MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY
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Afternoon update for April for the two systems i have been trading again another profitable month. Staking was £5.66 a trade
System 1 - Back the draw at K/o version B( Odds 3.50 +)
Trades 30
Won 9
Lost 21
S/Rate 30%
Profit £11.13System 2- Injury Time goal ( last 5 matches version B)
Trades 40
Won 9
Lost 31
S/rate 22.25%
Profit £56.90New trading bank for May was £634.63, with the 1% liability stakes of £6.34 stakes.
I have been paper trading lots of other systems and i am now in a position to start adding to my portfolio of stategies
Laying the home team at kick off odds 5.0-7.0 ( check h2h)
I have had 4 profitable months out of 5, this isn't a huge return but adds to the bank
results since December based on testing at £10 liability stakes
Trades 114, won 99, lost 15, s/rate 86.84% profit £59.88Back Draw at k/o version Z ( this is based on h2h results and elo max of 100 between the two sides odds 3.0+) I have been recording since January, again based on £10 stakes
Trades 249
Won 89
Lost 160
S/rate 35.74%
Profit £496.92Back u2.5 goals ft (1.70-2.30 odds + check h2h) , again paper trading this since January
Trades 171
Won 100
Lost 71
S/rate 58.48%
Profit £260.67Finally Back under 1.5 goals ft version D ( 3-0-3.55 odds), this has been tested since January
Trades 371
Won 134
lost 237
s/rate 36.12%
Profit £528.85 -
@Shannon-Townsend said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard really good results... what do you look for with regards injury time goals? I have been looking at the laying low option but going in a bit scatter gun approach...
My injury goal filter is based on the last 5 games for each side and i look for odds under 1.30 on the laying under the next goals market on 90 mins mate
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Evening All , a brief update on my two strategies for March.
System 1- BACK DRAW AT KO VERSION B ( 3.50+)
TRADES 40
WON 13
LOST 27
S/RATE 32.50%
PROFIT £47.56System 2 - INJURY TIME GOAL VERSION B
TRADES 61
WON 18
LOST 43
S/RATE 29.51%
PROFIT £97.17The starting trading bank for March was £421.87 , but i carried on with the previous staking due to the time i had recorded my results in February was so late.
So my new bank for April is £566.60, and a new liability stake of £5.66 (1% of my bank)I have loads of paper trading results to analyse from March so will update in a few days time on these
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@james-everard really good results... what do you look for with regards injury time goals? I have been looking at the laying low option but going in a bit scatter gun approach...
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Evening , a rather belated update for February. Been busy with work and just got around to finally finishing off recording the data. Started with a trading bank for February at £308.81 with 1% liabilty stakes. Carried on with the two systems but been paper trading loads more hence the delay in recording all the results.
System 1 - INJURY TIME GOAL VERSION B
TRADES 68
WON 22
LOST 46
S/RATE 32.35%
PROFIT £111.53System 2 - BACK THE DRAW AT K/O VERSION B ODDS 3.50+
TRADES 38
WON 11
LOST 27
S/RATE 28.95%
PROFIT £1.53Not good on the back the draw , but still a small profit, the injury time goal system is doing really well and building my bank up nicely
The new balance is £421.87. Because of the delay in catching up with the results i have carried on using £3.08 stakes for March , which i shall carry on doing until the beginning of April. I will make sure i record the results for March before the start of April so i can using my new staking plan .Of the other strategies i have been paper trading, several are looking promising so will update more at the end of the month if any meet my criteria of 3 straight profitable months of paper trading
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Really pleased how it is going now , my mentality is good and i have managed to tripple my bank from £100 at the beginning of December to more £300 allowing me to increase my stakes. Hopefully February continues in the same vain
That's Amazing!
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Morning all rather late update for January's results. I scrapped the system of backing over 1.5 goals as looking at the return it wasn't worth continuing ( all you need is some variance and big losses can occur). So i just traded the two other systems which have proved profitable again for January. my starting bank for January was £233.01 with 1% stakes of £2.33
Strategy 1- Back the draw at kick off version B( odds 3.50 +)
Trades 23, won 7,lost 16,s/rate 30.43% Profit £9.41Strategy 2- Injury time goal version B( Lay the under goals market on 90 getting around 1.30 or below odds)
Trades 43, Won 14,lost 29, s/rate 32.56% Profit £66.39So the new trading bank for February is now £308.81, with a new stake (based on 1% of my bank is £3.08)
I have been paper trading various other systems as well , some have proving not profitable but some are looking good. With my paper trading i am looking for 3 profitable months before i start thinking about taking on any new strategies with real money, two of which have had 2 months of looking good so i will evaluate at the end of the month if they are ok to start trading in March.
Really pleased how it is going now , my mentality is good and i have managed to tripple my bank from £100 at the beginning of December to more £300 allowing me to increase my stakes. Hopefully February continues in the same vain -
@james-everard that's really good! well done!
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Evening all , my update from Decembers trading . I started trading three strategies last month after 4 months of paper trading but decided to stop the original 1 strategy i was trading in November.
My version of Martins back over 1.5 goals system which i reversed to back under 1.5 goals between the odds range of 3.0-4.50 i decided to ditch. I was making really good money at the start of November but things started to turn half way through which i carried on for the remainder of that month. I decided to paper trade this for December instead to see if it was variance but glad i didn't put any money down in December as would have lost 57 points so glad i have decided to ditch.
So the three systems i started last month were as follows , my trading bank had increased to £126.00 at the start of December with stakes being 1% (£1.26 )System 1 - BACK OVER 1.5 GOALS VERSION A (MIN ODDS 1.25)
Trades 31
won 23
lost 8
s/rate 74.19%
points 0.87
ROI 2.81%
Profit £1.10System 2 - BACK THE DRAW AT K/O VERSION B ( ODDS 3.50+)
Trades 36
Won 13
Lost 23
s/rate 36.11%
Profit £15.95
Points profit 12.66
ROI 35.16%System 3 - INJURY TIME GOAL VERSION B ( LAST 5 MATCHES) ENTER 89MINS
Trades 80
Won 25
Lost 55
S/rate 31.25%
Points profit 71.39
Profit £89.96
ROI 89.25%So systems 2 and 3 and doing really well hopefully they continue this month also. i am paper trading various other systems also so hopefully other systems will come into play at a latter stage.
My new trading bank has increased significantly from December and now sits at £233.01 and with 1% stakes my new stakes will be £2.33 -
@james-everard good work mate!
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Right that time of the month again where i review the previous month.
As stated on this blog last month after 3 months of paper trading i was happy enough to start with a £100.00 bank this month just using 1% stake on just one strategy.
The value of the stakes was very important to me as i want to be extremely disciplined this time around.
Anyway the system i started trading was a variation of Martin back over 1.5 goals , but i have reversed the system and was backing under 1.5 goals if the odds range at kick off was between 3.0-4.5.
Trades 96
Won 35
Lost 61
S/rate 36.46%
Profit of £26.00
Or 26 points profit.So really pleased with system for November, and typically since i have now upped my stakes to £1.26 this month i have had 10 losses out of 10. But last month i had a similar start but with the opposite results.
I have been paper trading lots of systems over the last 3 months and i am now prepared to trade another 3 system using the minimum stakes
They are a Back the Draw at Kick off which has had a great start with 3 wins out of 4 today, a back over 1.5 goal system at kick off and finally an injury time goal strategy. -
@Martin Thanks Martin, a good start this weekend as well . I have started off with a £100 bank just using £1 stakes and up £14.23 in profit over the weekend.
Should have done this from the outset of collating data and stats , picking apart systems and finding an edge.
Any newbies i would suggest you do this as well , no money on any trading until you are happy that you have a system that will be profitable -
@james-everard that's excellent good work!
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Morning All. Thought i would update on my paper trading strategies. I have been testing quite a few different systems to try and find some angles. Some of which which would have lost money this month , but analysing the data i have now tweaked some slightly and will carry on paper trading this month to see if the tweaks make any improvements.
There is one i am thinking of starting trading with minimum stakes of £1 with a starting bank of £100( 1% stakes).
It is based off Martin's back over 1.5 system but i have reversed it by backing under 1.5 goals within a odds range of 3.05-4.45.
I have so far been paper trading for 3 months , based on if i was using £10 stakes , 196 trades, won 71, lost 125, s/rate 36.22% profit would have been £344.88 .
The others i will carry on paper trading until i find the edge -
@james-everard cheers mate will look forward to that!
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@Martin Thanks Martin , hopefully at the end of this month i can produce the results for the filter strategies i am testing and have some to potential start trading soon. Will update the end of the October.
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@james-everard this is really great to hear!
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Evening all been a while since i posted. Been paper trading since July on various strategies not done a trade since and feel so much better mentally.
Been recording various systems which is time consuming but not stressful . so far 2 1/2 months in and have a few that are looking promising.
Especially a back under 1.5 goals system and a back the draw at ko -
@Martin said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard that's a great post! I think one thing I try and tell myself a lot is 'There is no rush!'. Not just in trading but in life, there's actually rarely a good reason to rush things and often it leads to bad outcomes.
it was effecting me mentally especially when you have a terrible weekend. Feel so much better knowing i will only trade now if it has been tested for 3 months and profitable after this period. If it is £1 stakes and if it proves unprofitable again then your losses are minimal .
No rush at all i have been on here for 4 1/2 years making the same mistakes over and over again so a change in the process has to be done and never know this time next year i could be in a totally different place hopefully with my trading
