MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY
-
Thought it was time for me to follow in the footsteps of others and start my own personal trading blog to help me track where i am going right or wrong ,and hopefully have some feedback from you guys regards to any improvements i can make.
I have had some personally issues i have been dealing with over the last couple of months but feel in a much better place now. During this period it has allowed me to try to change my gambling habits and i feel much more controlled now. So now is the time for me to be try and be part again of this fantastic forum and bounce ideas off each other again.
I have been trading the last couple of weeks on greyhound racing ( i know not everyone's cup of tea) in the evening which so far on the strategy i am working on seems to be paying dividends for the last 2 weeks i have been doing the system.
I have also a few football strategies i am working on , the best i feel will be ltd , back over 1.5 goals at ht and the late goal strategies. These three football systems i believe with a few tweaks here and there will be good systems.
The way i trade now is i don't lay odds above 3.0 anything above effects my mindset . On the ltd i think i may need some advice please i was going in around the 60min mark when odds are below 2.38 and then split staking the lays on 70 and 85mins . What i am finding though especially yesterday that there are a lot of goal scored between 45-60mins . When people trade the ltd do they do 100% stake at half time irrespective of the odds and if so what is the max odds they go for or do you split stake ? It is great the system when you get a 88th min winner but will the matches that have goal between 45-60mins profits outweigh this ? -
@Richard-Latimer HI Richard, hope you are well mate?
No i hadn't been recording leagues, but a very good point to add my data analysis as like you say i can the eliminate leagues that aren't performing -
@james-everard have you found it necessary to hold back on certain leagues as yet?
No matter what I do there are always a small smatterng of dud leagues in any angle I'm looking at.
-
Afternoon Update for November. Back into a Green month again, based on liability stakes of £12.53
System 1 - Lay Home side at Kick off ( odds 5.0-7.0)
I was looking at around 4.5 odds upwards if h2h stats were in a favour of the away side especially matches for matches where the home side has won a max of 1/5.Trades 17
Won 15
Lost 2
S/rate 88.23%
Profit £17.94System 2 - Back under 1.5 goals Ft version D( 3-0-3.55 odds) check h2h
Trades 11
Won 4
Lost 7
s/rate 36.36%
Profit £19.08So the new bank is £1290.38 , new stakes £12.90 based on 1% of my bank.
I have continued paper trading several other systems and some look promising but want another couple of months of data. Although one system has met my criteria of 6 months of profit of profit each month ,so will be implementing this month.
They are a Back under 1.5 goals system( Version G) based on h2h system odds range 3.75-4.50
Tested so far 311 matches ( based on a £10 test)
Won 101
Lost 210
s/rate 32.47%
Profit to date based on the £10 stakes and a 2% commission would be £833.61I
-
@Martin HI Martin i started off last November again with a trading bank of £100 using 1% liability stakes so still have a healthy bank from then. Just hoping it was a one off terrible month on the injury time goal market as every other month has been profitable until then. I want to paper trade this system for November though just incase .
-
@james-everard how is it overall?
-
HI All update for October , to say it was a disaster was an understatement!
System 1 - Back under 1.5 goals version D
Trades 25
Won 8
Lost 17
S/rate 32%
Lost £12.44System 2 - Lay Home at k/o ( 5.0-7.0) odds
Trades 10
Won 7
Lost 3
S/rate 70%
Lost £21.64System 3 - Injury Time goal ( ent 90mins 1.24 odds or below)
Trades 34
Won 3
Lost 31
s/rate 8.82%
Lost £301.85New bank is now £1253.36 ,new stakes will be £12.53. I am going to paper trade again after such a heavy loss on the injury time goal. Carry on with the other two systems this month
-
@Arran-Shackell These odds you will only need just over 20% strike rate to break even, get to 25%-30% make good profits
-
Great idea laying at those odds.
-
@Arran-Shackell Yes mate enter on 90mins or when laying the next goals odds are down to 1.24 or below
-
I have checked my other paper trading strategies and i feel i am comfortable with enough data on one of them at this stage so will add another strategy to my filters from tomorrow.
It is a back under 1.5 goals filter (version D)
I have 600 trades of data since February , won 213,lost 387 ,s/rate of 35.5% profit based on £10 stakes is £724.90.
The others i will carry on paper trading so i have more data -
That injury time goal looks like a good one. Do you enter at 90 minutes?
-
Update for September
System 1 - Lay home at k/o 5-7.0 odds check h2h
Trades 5
won 5
lost 0
s/rate 100%
profit £17.16System 2 - Injury time goal version B( Based on last 5 matches)
Trades 24
won 6
lost 18
s/rate 25%
Profit £124.24New trading bank is £1589.29 , new 1% liability stakes £15.89.
I am possibly going to start to other systems this month , i will analyse the results this evening and post later on
-
@james-everard well done mate! Another great update.
-
Evening an update for August for the two systems i have been trading again another profitable month. The starting bank was £1104.39 using 1% liability stakes (£11.04)
LAY HOME AT KICKOFF (ODDS 5.0-7.0, CHECK H2H)
TRADES 14
WON 13
LOST 1
S/RATE 92.86%
PROFIT £ 22.42BACK INJURY TIME GOAL VERSION B( ENTER 90MINS ,BASED ON LAST 5 MATCHES)
TRADES 40
WON 13
LOST 27
S/RATE 32.50%
PROFIT £320.62The new bank for September is £1447.43 and new 1% liability stakes of £14.47
I have several other systems i have been paper trading over the last few months and quite a few are looking promising to potential enter to my trading profile.
I am going away to the USA next week for 10 days so i have decided to carry on paper trading these this month, and i just need to confirm the previous months analysis so will review again at the end of the month. Although i won't have data from the period i am away -
The issue is that as Akiva has said, there are fewer games, meaning variance has more of an effect. That can work both ways: a few years ago there was a period in the summer where everything I did paid off and I was convinced I was a trading god. It was just positive variance, as the subsequent autumn showed.
The fewer the games, the more your results will be skewed by variance, in both directions.
-
Most football traders make their money on the winter leagues. Summer leagues are fine, but there just isn't the volume of matches
-
@Alex-Rendell said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@Simon-Bates I personally have had an alright summer; slow but steady due to an obvious lack of matches being played (which may also have caused 'unusual' losses in some people's otherwise successful strategies - fewer results = higher risk of short-term variance). Just need to get the first two infuriatingly inconvenient international breaks out of the way and we'll be back into the swings of things around October/November time!
HI Alex what systems are you trading and finding ok in the Summer months please?
-
@Simon-Bates said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@Alex-Rendell I was down £20.29 in June from 119 games, up £15.25 in July from 116 games, down a fiver in 2 months, hopefully like you say it'll pick up in next few months with more and more winter leagues starting back up and more filter results.
8 games into the start of the new seasons should be around 2nd week October ish, then we can all get back to profiting again from our strategies.I too wait for 8 games minimum from the start of the system before i trade , learnt from others on here for that and it is the sensible thing to do. I am sure things will pick up soon enough
-
@Simon-Bates said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard it would be good to know if any other traders have had a poor June and July trading results wise.
I don't know how long you've been trading for James, so not sure if you can answer this, but did you have the same slump last year, June and July, and if you did, did it start picking up again when the winter leagues started back up?
Hi Simon , looking back at this blog i had a terrible June and July last year as well. Admittedly that was before but i wasn't trading correctly. I should have paper traded systems which i did from August to December . The injury time goal though as performed ever so well each month so that is my go to system for the time being
