MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY
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@james-everard think June has just not been a good month in both Football and Horse racing, Martins Monthly updates may read a bit dire. But hope springs eternal started July in Football and Racing with a bang, so hopeful of recovery......dips and troughs as we know!!
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Afternoon all , not been on here for a week had a nice short break in lovely Slovenia ( Lake Bled) , what a place to recharge your batteries.
Results not been great for June here is the results breakdown. I have tightened up Martins back over 1.5 system half way through and will give it one more month to see if it improves. The Tomaz version of the lay over 3.5 goals has not been good , others must have had a disaster with this system as well, i have now decided to take out the Singapore league which has had 4 losses.System 1- Tomaz lay over 3.5 goals (odds under 3.50)
Trades 21, won 10, lost 11, s/rate 47.62%, loss of -£31.92System 2- Tomaz lay under 1.5 goals ( odds under 3.50)
Trades 11, won7,lost 4,s/rate 63.64% loss of -£5.89System 3- Martin's back over 1.5 goals ( odds 1.25+)
Trades 16,won 11, lost 5,s/rate 68.75%, loss -£13.47System 4- Back goal last 10mins
Trades 25,won 6,lost 19,s/rate 24% loss -£53.24 . Missed 6 matches though that would have won so would have been profitableSystem 5- Back h2 goal odds 1.36+
Trades 7,won 4 lost 3, s/rate 57.14% , Loss - £ 11.23System 6- Martin's lay away at kick off
Trades 10,won 8, lost 2, s/rate 80%,profit £3.02System 7- Back Draw at kick off odds 3.0 plus
Trades 18, won 7, lost 11, s/rate 38.89% Profit £46.96so overall a monthly loss of -£65.77 , new bank of £352.40 a new liability stake of £7.05
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@james-everard fantastic well done!
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Hi all bit of a late update for Mays results.
Back home to win h2 if drawing - Trades 4, won 4 profit £27.50
Tomaz lay under 1.5 goals - trades 15,won 12, lost 3, s/rate 80% profit £21.53
Martin's Back ov 1.5 goals- Trades 15,won 13,lost 2,s/rate 80% profit £12.93
Martin's lay away at k/o- Trades 3,won 3, lost 1, s/rate 75% loss £0.22p
Tomaz/Martins Lay over 3.5 goals- Trades 8,won 5,lost 3,s/rate 62.50% profit £12.22
Back Draw at Ko- Trades 26, won 7,lost 19,s/rate 26.92% loss -£33.45
Back h2 goal odds 1.35+ Trades 7,won 6,lost 1, s/rate 85.71% profit £13.21Total monthly profit £53.72, new balance £418.17 . New liability stakes of £8.36
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That time again a break down of my trades for April. The Set and forgets wasn't a great month as others have experienced as well but hoping that was because of the end of the regular European seasons and May will be more fruitful.
I gave up with the elo aways not sure if others have been recording the results for this strategy incase it improved or has anyone tracked backing the underdog if notMARTIN'S BACK OVER 1.5 GOALS
TRADES 119
WON 93
LOST 26
S/RATE 78.15%
MONTHLY LOSS £3.47TOMAZ UNDER 1.5 GOALS
TRADES 54
WON 32
LOST 22
S/RATE 59.26%
LOSS OF £47.26Decided to take on my BACK THE DRAW AT KO SET AND FORGET ODDS 3.0 PLUS
Trades 72
Won 23
lost 49
s/rate 31.94%
Profit £13.21Back h2 goal odds 1.36plus
Trades 24
won 18
lost 6
s/rate 75%
profit £19.11So new trading bank for May will be £364.45 and with 2% liability stakes new stakes will be £7.29. I have stopped trading the winter European leagues now until next season, but still have the South American at the moment but won't be long until the summer European leagues also meet the minimum of 10 matches played.
I have been dabbling in some tennis and Darts and find these sports so much easier to trade for my mentality compared to the horses and greyhounds i was previously doing will update on the sports at the end of May -
@james-everard good to see a profit!
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After a total change to my trading this month i decided to follow the advice and paper trade systems and also took on the set and forget systems.
Starting bank was £352.24 with liability stakes of £7.04ELO AWAY LAY SET AND FORGET
Trades 8
Won 2
Lost 6
s/rate 25%
loss -£12.01Martins back over 1.5 goals odds 1.25-1.35
Trades 41
Won 32
Lost 9
S/rate 78.05%
Won £2.06Tomaz lay under 1.5goals (min odds 3.50)
Trades 20
Won 17
Lost 3
S/Rate 85%
Profit £40.37New trading bank will now be £382.86, liability stakes increased to £7.65
Been paper trading several other systems , one of which is quite interesting Back the Draw. Looking for odds above 3.0 at kick off and currently recorded 74 trades and 29 would have won with a strike rate of just over 39, if you could filter down further your selections and get a strike rate nearer to 45% it would make massive profits. Still decent enough at that level
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@chris-osborne You are right , i have Also scrapped the backing under 1.5 1st half goal market need such a high strike rate to be profitable and with variance it won't work
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@chris-osborne Hi Chris i have scrapped the first two from the February results (laying the underdog and also got rid of the late goal one i was paper trading. The main ones are the back under 1.5 fh system and dutching the backing home/draw system. The others have produced hardly any selections to not stress me out with getting over loaded ( 14 Selections from these in the month)
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@james-everard Far too many strategies, focus on one or two
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Feb results
Laying the away underdog if they take the lead
Trades 16
won 6
lost 10
loss of £28.47
s/rate 37.50%Laying the home underdog if they take the lead
Trades 21
won 6
Lost 15
Loss of £90.79
s/rate 28.56%Back under 1.5 First half goals ( filter based on 80% under 1.5 fh goals, also for both home and away sides, aver goals per match less than 2.5 and minimum odds of 1.30 or no trade)
Trades 6
won 6
lost 0
profit £15.93
s/rate 100%Back home(underdog) plus draw ( odds under 2.80 for away team fav)
Trades 39
won 26
lost 13
s/rate 66.66%
Profit £36.90Back away at ht if drawing
Trades 6
won 3
lost 3
s.rate 50%
Profit £31.97Back home to win h1 ( odds 2.28 )
Trades 4
won 2
lost 2
s/rate 50%
Profit £6.73Back home to win h2 if drawing at ht
Trades 4
won2
lost 2
s/rate 50%
lost £0.76Total monthly loss of £26.97 , the new bank is now £352.24, new liability stakes of £7.04
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Hi All, after a terrible run on my laying of the underdog if they take the lead i have decided to scrap altogether and started looking at different way of trading.
looking the opposite way but with a different filter all based on odds. At the end of the day trading is about trying to find a edge in the market where you believe the odds are favourable.
So i am dutching only the home/draw where the favourite odds are too low and basically backing the draw and underdog. I am further looking at the selections from the filters further based on h2h and same oppo type.
Also been trading some other markets and feel so much more confident now that i will start progressing results will be updated shortly
i was paper trading the late goal this month which would have lost loads so that is finally shelved -
@chris-osborne said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
Also be useful to run through back testing when available
the exact reason I'm not deleting anything!
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Also be useful to run through back testing when available
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@martin Hi Martin i have deleted the filter , i may look at reinstating just paper trading the system i don't want to trade any money on the system.
Hopefully the other systems will be profitable this month -
@james-everard may be worth monitoring rather than totally scrapping it
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Right spent the last two evenings recording my results for January. As feared the late goal 70 plus mins went from doing ok to a totally down turn over the last two weekends. Other strategies weren't so bad as feared and i think my head went with all these losses on this system and perhaps looking back i should have stopped trading the system after this Saturday but lesson learnt.
System 1- Lay unders market on 74mins
Trades 77
Won 28
Lost 49
Loss £47.04System 2 - Lay the away underdog
Trades 8
Won 5
Lost 3
Loss £3.22System 3 - Late goal last 10mins split stake
Trades 12
Won 3
Lost 9
Profit £0.54pSystem 4 - Lay the Home underdog
Trades 13
Won 9
Lost 4
Profit £50.40after all that i made a whopping £0.68p profit. So the start of January the bank was £378.53 , new trading bank is £379.21 and at liab stakes of £7.58.
I will scrap the the late goal 70 plus system and keep the others . -
Not a good December , with a monthly loss of £82.06. My new trading bank £378.53. New liability stakes reduced to £7.57. Although towards the end of last month things have started to improve and the start of this month has been ok , so positive thinking i can turn the tide and get back to 3 months ago where is was doing ok
