MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY
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February update .
Now down to 3 strategies two set and forget versions of the lay the draw and one split stake 1.5 goal strategy. I reset my results spreadsheet from the 21st of this month and will just be recording these strategies from now on and any others i will paper trade to test the strategies.
The first strategy is the Stuart's ltd at kick off strategy, not been the best of times so far but i have missed some matches that were winners and like Stuart has mentioned over the long term this system is profitable just going through a bad patch
Results 20 trades , 12 winners , 8 losers strike rate of 60% and current loss of £8.09The second strategy is my split stake over 1.5 goal strategy. This can be frustrating system as only 4 matches i have traded with goals often going in before the 30min entry point. Although i think this will work out with patience if i miss matches.
Results 4 trades , 2 winners , 2 losing trades with a strike rate of 50% current running at a loss of £5.30The final strategy which is my own variation of a lay the draw at kickoff . This is performing very well so far. The filter i use to determine the trades are as follows
Overall Matches played 10 or greater
Home matches played 5 or greater
Away matches played 5 or greater
Overall drew - less/equal to 6
Home Team drew- less than equal to 5
Away team drew- Less than equal to 5
Overall drew percentage - less than/equal to 20%
Away drew percentage - less than/equal to 20%
Home Drew Percentage - less than/equal to 20%
Betfair draw odds - less than 5.0
I also check the h2h fulltime results between the two sides (last 5 matches) and max of 1 match has been a draw
Taken out all the lower liability leagues and leagues unlikely going in playResults for this strategy are total traded 28 matches, won 25, lost 3 , strike rate 89% profit so far £13.74
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@keith-anderson Oh bugger! We've all been there!
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@ryan-carruthers said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard I like the addition of being stricter and waiting for the things that actually lead to goals and waiting for them buddy
I wish I was stricter last night. Made a schoolboy error on the Coppa Italia match. Didn't realise it was a over two legs. Just assumed with COVID and no fans being permitted, that it would be a knock-out competition - like it has been so far this season!
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@james-everard I like the addition of being stricter and waiting for the things that actually lead to goals and waiting for them buddy
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Hi all .
Just an update on how i am progressing which i hope will help with my progression. I have now been recording my trading for the last month which is attached to my spreadsheet.
I was previously inundated with strategies and matches that i became overwhelmed especially at weekends.
I then decided to scrap my main strategy of laying the underdog if they take lead which in recent months was performing badly. i think a lot of this is to do with players mentalities playing in empty stadiums. i also stopped the backing of the favourite for the same reasons.I have now three strategies i am running with. the first being a back over 2.5 goal strategy which i am paper trading and two which i am using money on,
The late goal filter i have a poor strike rate but only £5 down so far since January due to a few injury time winners . I am going to revert back to a £4.00 liability per trade rather than the 3 split stakes i was previously doing and see if the losses turn into profit. I was entering on 80,86 and 90mins i am going to do 80 and 90 instead.I also started last week with min stakes( £2-00 liability) on a different version of Laying the draw at kick off as a set and forget strategy which is going ok at the moment with a high strike rate
Hopefully this month will be a continuation of my development and see if i can find any trends with the data i am recording. I am going to try to be much stricter this month on the late goal strategy and if i am not watching live coverage the inplay stats have to be good i am currently looking at matches on 80mins to have at least 10 shots on goal and 6 corners plus i think i need to even more stricter and say at least 10 shots on target and 10 corners plus and then i think i can reduce the losses. -
@keith-anderson I know mate it has been a painful learning experience which hopefully i am now behind.
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@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
I have learnt a lot recently and the best way for me to trade is to keeping it simple, removing some of the other strategies with certainly help .
From tomorrow i am going to start again recording my results and see how the split stake ltd works out (45mins, 60mins, 75mins and 85mins) , i may find that i may have to reevaluate these entry times but see how it goes.If only you listened the first time. This isn’t a criticism James, as I done exactly the same thing. I would’ve been a profitable trader sooner, if I heeded the advice. I suppose it all part of the learning curve.
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I have learnt a lot recently and the best way for me to trade is to keeping it simple, removing some of the other strategies with certainly help .
From tomorrow i am going to start again recording my results and see how the split stake ltd works out (45mins, 60mins, 75mins and 85mins) , i may find that i may have to reevaluate these entry times but see how it goes. -
@james-everard Sounds great to me, keeping it simple and removing distractions.
Yes might miss some but if you test it, then it might just catch some of them and it might not work but if it does it's really straight forward to do.
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@ryan-carruthers said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard Hey buddy,
Firstly great to see you on this thread, will follow with interest.
Hmm why not split the stake in 25% then enter 45 / 60 / 70 / 85
Would need testing mind but might be a solution? (Odds depending)
Hi mate i am going to give it a try and see how i get on with this variation of a split stake , if i can get matches with a late goal profit will be great , unfortunately if you get a goal 1st 5mins of the second half profit will be a low return but at least you can green out and move onto the next match.
To stop over trading now i have deleted the 0ver 1.5 goal half time split stake filter and will purely run on the ltd for the time being.
Also have a late goal split stake strategy and leave it with these two for the time being. All other filters have now been deleted along with the laying of the underdog system which has been poor this season. -
@james-everard Hey buddy,
Firstly great to see you on this thread, will follow with interest.
Hmm why not split the stake in 25% then enter 45 / 60 / 70 / 85
Would need testing mind but might be a solution? (Odds depending)
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@keith-anderson said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
Best of luck James!
When I LTD I don't lay above 3.0. When I LCS I don't lay above 4.5
Cheers Keith i know you are the master of ltd so your input would be great. so you do a full 100% stake of ltd at half time if odds below 3.0?
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Best of luck James!
When I LTD I don't lay above 3.0. When I LCS I don't lay above 4.5
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@chris-osborne said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
Hi James and good luck Weill be following with interest.
I have a similar query as you regarding the ht ltd, what I’m thinking about is because the next goals market is rubbish at ht and ltd odds are around 3, I’m looking at the next but one goals market eg no goals = 1,5 goals market either backing overs or laying unders all down to personal preference. If a goal comes within the first 20 minutes or so, would remove the liability and keep the trade open until the end of game that way you capture the early goals.
The issue comes though if no goal in.first 20/30 mins of the half either cashing out for a partial loss around 75 mins or letting it run knowing you may have to take the full loss.
Hi Chris , hope you are keeping well mate? Sounds similar to my dilemma. I have two systems regarding the half time , i have a bak over 1.5 goal filter that is set up for 0-0 at half time which i enter on 45mins and split stake upto 75mins and trade out a loss if still 0-0 then( green out if a goal is scored between 45-75mins) .
But the ltd filter (sometimes will pick up 0-0's as well as the filter has different paramaters) i find in the expected high scoring leagues or teams the ltd can be over 3.0. Perhaps i could do 50% stake at half time if odds are below 3.0 and then split stake the other other 1/2 of the stake on 60 and 80mins. I always let these matches run as inevitably if i was going to cash out at a loss there would be a goal in the last 10mins! -
Hi James and good luck Weill be following with interest.
I have a similar query as you regarding the ht ltd, what I’m thinking about is because the next goals market is rubbish at ht and ltd odds are around 3, I’m looking at the next but one goals market eg no goals = 1,5 goals market either backing overs or laying unders all down to personal preference. If a goal comes within the first 20 minutes or so, would remove the liability and keep the trade open until the end of game that way you capture the early goals.
The issue comes though if no goal in.first 20/30 mins of the half either cashing out for a partial loss around 75 mins or letting it run knowing you may have to take the full loss.
