MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY
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Update for October , had my meltdown earlier in my month , but retrieved slightly the situtation
With a starting bank of £857.11 at the start of October here is the breakdown of the two systemsLate goal 80+mins (split stake 81,85,88,90+1)
Trades 34
Won 12
Lost 22
Loss -£43.32
S/rate 35.29%System 2 - Laying the underdog if they take the lead
Laying Home undedog
Trades 23
Won 5
Lost 18
S/rate 21.74%
Loss -£178.47Laying Away Underdog
Trades 13
Won 6
Lost 7
Loss -£24.07
S/rate 46.15%The laying of the underdog , i changed later in the month to only entering on 65mins if the underdog is ahead , if they are leading in the first half , i find the odds are too high to make any decent profit with a 2% liability stake and with bad variance this month on the system the loss was higher.
I have tightened the filter also on the laying of the home underdog which hopefully will reduce the losses in this system.So with a monthly total loss of £245.86, my new trading bank is now £611.25 , liabilty stakes per trade now reduced to £12.22, here's to a better month so far so good with 3 small wins out of 3
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On top of my amendment to laying of the underdog entry time, . I am looking where available at the line ups making sure the top goal scorers /assists are playing.
And also i am going to check the inplay stats more , i had a match this evening on my filter in the Belgium premier league - Eupen vs Leven , the home team were the underdog and 3-2 up , line up for the away side was good but the inplay stats showed the home team were dominant so left trading the match . Good job to as it ended up 4-2.
Much more indepth analyis along with pre match stats i think will be vital in reducing the losses -
Had a night to sleep over it, i lost the plot yesterday mentally which was the biggest disappointment so sorry for losing my head yesterday.
Others have said just look at the bank i have built up it is still in decent profit.
The laying of the underdog system i am amending my entry point to only entering if the underdog is in front on 65mins or if they are 2-0 up. The rewards for laying teams over 2.2 isn't profitable long term for me , and all my decent returns are for later equalisers.
The late goal filter i must believe in and just going through a downturn period of variance and could swing the other way soon. In fact the one match today produced a decent win with a 93rd min goal.
Will catch up reading some of yours posts on the football thread -
@james-everard have a look at the main football thread before you do anything, a number in the same boat
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@richard-latimer said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
Are they low odds? If you take low odds you will get long losing streaks even from profitable strategies.
Yes on the late goal strategy i split the stakes over 4 on 81,85,88 and 90+1 mins the first lay on the next goal market is normally max 1.6- 1.75. Think though i have managed just 1 win and that was only a small win as that came in the 83rd min. The filter picks matches with overall scored in 60% of matches have a goal 80+mins but the strike rate this month must be around 5% !!
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Are they low odds? If you take low odds you will get long losing streaks even from profitable strategies.
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@dan-mackinnon said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard I had something similar earlier this month. Bank got cut by 1/3 and I was so annoyed with myself. Exactly the same as you said, felt like I had cracked it and was even considering putting more money into the bank to get things growing quicker.
Since then I've sat back and analysed what went wrong. For me it was being greedy and as a result overstaking. The signs of greed were obvious when you think "I've made it" or "let's start upping the bank" and you think more about how you're going to spend the money than minimising risk.
The positive is, you've already proved to yourself you can get that money back and all is not lost. Like Richard said, remember what you started with and you can see you're making progress. When you figure out where you went wrong, go a little slow and steady until you get back into the groove and I'm sure you'll make that money back in no time and feel more in control when you do.
I definitely think that is the biggest barrier between decent hobby/ part time traders vs full time pros.
Best of luck mate!
Thanks for your reply mate , laying the underdog system i am going to only trades matches where the underdog is winning on 75mins that was where most of my profit has come from on the system.
The late goal 80+ mins i can't believe how much this system is down , although the ones that do win seem to be games i have not been able to trade and tend to be injury time goals!, think i have only won one trade this month on the system! -
Within a year you quadrupled your bank- amazing.
Even after the recent set-back, your bank is still 250% greater.
James, you have had a huge rise in profit. May be you have experienced a correction.
Either way, look at the positive. Most people would kill to have that profitability after one year.
Whatever, don't start messing around with criteria unless you have reached half your maximum drawdown. -
Is it specific leagues or across the board. For example Scandinavian leagues have been troublesome of late as there seasons draw to a close.
By all means send me your spreadsheet and I’ll have a look
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@richard-latimer Started a year ago back with a £200 bank and got upto £857.12 ( increasing my staking each month based on 2% of my new bank ), now lost £300 of that within 2 weeks not sure where to go from here now lost all confidence in the systems
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@chris-osborne Yes but i'm not exaggerating every trade i have done has lost and the ones i missed would have won ie just popped to the shops and D Zagreb got a 94min goal in my late goal system which would have won me over £100 !!!
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@james-everard I had something similar earlier this month. Bank got cut by 1/3 and I was so annoyed with myself. Exactly the same as you said, felt like I had cracked it and was even considering putting more money into the bank to get things growing quicker.
Since then I've sat back and analysed what went wrong. For me it was being greedy and as a result overstaking. The signs of greed were obvious when you think "I've made it" or "let's start upping the bank" and you think more about how you're going to spend the money than minimising risk.
The positive is, you've already proved to yourself you can get that money back and all is not lost. Like Richard said, remember what you started with and you can see you're making progress. When you figure out where you went wrong, go a little slow and steady until you get back into the groove and I'm sure you'll make that money back in no time and feel more in control when you do.
I definitely think that is the biggest barrier between decent hobby/ part time traders vs full time pros.
Best of luck mate!
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@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
Wow big lesson NEVER THINK YOU HAVE MADE IT!!!
I thought i had finally made trading after 4 years on Btc. Several months of building my bank nicely , has been totally destroyed within 2 weeks of this month.
I thought last week must have just been a bad weekend and variance has played its part,
I thought give it this weekend before i start panicking but if possible this weekend has been even worse. I really don't know where to go from here now just really disappointed and pissed off after all the hard work which meant nothing in the end !
Gutted is an understament!!! From a bank of £857.12 , in two weeks i have lost £300!!What did you start with though? I had a horrendous last couple of weeks, analysed a couple of things, and fingers crossed have found an area to improve.
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@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
Wow big lesson NEVER THINK YOU HAVE MADE IT!!!
I thought i had finally made trading after 4 years on Btc. Several months of building my bank nicely , has been totally destroyed within 2 weeks of this month.
I thought last week must have just been a bad weekend and variance has played its part,
I thought give it this weekend before i start panicking but if possible this weekend has been even worse. I really don't know where to go from here now just really disappointed and pissed off after all the hard work which meant nothing in the end !
Gutted is an understament!!! From a bank of £857.12 , in two weeks i have lost £300!!A lot of us had a bad weekend last week,
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Wow big lesson NEVER THINK YOU HAVE MADE IT!!!
I thought i had finally made trading after 4 years on Btc. Several months of building my bank nicely , has been totally destroyed within 2 weeks of this month.
I thought last week must have just been a bad weekend and variance has played its part,
I thought give it this weekend before i start panicking but if possible this weekend has been even worse. I really don't know where to go from here now just really disappointed and pissed off after all the hard work which meant nothing in the end !
Gutted is an understament!!! From a bank of £857.12 , in two weeks i have lost £300!! -
Cheers Chris. Just taken me nearly 4 years to realise less is more . No point in me taking on half a dozen strategies to be overwhelmed on a Weekend and concentrate on two systems that have proved profitable month on month . Once the bank increases , so does the stakes and it doesn't take as long as you think to build your bank.
One word for any newbies this has taken a while , if i had listened to advice from the beginning i would have not lost fortunes at the outset. Stick to one or max two strategies and if you dont want to paper trade use £1 minimum stakes, record your results and hopefully you will find a edge in the market without blowing bank after bank.
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@james-everard Cracking set of results
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Afternoon all update for September. Much quieter month with summer leagues coming to a conclusion and winter leagues not having enough data( min of 10 matches overall played). Although today i have a few leagues now meet the minimum requirement so many more matches on my potential filters for October.
As discussed before i am now sticking to two strategies that have been profitable month on month now , laying the underdog if they take the lead and also the last 10 mins goal system.
My balance before at the end of August was £652.10 with stakes of £13.04 ( but these i do as 4 splits to enhance profit)
Here are the results for SeptemberLaying the underdog if they take the lead
Total trades 24
Won 12
lost 12
s/rate 50%
profit £151.21
points profit 11.60Breakdown of the above system
Laying home underdog
Trades 10
won 4
lost 6
s/rate 40%
Profit £98.75
points 7.58Laying away underdog
Trades 14
won 8
lost 6
s/rate 57.14%
Profit £52.46
points 4.02System 2 - Late goal last 10mins ( split over 4 stakes on 81,85,88 and 91mins)
Trades 6
won 3
lost 3
s/rate 50%
profit £ 53.80
points 4.13So overall profit for the month of September was £201.01 , so my new balance is £857.11 and new stakes of 2% of the bank now being £17.14
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@james-everard yeah won't be long before that big winter league boost in selections!
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A couple of losing trades in the last couple of days , but still healthily uo so far this month. Never seen so little trades on the possibility list for the weekend, and maybe even less if any of the leagues mentioned by others the other day are on the list ( i haven't removed the leagues , as i know i will forget to reinstate them when they resume next season) but made notes on the leagues to avoid.
Looking at the league tables within 2 weeks the winter leagues will have played 10 matches and some may appear on my filters. I see the Championship has played 9, Leagues 1&2 have played 8 along with most of the european leagues . The best news now finally is i think the mentality is now set and it doesn;t bother me there is nothing to trade and i am just finding other things to occupy my time whilst in a slow period of trading.
