MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY
-
@Martin Hopefully now i am entering into my portfolio of strategies the profit will continue i will update at the end of February
-
@james-everard really interested to see how those new systems get on, four months of profit is pretty solid.
-
Update for January, not a great month slightly down overall ,but hopefully just one of those occasionally poor months and back on track for February
System 1- Back Under 1.5 goals FT Version D ( 3-0-3.55 ODDS)
Trades 9
Won 2
Lost 7
S/rate 22.22%
Lost £33.56System 2 - Back over 1.5 First Half Goals odds 2.42+
Trades 20
Won 7
Lost 13
S/rate 35%
Lost £35.99System 3 - Lay Home at k/0 5.0-7.0 odds range at k/o
Trades 26
Won 22
Lost 4
s/rate 84.61%
Profit £20.46System 5- Back Over 1.5 goals Ft Version G ( 3.75-4.50 odds range)
Trades 19
Won 5
Lost 14
S/rate 26.31%
Profit £11.59So the new bank for February has been reduced down to £1359.63, new 1% liability stakes will be £13.60.
I have been paper trading further systems for a while now, i have 4 months of consecutive profits on a Back the Draw at k/o strategy based on h2h results, Elo difference and league positions with a odds range of 3.80-4.50, i had tightened the filter to this odds range the last two months and based on £10 stakes i would be up £252.06 so i will be implementing this strategy to my portfolio this month.
Another one is laying under 2.5 second half goals at half time, looking for odds 1.30 or below, paper trading since last March and only would have been down on three of those months so i will also be implementing this system, and again based on £10 stakes i would be up £633.16.
And finally the 3 extra system is back under 2.5 goals at Kick off odds range 2.0-2.30 , checking h2h also based on 4 months of testing i would be up £267.99 which i shall be adding also -
Happy new year all, hopefully a profitable 2025 for everyone coming up.
2024 comes to a end a fortunately up again for December results are as follows for December. Based on £12.90 liability stakesSystem 1 - Lay home at K/0 5.0-7.0 ( Check h2h)
Trades 28
won 25
lost 3
s/rate 89.28%
Profit £35.35System 2
Back under 1.5 goals at k/0( h2h based data) 3.75-4.50 odds
Trades 50
Won 12
lost 38
S/rate 24%
Lost £19.00System 3
Back under 1.5 goals Ft version D ( 3..0-3.55 odds) Check h2h
Trades 20
Won 8
Lost 12
S/rate 40%
Profit £90.40So my new bank for January is £1,397.13 , new liability stake at 1% of the bank will be £13.97
I have continued testing various other systems , my injury time goal system that i had previously traded but put on hold in November due a large hit in October , made a profit in November but a very small loss in December.
One of the back the draw systems i have tested for the last two months is looking very promising but i need more data before i potential put into place.
Another system i am adding to my portfolio this month will be Backing over 1.5 First Half Goals odds min 2.42 checking h2h results also.
I have tested since April with a total of 114 results, 54 wins ,lost 60, profit would be £234.63 based on £10 test stakes and the 2% commission -
@Richard-Latimer HI Richard, hope you are well mate?
No i hadn't been recording leagues, but a very good point to add my data analysis as like you say i can the eliminate leagues that aren't performing -
@james-everard have you found it necessary to hold back on certain leagues as yet?
No matter what I do there are always a small smatterng of dud leagues in any angle I'm looking at.
-
Afternoon Update for November. Back into a Green month again, based on liability stakes of £12.53
System 1 - Lay Home side at Kick off ( odds 5.0-7.0)
I was looking at around 4.5 odds upwards if h2h stats were in a favour of the away side especially matches for matches where the home side has won a max of 1/5.Trades 17
Won 15
Lost 2
S/rate 88.23%
Profit £17.94System 2 - Back under 1.5 goals Ft version D( 3-0-3.55 odds) check h2h
Trades 11
Won 4
Lost 7
s/rate 36.36%
Profit £19.08So the new bank is £1290.38 , new stakes £12.90 based on 1% of my bank.
I have continued paper trading several other systems and some look promising but want another couple of months of data. Although one system has met my criteria of 6 months of profit of profit each month ,so will be implementing this month.
They are a Back under 1.5 goals system( Version G) based on h2h system odds range 3.75-4.50
Tested so far 311 matches ( based on a £10 test)
Won 101
Lost 210
s/rate 32.47%
Profit to date based on the £10 stakes and a 2% commission would be £833.61I
-
@Martin HI Martin i started off last November again with a trading bank of £100 using 1% liability stakes so still have a healthy bank from then. Just hoping it was a one off terrible month on the injury time goal market as every other month has been profitable until then. I want to paper trade this system for November though just incase .
-
@james-everard how is it overall?
-
HI All update for October , to say it was a disaster was an understatement!
System 1 - Back under 1.5 goals version D
Trades 25
Won 8
Lost 17
S/rate 32%
Lost £12.44System 2 - Lay Home at k/o ( 5.0-7.0) odds
Trades 10
Won 7
Lost 3
S/rate 70%
Lost £21.64System 3 - Injury Time goal ( ent 90mins 1.24 odds or below)
Trades 34
Won 3
Lost 31
s/rate 8.82%
Lost £301.85New bank is now £1253.36 ,new stakes will be £12.53. I am going to paper trade again after such a heavy loss on the injury time goal. Carry on with the other two systems this month
-
@Arran-Shackell These odds you will only need just over 20% strike rate to break even, get to 25%-30% make good profits
-
Great idea laying at those odds.
-
@Arran-Shackell Yes mate enter on 90mins or when laying the next goals odds are down to 1.24 or below
-
I have checked my other paper trading strategies and i feel i am comfortable with enough data on one of them at this stage so will add another strategy to my filters from tomorrow.
It is a back under 1.5 goals filter (version D)
I have 600 trades of data since February , won 213,lost 387 ,s/rate of 35.5% profit based on £10 stakes is £724.90.
The others i will carry on paper trading so i have more data -
That injury time goal looks like a good one. Do you enter at 90 minutes?
-
Update for September
System 1 - Lay home at k/o 5-7.0 odds check h2h
Trades 5
won 5
lost 0
s/rate 100%
profit £17.16System 2 - Injury time goal version B( Based on last 5 matches)
Trades 24
won 6
lost 18
s/rate 25%
Profit £124.24New trading bank is £1589.29 , new 1% liability stakes £15.89.
I am possibly going to start to other systems this month , i will analyse the results this evening and post later on
-
@james-everard well done mate! Another great update.
-
Evening an update for August for the two systems i have been trading again another profitable month. The starting bank was £1104.39 using 1% liability stakes (£11.04)
LAY HOME AT KICKOFF (ODDS 5.0-7.0, CHECK H2H)
TRADES 14
WON 13
LOST 1
S/RATE 92.86%
PROFIT £ 22.42BACK INJURY TIME GOAL VERSION B( ENTER 90MINS ,BASED ON LAST 5 MATCHES)
TRADES 40
WON 13
LOST 27
S/RATE 32.50%
PROFIT £320.62The new bank for September is £1447.43 and new 1% liability stakes of £14.47
I have several other systems i have been paper trading over the last few months and quite a few are looking promising to potential enter to my trading profile.
I am going away to the USA next week for 10 days so i have decided to carry on paper trading these this month, and i just need to confirm the previous months analysis so will review again at the end of the month. Although i won't have data from the period i am away -
The issue is that as Akiva has said, there are fewer games, meaning variance has more of an effect. That can work both ways: a few years ago there was a period in the summer where everything I did paid off and I was convinced I was a trading god. It was just positive variance, as the subsequent autumn showed.
The fewer the games, the more your results will be skewed by variance, in both directions.
-
Most football traders make their money on the winter leagues. Summer leagues are fine, but there just isn't the volume of matches
