the issue is they wont profit from the FH as the loss will surpass but its not as risky and in the end you reduce the loss on the FH. But im thinking we can re structure a staking plan to cover this and iv also given an alternative.
Heres my suggestions obviously these can be tweaked:
at HT if still 0-0:
odds greater than 5.0 to lay our stake could be 0.5pt
this means our max liability can work within the ranges between 7-9 which is the heavy favs and is same liability as what i would say for odds less than 5.0
odds less than 5.0 to lay our stake could be 1pt
This means our max liability is still the same as the higher odds but we profit more because we are taking better prices for same max risk. We would still need a good strike rate for these to work, but typically 0-0s are often priced better than any other scoreline at HT-60mins
Instead of the liabilities that you were using before typically 16-50 points i know you cashed out at 80min but still 65-70% of a 50 point loss is extremely risky. Now your max loss is only ever going to be 4pts and we can stay in the whole trade so can set these up and let it run. A high number of goals are scored from 70-FT. So instead of being 4/5/6 losses in a row away from a massive reduction in bank if you lose 4/5/6 in a row its only ever going to be just a quarter of the bank at max. THESE dont cover the FHG loss SO:
Split stake the 0-0s break even/profit**
You could enter at HT with the above and then if odds reach 3.0 enter again for 1pt. This would add 2pts to the risk. So a max loss of 6pts on the lays, but you wont always be getting in with the max odds ranges. So really only a 5/5.5 risk. Based on before these would not be even close to those losses and actually this split would mean you could make more than you did on them before with less risk. Obviously all depends on if you keep finding winners. This also means that you then full cover the FHG loss and if getting on games from 5.0 downwards at HT could profit from them.Another thing is to allow for variance to breathe. Before you were compounding the bank everyday. This might be something you have learnt from the horse racing guys who scalp pre race, who are unlikely to field losing days if done well. Caan berry and peter webb have done videos on this before. But for football variances from inplay tends to be higher. So what i think we could do here is to think about compounding after set targets. These could be targetting a set new bank level. If your at £1k right now, we could wait till we hit £1.5k. Another one is waiting till end of month. Another could be to wait 100 trades. All of these allows for several trades to be processed meaning the unlucky trades and losses can be allowed time to be swallowed up. Like iv said to you as an example by compounding a £1k bank and making around 10% every month in theory (we dont account for betfair charges or withdrawals) thats a decent bank after 3 years.
Now obviously what you have to remember here is that both strategies are on the same games. But the risk was the recovery trades you were taking. The laying 0-0s isnt a bad strategy in fact most of the guys on here do that. It was just the risk involved. I think these could be a nicer way to find out if these work long term rather than the old way. As i say just my suggestion, iv said many times its not the strategy but the risk involved.
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Yeah knew it was obvious mate lol.
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@eamonn-hogan yes because based on what you have said.
At the start each point is £10 which is 1% of your bank meaning your starting bank is £1000
You then make 100 points so your now £1000 in profit now the bank should be £2000, meaning now you can up each point to = £20 again 1% of the bank.
1% of the bank is always the same no matter what, thats why the points system is so easy to measure and use.
BUT based on what your now saying your not actually increasing the bank, its still a £1000 bank each point should stay the same. It should not then 10x for the same bank level, your just then using 10 points/10% of bank for those staking so of course youll lose more as your 10x the stake. So what you are saying is your increasing your staking 10x the amount but not increasing it in line with the bank instead your just increasing stakes, doesnt make sense bud. Your just changing the whole strategy by 10x times the amount of risk.I never try make anyone look stupid mate, i find it easy to understand others dont sometimes it just comes across that way but im just trying to help make it sound as basic as possible to understand. Please get rid of the money metric to measure success, iv attached the blog martin did i think he explains it better than me.
Whatever your bank level is just find out what 1% of it is and that 1 point its really that simple. As your bank grows 1% also grows inline with it.
£100 = 1% is £1
£200 = 1% is £2
£1000 = 1% is £10
£2500 = 1% is £25 -
Sorry for this silly question but I’m a bit slow sometimes.
If I was using points as you say Darri eg £10 a point and I was up 100 points (£1000)
Then when I upped my stakes when I reached £1000 to £100 a point and lost 10 points (£1000). I have made £0 but my strategy is up 90 points.
Would I not believe I had a good strategy if I was up 90 points?Obviously you will correct me here and make feel stupid lol
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@Darri well i have another sheet were i keep my monthly balances to track account growth so i can work back to work out points staked so i think while i am taking a break going to track back and see if i can add that data in. for eveything just to see for myself as i just mainly look at the pound signs tbh. might be a handy excerise for myself to see the risk reward and points growth for different plans .
cheers mate thats points breakdown has got me thinking as i do just look at pound sign and can see how i was getting fooled now.
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@james-rome no problem mate, didnt take me as long as you think, just know what im looking for. You have the right mindset for trading i can tell so when your refreshed and back, keep us updated on how it goes.
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@Darri Just wanted to start off and say thank you mate alot of detail in those posts must have taken some time so thank you ! !!! So its making sense now when you said about the loan I started thinking i would not recommend that to a family member so why should i trade like that. So I get the points now i think i was misunderstanding it before from your example I am going to start recording that as well. I really wish i had recorded that now i am kinda kicking myself now !! I been thinking I think for the rest of the week take a step back from trading just have a rethink do some research on how to go forward. Since you mentioned it about changing i been thinking could this work as a split O1.5 maybe. Plus busy at work as well so maybe good to take the week think about how to go on. I did trade unders and i wanted to look at that again i hit some losers but that maybe have been the varainces. I feel like ive been gambling when i thought i was trading and while like you say i got a good bank size i should take a step back for a bit and think about it. Also stuff like stake mangement properly for LTD and U2.5
Thank you very much for your help espically @Darri i got alot to think about what i am going do. I am going to have a read other people blogs see what they do get some new ideas. Once ive had a thought ill post what i am thinking of doing if people want to comment feel free. When i post what i am going to do going forward i am going to go a bit more detail like staking plans etc
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So iv done the points allocation based on roughly the odds your posting up, you must be doing some other trades to affect those prices as they are not tradeable. But the 0-0 lays are based on a points system so iv basically stripped this right down to the FHGs being just 1% of you bank and then you using a recovery of 2% which is exactly what you have been doing in terms of doubling the initial stake. Your compounding is hiding how badly these lays are to your trading, im trying to explain that simply but its hard, but essentially you keep covering the losses of each 0-0 lay by upping your stakes for the next batch of losses etc. example you lay for lets say odds of 6.0 using £2 stake, thats a total win of £2 but loss of £10. Your masking this up because as your bank grows your increasing the stakes to hide that loss. So now lets say your bank is now bigger and stake £10 for exact same thing your potential loss is bigger £50 but you won £10 so it hides how bad the strategy is performing. I hope this clears this part up as to what i mean by your masking and being duped by compounding from the other parts of this strategy. Your basically recovering the recovery bet, just look at the first half of your sheets to see how a bad run can impact the bank. Its just the same as getting a loan to cover another loan the more times you do this the more you need to keep covering. Like i said before easy to say that at the £1k level but you keep doing this and manage to get it to £10k-£20k the liabilities would be much bigger.
FHGs for you will make at least x times more. Paper test them on the side if you want to see it for yourself. Im glad tonight was not a big loss and given how the other games went id assume you are close to break even for the night but hopefully this is enough info for you to see clearly best course of action.
Edited this post a few times and went away and thought about it a bit, just to try make sure it makes sense. I want you to stick around and be profitable, not everyone gets to that point. Also you said to martin about how many points you had made thats just how much bank growth you have had not how many points the strategy as a whole has made. Because your compounding aggressively thats not how many points you have made for the strategy. Its much less. Because you have been upping stakes at different levels the points consistency isnt the same as your measuring here, your measuring exact money rather than points, id say your around the +80-100 points made in total. What im saying here is for example look at my sheets, my late goals are up 11.67 the past month and 2 weeks. If i was basing my points based on actual money and compounding it would be way higher, the reason it is at 11.67 is because im basing my points based on the level of bank i had at the time of trade, i havent yet compounded that yet but a point i8s still a point/1% of a bank is always 1% at the time. Thats why we say 1pt is 1% of bank always and never changes, why its the best way to measure. I wish i was able to tell you exactly what points you had made from the whole thing and be able to give an exact answer, but split staking and not knowing your points early for FHGs is too hard for me to find out.
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ill try to a points allocation for the 0-0 lays to explain, but as im looking these odds dont make sense. Like they dont exist. For example, newcastle 5.23 isnt an odds range, real madrid 4.39 also isnt, there are loads of these odds prices listed on your sheets. Are you doing other trades also which are affecting these prices?
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@james-rome keep the money if you want mate, but measuring based off it is not the way to go. If you see stock traders talk about how the markets gone up x amount they also always follow that up by saying x% or x points. Best way to measure.
You dont have to do anything iv said mate, im only advising a different course of action. I see that these arent sustainable based on your sheets. The recommendation is to scrap the recovery side of it. Instead start trading each strategy on its own merits. The barca game was high odds and your strike rate of 78% for a SHG is not enough to sustain that level of laying. So instead id look to try see if you could improve that strike rate by looking at other angles to add. So the current FHGs you are tracking the 2 different versions so see what does better, but make sure its based on points not money. Then try come up with a 2nd half alternative to bring these odds down for the lays i just think you should avoid this based on how your selecting right now. Right now there isnt a structure as to what is good value. Everything we do to get an edge over the markets is based on value/price. The coin toss example 50/50 chance so we need evens to long term break even, but if we are offered 2.2 to back then we profit long term despite the losses in certain runs. Your trading right now has a 78% of winning but your laying at odds far too high compared to the lay prices you need. Right now your afraid of losses hence the recovery trades. Trying to get every game right is unrealistic. Right now your just trading based off list with no focus on price. You could look into whether or not the LTD at HT instead, or try wait inplay for prices to fall. There are plenty of guides on here about what to look for in a 2nd half trade. Iv done plenty myself on my blog.
Im glad your seeing it a bit clearer now. Your being duped by the money you keep inputting rather than the success of the strategy probably because you like seeing the money column who doesnt. But its why money isnt on my sheets because we can be fooled by it, iv learnt that the hard way. I could lay the underdog and win 60 trades in a row only for the next 40 to cripple my bank. Risk reward is absolute paramount and im happy iv caught you early enough but i hope you make the adjustments soon. Tonight was good as it was a decent priced lay but these barca and croatia odds are not sustainable with your strike rate.
I know this all sounds weird given your in profit, but so could i if i laid the underdog at those prices for 100 trades only for me to lose 4-5 and be crippled, there is no security with these trades to protect against randomness. Remember its not the accumulated profits your eating into, as your bank grows your stakes do also so a loss is still relative to the bank. Its why we say use points to measure. I did this with you stuff and the 0-0s are losing you potential profits. Already stated how much more money youd be making if you moved just half the liability from the recovery 0-0 lays onto the FHGs. But ill keep tabs on how your doing mate, any questions just ask. Just remember the house example post and also not to measure on money. Right now money aspect is clouding your results. So also think back to what i said about the neymar thing you throw money to make it look profitable at first but when you take a look at the product it soon fails when the pump stops.
Happy to be wrong!!
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@darri
@darri said in Attacking Betfair Trading:
@james-rome @Martin-Futter did a good blog post about why we use points to measure our trading should be in the blogs section of the site. For me it helps me measure how a strategy is doing. For examples as my bank grows so do my stakes, so how can i truly compare how im doing throughout my trading journey. So say i started with £6 stakes but now im at £60 stakes it becomes very hard to measure if your doing better or worse. Points, i use 1 pt is 1% of bank, that allows me to keep it consistent. 1% of the bank will always be 1% of the bank regardless. So i can track my success on a strategy. By using money we can mask how well things do. Its like lumping more money into a startup company to keep surviving but eventually it needs to be sustainable at its current state to survive.
Yep two strategies one FHG and the other SHGs. This way you can improve on both rather than on a recovery based method. Your already tracking the FHG option so maybe track the SHGs too and then you can see what im talking about with how the 0-0 lays are just waiting for bad variance and its just because you keep upping stakes to hide that they wont work on their own. Not a criticism btw i used to do this exact thing of masking profits without knowing it and its just because your measuring it with money rather than roi and yield or points.
Good thing tonight is that it wasnt gonna be as big a loss as say the barca game or croatia game. Hopefully your seeing how prices and strike rates really are the ways to make things sustainable.
i see ill add a points coloumn to mine now ill keep the stake in pound in i just prefer to have it in make sense
yeah so after tonight and yesteday cogs are turning can see what you mean about hiding money in SHG. The question i have though say for the barcelona game last night i dont think was a bad trade idea to get involded second half looking for a goal just odds where to high . Its just i am thinking if i run two FHG and SHG is it not just the same but lowering the loss or removing the red from FHG is that not what i am doing now ?. I hope that makes sense what i am trying to say
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@james-rome @Martin-Futter did a good blog post about why we use points to measure our trading should be in the blogs section of the site. For me it helps me measure how a strategy is doing. For examples as my bank grows so do my stakes, so how can i truly compare how im doing throughout my trading journey. So say i started with £6 stakes but now im at £60 stakes it becomes very hard to measure if your doing better or worse. Points, i use 1 pt is 1% of bank, that allows me to keep it consistent. 1% of the bank will always be 1% of the bank regardless. So i can track my success on a strategy. By using money we can mask how well things do. Its like lumping more money into a startup company to keep surviving but eventually it needs to be sustainable at its current state to survive. Its like lumping money on getting neymar to advertise your next set of trainers you see a huge turn in revenue but if your product isnt good enough in first place then it wont last. We can only know that in trading if we measure how good the actual strategy is, for me thats best done with points/% of bank.
Yep two strategies one FHG and the other SHGs. This way you can improve on both rather than on a recovery based method. Your already tracking the FHG option so maybe track the SHGs too and then you can see what im talking about with how the 0-0 lays are just waiting for bad variance and its just because you keep upping stakes to hide that they wont work on their own. Not a criticism btw i used to do this exact thing of masking profits without knowing it and its just because your measuring it with money rather than roi and yield or points.
Good thing tonight is that it wasnt gonna be as big a loss as say the barca game or croatia game. Hopefully your seeing how prices and strike rates really are the ways to make things sustainable.
