MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY
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Great idea laying at those odds.
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@Arran-Shackell Yes mate enter on 90mins or when laying the next goals odds are down to 1.24 or below
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I have checked my other paper trading strategies and i feel i am comfortable with enough data on one of them at this stage so will add another strategy to my filters from tomorrow.
It is a back under 1.5 goals filter (version D)
I have 600 trades of data since February , won 213,lost 387 ,s/rate of 35.5% profit based on £10 stakes is £724.90.
The others i will carry on paper trading so i have more data -
That injury time goal looks like a good one. Do you enter at 90 minutes?
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Update for September
System 1 - Lay home at k/o 5-7.0 odds check h2h
Trades 5
won 5
lost 0
s/rate 100%
profit £17.16System 2 - Injury time goal version B( Based on last 5 matches)
Trades 24
won 6
lost 18
s/rate 25%
Profit £124.24New trading bank is £1589.29 , new 1% liability stakes £15.89.
I am possibly going to start to other systems this month , i will analyse the results this evening and post later on
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@james-everard well done mate! Another great update.
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Evening an update for August for the two systems i have been trading again another profitable month. The starting bank was £1104.39 using 1% liability stakes (£11.04)
LAY HOME AT KICKOFF (ODDS 5.0-7.0, CHECK H2H)
TRADES 14
WON 13
LOST 1
S/RATE 92.86%
PROFIT £ 22.42BACK INJURY TIME GOAL VERSION B( ENTER 90MINS ,BASED ON LAST 5 MATCHES)
TRADES 40
WON 13
LOST 27
S/RATE 32.50%
PROFIT £320.62The new bank for September is £1447.43 and new 1% liability stakes of £14.47
I have several other systems i have been paper trading over the last few months and quite a few are looking promising to potential enter to my trading profile.
I am going away to the USA next week for 10 days so i have decided to carry on paper trading these this month, and i just need to confirm the previous months analysis so will review again at the end of the month. Although i won't have data from the period i am away -
The issue is that as Akiva has said, there are fewer games, meaning variance has more of an effect. That can work both ways: a few years ago there was a period in the summer where everything I did paid off and I was convinced I was a trading god. It was just positive variance, as the subsequent autumn showed.
The fewer the games, the more your results will be skewed by variance, in both directions.
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Most football traders make their money on the winter leagues. Summer leagues are fine, but there just isn't the volume of matches
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@Alex-Rendell said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@Simon-Bates I personally have had an alright summer; slow but steady due to an obvious lack of matches being played (which may also have caused 'unusual' losses in some people's otherwise successful strategies - fewer results = higher risk of short-term variance). Just need to get the first two infuriatingly inconvenient international breaks out of the way and we'll be back into the swings of things around October/November time!
HI Alex what systems are you trading and finding ok in the Summer months please?
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@Simon-Bates said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@Alex-Rendell I was down £20.29 in June from 119 games, up £15.25 in July from 116 games, down a fiver in 2 months, hopefully like you say it'll pick up in next few months with more and more winter leagues starting back up and more filter results.
8 games into the start of the new seasons should be around 2nd week October ish, then we can all get back to profiting again from our strategies.I too wait for 8 games minimum from the start of the system before i trade , learnt from others on here for that and it is the sensible thing to do. I am sure things will pick up soon enough
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@Simon-Bates said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard it would be good to know if any other traders have had a poor June and July trading results wise.
I don't know how long you've been trading for James, so not sure if you can answer this, but did you have the same slump last year, June and July, and if you did, did it start picking up again when the winter leagues started back up?
Hi Simon , looking back at this blog i had a terrible June and July last year as well. Admittedly that was before but i wasn't trading correctly. I should have paper traded systems which i did from August to December . The injury time goal though as performed ever so well each month so that is my go to system for the time being
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@Alex-Rendell I was down £20.29 in June from 119 games, up £15.25 in July from 116 games, down a fiver in 2 months, hopefully like you say it'll pick up in next few months with more and more winter leagues starting back up and more filter results.
8 games into the start of the new seasons should be around 2nd week October ish, then we can all get back to profiting again from our strategies. -
@Simon-Bates I personally have had an alright summer; slow but steady due to an obvious lack of matches being played (which may also have caused 'unusual' losses in some people's otherwise successful strategies - fewer results = higher risk of short-term variance). Just need to get the first two infuriatingly inconvenient international breaks out of the way and we'll be back into the swings of things around October/November time!
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@james-everard it would be good to know if any other traders have had a poor June and July trading results wise.
I don't know how long you've been trading for James, so not sure if you can answer this, but did you have the same slump last year, June and July, and if you did, did it start picking up again when the winter leagues started back up?
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Update for July and it hasn't been a great month , i did notice a downturn on some of the strategies the last week of June and it has continued for July so perhaps the summer leagues on some of the systems aren't worth trading . Results below based on £10.42 stakes (1% liability stakes) bank at start of July was £1042.42.
System 1- Back under 1.5 goals ft version D( 3.0-3.55 odds ) check h2h
Trades 24
won 7
lost 17
s/rate 29.17%
Lost £15.97System 2 - Back the Draw at K/O Version z ( 3.0+)
Trades 28
won 5
lost 23
s/rate 17.86%
Lost £100.82System 3- Lay home at k/o ( odds range 5.0-7.0) check h2h
Trades 11
won 9
lost 2
s/rate 81.82%
profit £1.68System 4- Back under 2.5 goals FT ( odds range 1.70-2.30) check h2h
Trades 18
won 8
lost 10
s/rate 44.44%
Lost £32.92System 5- Injury Time goal version b
Trades 31
won 10
lost 21
s/rate 32.25%
Profit £210.00Still managed to make £61.97 profit and my new trading bank is £1104.39, new stakes for August will be £11.04( 1% of bank)
I am going to paper trade the 2.5 goal market, back the draw and back under 1.5 goals for August and see if there is an upturn. So for August just back the injury time goal and lay the home side for next month
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Thanks for your support Matt and Stuart. I should have listened to advice ages ago and wasted lots of money and time.
Advice again for any newbies , paper trade , paper trade and paper trade until you find a system /systems that are profitable. I did this for 3-4 months then started off with a £100 bank bank in December using 1% stakes just £1 liability and built it up from there. Listen to advice from others and not just do your own thing like i was ! -
@james-everard
This is great stuff James.I remember speaking to you not long after I joined here and you seemed quite down on yourself. Just take a look at what you have achieved here, its really coming together for you now.
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That's superb!
Made up for you. You've worked so hard at this and it is coming together beautifully.
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Evening an update for June results from the 6 strategies i have been trading. Based on £9.45 stakes 1% of bank ( starting bank at beginning of June £946.69)
System 1 - Lay home at k/o odds 5.0-7.0 check h2h
Trades 6 , won 5, lost 1 , s/rate 83.33% Lost £0.98pSystem 2 - Back Draw at K/o version B - Odds 3.50+
Trades 10
won 2
lost 8
s/rate 20%
lost £38.68System 3 - Back under 1.5 goals at K/o version D ( 3.0-3.55 odds)
Trades 35
won 13
lost 22
s/rate 37.14%
Profit £39.82System 4- Back under 2.5 goals at k/o (odds 1.70-2.30) check h2h
Trades 25
won 14
lost 11
s/rate 56%
Profit £16.01System 5- Back the Draw at k/o Version Z (check elo max 100 diff, odds 3.0+)
Trades 31
won 11
lost 20
s/rate 35.48%
Profit £42.82System 6- Injury Time goal version B
Trades 17
won 4
lost 13
s/rate 23.53%
Profit £36.74Total profit overall for the month was £95.73 , new bank now hits the magic 1k mark ( £1042.42) new liability stakes will now be £10.42.
For July i am going to hold off the Back the draw at k/o version B, it has made a loss and i don't think i need to be trading two versions of backing the draw
