MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY
-
HI All , thought i would do an update on my football systems and i will update July's results in a few days time. Here are my results from June ( albeit a little late)
System 1-LCS on 60mins if no 2nd half goal -
Trades 19
Won 15
Lost 4
s/rate 78.95%
Profit £33.50System 2 -Laying the Underdog
Trades 5
Won 1
Lost 4
s/r 20%
Lost of -£16.77System 3
Lay unders for h1 goal
Trades 12
Won 3
Lost 9
s/rate 36.36%
Lost -£34.58System 3 Back over 1.56 goals odds 1.56
Trades 47
Won 28
Lost 19
S/Rate 59.57%
Lost -£28.58System 4 - Injury Time goal
Trades 5
Won 1
Lost 4
s/rate 20%
Profit £88.21System 5- H2 Goal lcs on 60mins
Trades 19
Won 15
Lost 4
s/rate 78.95%
Profit £33.50Profit for June across all the strategies is £41.78 , and the new bank for the start of June was £436.78 and new stakes for the month of £8.75.
I reviewed my strategies further and have added a 2.5 goal set and forget and amended the 1.5 system to also be a set and forget at 2.28 odds.
The injury time system i have also changed to a split stake late goal system going in on 81,85,88 and 90+1 mins .
The first half goal market i have also amended ,i am also doing split staking on 31,35,40 and 44 mins
Will update the results for July in a few days time but looking at my bank now i have a made healthy profit this month and finally feel i am getting the rewards looking much more at the odds rather than strike rate.
For instance the 2.5 system working on a 50% strike rate i would still be in profit -
Potentials for today
Back half 2 goal odds 1.56
12noon-!sweden div 1 norra-Stockholm internationals vs motala
19.30 Argentina Prem b- Canvelas vs Vila San Carlos
20.00 USA mls- Charlotte vs New York red bulls
Back over 1.5 goals odds 1.56
13.00 Sweden div2 norrland- skellerftea vs gottneif
13.00 Sweden div 2 norrland- Bodens vs Ostersund ifk
15.00 Sweden div2 svealand- hudiksvalls vs ifk stock subs
19.30 Argentina Prem b- Cominicaciones vs Uai Urquiza
-
@chris-osborne said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
Nothing for weds either!
Dont think there's going to be much until next weekend when Internationals are done
A few are on my filters for the weekend but some leagues aren’t on betfair so will be very few if any. A couple of months ago I would be desperate to find a trade now it doesn’t bother me if no trades to do I look at in a different light.
How’s your trading been ?
-
@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
Nothing for weds either!
Dont think there's going to be much until next weekend when Internationals are done
-
Nothing for weds either!
-
Nothing for Tuesday either
-
No trades for today
-
@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
Today list
2nd half goal back next overs odds 1.56
14.30 Sweden div1 Norra- Umea vs Sylvia (won £4.34 goal 90min)
18.00 Peru prem- Sporting Crystal vs Sport Boys ( no trade didn’t get matched goal 60th)
———————————————————————————
Back over1.5 goals odds 1.56 set and forget14.00 Sweden div1 norra- Umea vs Sylvia( no trade goals too early to get matched at odds req)
15.00 Sweden div 2- Ragsveds vs Jarfalla
(won £4.41 goals 55,60th)
17.00 Argentina Prem C- Atlas vs San Martin Burzaco ( won £8.83 ent ht 1-1 ft)19.00 Peru prem- Sporting Crystal vs Sport Boys
missed trade would won————————————————————————————BTTS odds 2.28 set and forget
17.00 Argentina Prem C- Atlas vs San Martin Burzaco
(won £24.00. Ent 49mins 1-1 ft goals 47,58mins)
LAY AWAY SIDE IF TAKES LEAD
23.00 Argentina Prem C- Excursionistas vs El Porvenir ( no trade 0-0 ft)
Promising day Sunday see above the results
-
Today list
2nd half goal back next overs odds 1.56
14.30 Sweden div1 Norra- Umea vs Sylvia
18.00 Peru prem- Sporting Crystal vs Sport Boys
———————————————————————————
Back over1.5 goals odds 1.56 set and forget14.00 Sweden div1 norra- Umea vs Sylvia
15.00 Sweden div 2- Ragsveds vs Jarfalla
17.00 Argentina Prem C- Atlas vs San Martin Burzaco
19.00 Peru prem- Sporting Crystal vs Sport Boys
————————————————————————————BTTS odds 2.28 set and forget
17.00 Argentina Prem C- Atlas vs San Martin Burzaco
LAY AWAY SIDE IF TAKES LEAD
23.00 Argentina Prem C- Excursionistas vs El Porvenir
-
@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
Two potentials from my filters today
Back half 2 goal (next goal scoring market at half time put in back bet of 1.56odds and wait to be matched)
23.00pm Paraguay prem- Cerritos Porteno vs Resistencia
Lay underdog if takes lead
20.00 Chile prem- Cobreloa vs Club Deportes
(Lay away side)No trades yesterday the favourite won and they other match was postponed
Watchlist for today
Back half 2 goal odds 1.56
22.15 Venezuelan prem- mineros vs Herman’s colmenares (WON £4.33 goal 70th)Back ov 1.5 goals odds 1.56 set and forget
18.30 Sweden div 2- kvarnsvedens vs sandvikens (LOST £7.90 FT 0-0)
23.15. Uruguay prem- catorque vs river plate
( LOST £7.90 FT 0-0)
BTTS odds 2.28 set and forget
23.15 Uruguay prem- catotque vs river plateLay home side if takes lead
22.15 Venezuelan -
@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
Two potentials from my filters today
Back half 2 goal (next goal scoring market at half time put in back bet of 1.56odds and wait to be matched)
23.00pm Paraguay prem- Cerritos Porteno vs Resistencia
Lay underdog if takes lead
20.00 Chile prem- Cobreloa vs Club Deportes
(Lay away side)No trades yesterday the favourite won and they other match was postponed
Watchlist for today
Back half 2 goal odds 1.56
22.15 Venezuelan prem- mineros vs Herman’s colmenaresBack ov 1.5 goals odds 1.56 set and forget
18.30 Sweden div 2- kvarnsvedens vs sandvikens
23.15. Uruguay prem- catorque vs river plateBTTS odds 2.28 set and forget
23.15 Uruguay prem- catotque vs river plateLay home side if takes lead
22.15 Venezuelan prem- mineros cs hermans colmenares -
Two potentials from my filters today
Back half 2 goal (next goal scoring market at half time put in back bet of 1.56odds and wait to be matched)
23.00pm Paraguay prem- Cerritos Porteno vs Resistencia
Lay underdog if takes lead
20.00 Chile prem- Cobreloa vs Club Deportes
(Lay away side) -
Been recording my results for may which was a long process with all records on paper and doing it the old fashioned way using a calculator, think I need to get looking for a lap top sooner rather than later.
My bank at the start of May was £254.02 and using 2% stakes equated to £5.08 stakes. Like I mentioned I thought I had a good month and so it came to be.results below for 5 strategies that I have traded for may.BTTS odds 2.08 . This is a set and forget strategy after a ok month in April hasn’t produced , think though the summer leagues should perform better and I am going to change the entry odds to 2.28 and see how the system gets on in June
Trades 48, won 22, lost 26, s/r 46% loss -(£4.40)
Lay the underdog - this has continued to perform month on month for me, not many trades this month due to the conclusion of the winter leagues and the summer South America leagues generally not enough matches meet the criteria of come backs but hopefully the Scandinavian leagues will be fruitful
Trades 8, won 4, lost 4 s/r 50% profit £32.53
Back over 1.5 goal set and forget odds 1.56. This performed well, if an early goal keep the trade going hoping to matched later on
Trades 39, won 28, lost 11, s/r 71.79% profit £30.27
Back 2nd half goal odds 1.56 on the next overs market. Put a back bet at odds of 1.56 and wait to be matched , usually this is between about 53-68mins.
Trades 11, won 10, lost 1 ,s/r 90.91% profit £23.16
Lcs 0-0 for ht or back over 0.5 fh goals another great profitable system, if I can get a match ideally Lcs 0-0 for the half time score if a goal comes in I put another lay on the current score at odds of 1.05 and you will be surprised how often they can get matched around the 40th min mark and had 3 matches that had a further goal and built up the profit nicely
Trades 17, won 14, lost 3, s/r 84% profit £59.53
Profit overall for may was £141.09 and add that to the bank it now gives me a trading bank for June of £395.11 and the new stakes will be £7.90
-
@james-everard this is great news to wake up to!
-
@james-everard Great news James, looking forward to the update on the shiny new laptop
Its amazing how relaxed things become when you get a handle on the discipline side of things. -
for May I have continued with the same discipline as last month and feel I have got to grips with my mentality now, I feel a lot more relaxed in my trading.
My laptop packed up early in the month so not managed to update results on my spreadsheet, will be buying a new one in the next couple of weeks.
I have been recording my results though and will go through them tomorrow/thurs but looking at my account, looks like it has been my best month so far and an increase in my stakes is now due.
Will update on this blog in a couple of days once I have the data analysed , no matches Tom which is good -
@james-everard fantastic news well done! Keep up the good work
-
Hi all , hope you are all keeping well. I have been working really hard on my discipline the last couple of months and think i have finally got there. I have managed to get rid of my demons of greyhound and horse racing trading which for me are sports that are not good to trade.
I have been trading football only , and scrapped the ltd strategies which were not offering the reward to risk ratio.
I wont bother with the run down of all my trades over the last few months but i have a bank now of £254.02 and using 2% stakes £5.08 liabilty per trade.
The three systems i am trading now are Laying the underdog , which i have been trading for a few months and made profits each month so far ( £160.45)
Secondly laying the 1st half correct score (0-0) when odds below 3.0 or backing over 0.5 first half goals when odds hit 1.56
The Third system is BTTS when odds hit 2.06 , if a early goal before it matches no trade, so need a 50% strike rate to be profitable.
I have learnt from last season as well by not trading matches at the end of the season if teams have nothing to play for. I feel in a much better position mentally now and hopefully the next few months will start to show the bank increase .
Look forward to start posting more regularly again glad to be back posting again -
If it was a busy saturday with quality leagues would any of todays trades be traded
-
@james-everard I have to say im slightly concerned by that post and by the reply you gave. These leagues you are trading will never last long term. You are building quality data (every game adds up long term) on leagues that you wont be able to trade even with a semi decent bank. Qatar, Iran and almost Hashtag United level of football in England. This is absolutley not gonna work long term and youd be better narrowing in on the leagues you can. I often get worried when people show me strategies that typically dont get a lot of selections from the major leagues. You have to ask yourself why it wouldnt work as well with them or why you get so few games. Just like the message i sent about not ditching leagues too soon, like what you were going to do. You want to get as much data on a league as possible. In the early days its gonna take ages to build that up. During that time hopefully your bank is rising enough with data being built up in long term sustainable leagues, so that when your bank is of good size nothing needs to change and youll only ever be improving the strat within those leagues. You go down this route and youll almost be trading this strat until you cant anymore, which is the opposite of what you want.
The reply is the thing im worried about more. If i dont trade these leagues ill not have anything to trade and ill just give up! This mindset worries me. This is something i used to say in my gambling past. The need to always be trading/betting. I said in a recent post the need for constant self gratification is an addictive trait. Its something iv had to work on because of my past. I certainly dont ever want to see someone go through what i went through. This mindset needs work on it more than the strategies you like. There is no need to be trading every day, there is certainly no need for you to give up or lose interest if you have none. Look at the forum, Ryan and me both long term traders, both with no trades today. Its because there isnt as good an amount of opportunities today and thats fine. Your just forcing it to feel active.
The best advice i can give is imagine you needed to explain every trade to your family. Just like say a hedge fund would. If every trade you placed youd have to expalin where your families money is going would you really tell them its gone on these leagues and that if you dont have a trade active every day then there is no point to this because youll lose interest. Youd probably be looking for a new hedge fund manager. I do this for everyone one of my trades, iv a sticky note i used to put on screen to remind me of why this was a good trade and if i could answer the bullet points i entered. If you wouldnt advise this to a family member or let someone else you care about use their money with this then dont trade it. Build the mindset first for long term success. You have grafted in terms of paper trading make it count mate. You built discipline by paper trading dont let it slip when your close. Dont do what some do and pause leagues when they are red or keep them ony if they have won x amount within small data. Always think big picture. Im rooting for you mate, so hopefully this post is soaked in. But if it feels like a dig and you dont want further help then let me know and ill button it, i just dont like what the post said in terms of getting worried about your mindset for the long term.
