MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY
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Goal based strategies in the Summer Leagues have been a gold mine this year (Superettan and Finnish Veikkausliiga have been amazing). They are quite likely swinging back to their average now. A league doesn't go all season with 3 goals plus per game.
So, to summarise: you have found a couple of good strategies that have stood the test of a few months, you are still in profit. Happy days, I would say, James. -
@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@stuart-capstick Hi Stuart its all the good profitable strategies from the last 2-3 months , made a killing on the over 1.5 and 2.5 last month now making a loss . I scrapped the lcs on 60mins at the end of last month as a lot of games for little reward ,and i thought i would be onto a winner with the other 4 systems.
It gets very frustrating when i have been doing this for 4 years, and i then i have finally got there then to be knocked down again it really destroys your mentality and mindset! Two trades again today two losses so from £150 odd quid profit for the month two days ago now £11 profit!
Just hope it turns back in my favour in the next few days and come the end of the month i will be back into decent profit but these losses have you doubting everything again just when i thought i had turned the corner!I know what you mean. Do you mind sharing the parameters of your filter in order that I may see if anything jumps out the way it has on mine?
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@stuart-capstick Hi Stuart its all the good profitable strategies from the last 2-3 months , made a killing on the over 1.5 and 2.5 last month now making a loss . I scrapped the lcs on 60mins at the end of last month as a lot of games for little reward ,and i thought i would be onto a winner with the other 4 systems.
It gets very frustrating when i have been doing this for 4 years, and i then i have finally got there then to be knocked down again it really destroys your mentality and mindset! Two trades again today two losses so from £150 odd quid profit for the month two days ago now £11 profit!
Just hope it turns back in my favour in the next few days and come the end of the month i will be back into decent profit but these losses have you doubting everything again just when i thought i had turned the corner! -
@chris-osborne said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
I’ve been struggling a bit as well so not on your own. Hopefully things will improve with winter leagues now starting back up.
My suggestion would be twofold, reduce stakes but also focus on one or two strategies
If there's one thing I have learnt it's perfect one thing before moving on to the next. I'm currently tracking a lay over 3.5 but until I've perfected the lay under 1.5 tracking is all it will be.
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I’ve been struggling a bit as well so not on your own. Hopefully things will improve with winter leagues now starting back up.
My suggestion would be twofold, reduce stakes but also focus on one or two strategies
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Hi James,
I'm sorry to hear that you've had a crap time recently.
I was flying from April and over the past 4 days, I have lost about 20% of the profit I had made. Looking at the data, this isn't abnormal. Up to this weekend, I had had positive variance (clusters of wins). Eventually, there was bound to be a reversion to the mean.
If a strategy has 80% SR, you will lose 20% of the time. That is not variance; that is your system. Variance refers to clusters of positive/negative results that are larger than expected.
You need to work out the SR for your strategies. It may be that they are still fine (average wins match SR).
Is it one strategy that has had a downturn or several? I think you may want to look at your staking. Ideally, split up the bank into however many strategies you have (i.e. 5 strategies, bank of £1,000, means 1 point is £2). This may seem slow and laborious, but it will protect your bank and help avoid the negative feelings when you have a shite run of results.
Whatever, you are still in profit. Don't do anything silly.
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@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
Well i had a feeling in the back of my head that things were going to well , and i did complanate keeping at the same stake level as last month but in the urge inside me told me i have made it here and but oh no typically not.
I started the first week of the month in similar vain over £150 up on the bank then bang every trade since has lost and i have lost £120 in a day and half.
Now my confidence has shot to bits and starting to think is this really worth while , i am giving it until the end of the month to see if things level out but if i have made a heavy loss come the end of August the end of trading for me.I know it's a bit crap only posting after a loss and it's the one thing someone else did really used to annoy me. Wondering if you have given consideration to the odds you take though and the longest expected losing streak based on those odds and likely probability?
For example 35% s/r has a longest expected losing streaking of 21 in 1000 bets. Meaning you can't be as aggressive in staking.
The advice I read was that you need to allow for longest expected losing streak x5 to protect your bank.
Obviously not all your systems are low odds. For that reason I would be looking at variable staking or definitely lays as opposed to backing so that the highest probability trades are the ones with the highest liability.
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Well i had a feeling in the back of my head that things were going to well , and i did complanate keeping at the same stake level as last month but in the urge inside me told me i have made it here and but oh no typically not.
I started the first week of the month in similar vain over £150 up on the bank then bang every trade since has lost and i have lost £120 in a day and half.
Now my confidence has shot to bits and starting to think is this really worth while , i am giving it until the end of the month to see if things level out but if i have made a heavy loss come the end of August the end of trading for me. -
@richard-latimer Cheers mate think i will hold off the lcs on 60mins and work on a better system and leave the other 4 systems going
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Glad it's working anyway mate!
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@richard-latimer said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
High all as promised my July results which proved my best month to date. It has taken me ages to manually add the results that i had but managed to devote a few hours last night and an hour this evening to calculate the results.
My starting bank for July was £436.78 and with stakes of 2% of this meaning my stakes were £8.75 liability.System 1 - Laying the underdog
Trades 14
Won 5
Lost 9
strike rate 35.71%
Loss of -£15.61
Points loss -3.09System 2- lCS ON 60mins (odds below 3.45) if no goal in second half
Trades 86
Won 58
Lost 27
strike rate 68.60%
Profit £16.09
Points profit 1.84System 3- Back late goal split stake last 10 mins
Trades 24
Won 8
Lost 16
Strike/rate 33.33%
Profit £13.29
Points Profit 1.52System 3- Back over 1.5 goals set and forget odds 2.28
Trades 21
Won 13
Lost 8
Strike rate 61.90%
Profit £76.14
Profit 8.70System 4- Lcs for ht on 30 mins split stake
Trades 35
Won 13
Lost 22
Strike rate 37.14%
Profit £4.78
Points profit 0.54System 5- Back over 2.5 goals set and forget odds 2.28
Trades 52
Won 31
Lost 21
Strike rate 59.62%
Profit £157.32
Points profit 17.98My new trading bank for August is £689.09 and my new stakes starting tomorrow will be £13.78.
Excellent work. I presume the lower profit systems normally produce much better otherwise I would stick to the overs haha!
Hi Mate yes the lcs on 60mins last month made £33.50 in june , only 19 matches and a strike rate of 78.95%. But a lot more trades and half the profit this month. I was noticing a lot of my matches on my filter had goals earlier between 45-60mins which meant no trade , so with my filter of needing a second half goal with goals going in these time periods meaning the chance of no second half goal in the other matches increases so something i think i will have to look at adapting. Either going in at half time or a couple of mins after but odds could be over 4 on some matches , or i could adapt the filter so i go in at 70mins with lower odds something to think over.
The laying of the underdog wasn;'t great but saying that today i had a nice win on a Argentinian league match , also thinking of split staking this strategy so not putting all my eggs in the basket on laying the underdog, for two reasons incase they underdog gets a second goal or the hope of a late equaliser -
@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
High all as promised my July results which proved my best month to date. It has taken me ages to manually add the results that i had but managed to devote a few hours last night and an hour this evening to calculate the results.
My starting bank for July was £436.78 and with stakes of 2% of this meaning my stakes were £8.75 liability.System 1 - Laying the underdog
Trades 14
Won 5
Lost 9
strike rate 35.71%
Loss of -£15.61
Points loss -3.09System 2- lCS ON 60mins (odds below 3.45) if no goal in second half
Trades 86
Won 58
Lost 27
strike rate 68.60%
Profit £16.09
Points profit 1.84System 3- Back late goal split stake last 10 mins
Trades 24
Won 8
Lost 16
Strike/rate 33.33%
Profit £13.29
Points Profit 1.52System 3- Back over 1.5 goals set and forget odds 2.28
Trades 21
Won 13
Lost 8
Strike rate 61.90%
Profit £76.14
Profit 8.70System 4- Lcs for ht on 30 mins split stake
Trades 35
Won 13
Lost 22
Strike rate 37.14%
Profit £4.78
Points profit 0.54System 5- Back over 2.5 goals set and forget odds 2.28
Trades 52
Won 31
Lost 21
Strike rate 59.62%
Profit £157.32
Points profit 17.98My new trading bank for August is £689.09 and my new stakes starting tomorrow will be £13.78.
Excellent work. I presume the lower profit systems normally produce much better otherwise I would stick to the overs haha!
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High all as promised my July results which proved my best month to date. It has taken me ages to manually add the results that i had but managed to devote a few hours last night and an hour this evening to calculate the results.
My starting bank for July was £436.78 and with stakes of 2% of this meaning my stakes were £8.75 liability.System 1 - Laying the underdog
Trades 14
Won 5
Lost 9
strike rate 35.71%
Loss of -£15.61
Points loss -3.09System 2- lCS ON 60mins (odds below 3.45) if no goal in second half
Trades 86
Won 58
Lost 27
strike rate 68.60%
Profit £16.09
Points profit 1.84System 3- Back late goal split stake last 10 mins
Trades 24
Won 8
Lost 16
Strike/rate 33.33%
Profit £13.29
Points Profit 1.52System 3- Back over 1.5 goals set and forget odds 2.28
Trades 21
Won 13
Lost 8
Strike rate 61.90%
Profit £76.14
Profit 8.70System 4- Lcs for ht on 30 mins split stake
Trades 35
Won 13
Lost 22
Strike rate 37.14%
Profit £4.78
Points profit 0.54System 5- Back over 2.5 goals set and forget odds 2.28
Trades 52
Won 31
Lost 21
Strike rate 59.62%
Profit £157.32
Points profit 17.98My new trading bank for August is £689.09 and my new stakes starting tomorrow will be £13.78.
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@james-everard also what I find is that people struggle with downswings when they have to wait to recover it, like with high strike rate required strats, very mentally tough!
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@martin Thanks Martin , it has taken me a long time to get here but think i am finally on the right road. I spent far too long with strategies where you needed a high strike rate to be profitable and with variance i wasn't making any money.
I have taken one bit of advice which seems to have turned the table which is regarding odds getting within price ranges and the strike rates don't need to be so high and you can still be in profit with the variance. -
@james-everard thanks for the update, following with interest well done!
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HI All , thought i would do an update on my football systems and i will update July's results in a few days time. Here are my results from June ( albeit a little late)
System 1-LCS on 60mins if no 2nd half goal -
Trades 19
Won 15
Lost 4
s/rate 78.95%
Profit £33.50System 2 -Laying the Underdog
Trades 5
Won 1
Lost 4
s/r 20%
Lost of -£16.77System 3
Lay unders for h1 goal
Trades 12
Won 3
Lost 9
s/rate 36.36%
Lost -£34.58System 3 Back over 1.56 goals odds 1.56
Trades 47
Won 28
Lost 19
S/Rate 59.57%
Lost -£28.58System 4 - Injury Time goal
Trades 5
Won 1
Lost 4
s/rate 20%
Profit £88.21System 5- H2 Goal lcs on 60mins
Trades 19
Won 15
Lost 4
s/rate 78.95%
Profit £33.50Profit for June across all the strategies is £41.78 , and the new bank for the start of June was £436.78 and new stakes for the month of £8.75.
I reviewed my strategies further and have added a 2.5 goal set and forget and amended the 1.5 system to also be a set and forget at 2.28 odds.
The injury time system i have also changed to a split stake late goal system going in on 81,85,88 and 90+1 mins .
The first half goal market i have also amended ,i am also doing split staking on 31,35,40 and 44 mins
Will update the results for July in a few days time but looking at my bank now i have a made healthy profit this month and finally feel i am getting the rewards looking much more at the odds rather than strike rate.
For instance the 2.5 system working on a 50% strike rate i would still be in profit -
Potentials for today
Back half 2 goal odds 1.56
12noon-!sweden div 1 norra-Stockholm internationals vs motala
19.30 Argentina Prem b- Canvelas vs Vila San Carlos
20.00 USA mls- Charlotte vs New York red bulls
Back over 1.5 goals odds 1.56
13.00 Sweden div2 norrland- skellerftea vs gottneif
13.00 Sweden div 2 norrland- Bodens vs Ostersund ifk
15.00 Sweden div2 svealand- hudiksvalls vs ifk stock subs
19.30 Argentina Prem b- Cominicaciones vs Uai Urquiza
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@chris-osborne said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
Nothing for weds either!
Dont think there's going to be much until next weekend when Internationals are done
A few are on my filters for the weekend but some leagues aren’t on betfair so will be very few if any. A couple of months ago I would be desperate to find a trade now it doesn’t bother me if no trades to do I look at in a different light.
How’s your trading been ?
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@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
Nothing for weds either!
Dont think there's going to be much until next weekend when Internationals are done
