MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY
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@james-everard I have to say im slightly concerned by that post and by the reply you gave. These leagues you are trading will never last long term. You are building quality data (every game adds up long term) on leagues that you wont be able to trade even with a semi decent bank. Qatar, Iran and almost Hashtag United level of football in England. This is absolutley not gonna work long term and youd be better narrowing in on the leagues you can. I often get worried when people show me strategies that typically dont get a lot of selections from the major leagues. You have to ask yourself why it wouldnt work as well with them or why you get so few games. Just like the message i sent about not ditching leagues too soon, like what you were going to do. You want to get as much data on a league as possible. In the early days its gonna take ages to build that up. During that time hopefully your bank is rising enough with data being built up in long term sustainable leagues, so that when your bank is of good size nothing needs to change and youll only ever be improving the strat within those leagues. You go down this route and youll almost be trading this strat until you cant anymore, which is the opposite of what you want.
The reply is the thing im worried about more. If i dont trade these leagues ill not have anything to trade and ill just give up! This mindset worries me. This is something i used to say in my gambling past. The need to always be trading/betting. I said in a recent post the need for constant self gratification is an addictive trait. Its something iv had to work on because of my past. I certainly dont ever want to see someone go through what i went through. This mindset needs work on it more than the strategies you like. There is no need to be trading every day, there is certainly no need for you to give up or lose interest if you have none. Look at the forum, Ryan and me both long term traders, both with no trades today. Its because there isnt as good an amount of opportunities today and thats fine. Your just forcing it to feel active.
The best advice i can give is imagine you needed to explain every trade to your family. Just like say a hedge fund would. If every trade you placed youd have to expalin where your families money is going would you really tell them its gone on these leagues and that if you dont have a trade active every day then there is no point to this because youll lose interest. Youd probably be looking for a new hedge fund manager. I do this for everyone one of my trades, iv a sticky note i used to put on screen to remind me of why this was a good trade and if i could answer the bullet points i entered. If you wouldnt advise this to a family member or let someone else you care about use their money with this then dont trade it. Build the mindset first for long term success. You have grafted in terms of paper trading make it count mate. You built discipline by paper trading dont let it slip when your close. Dont do what some do and pause leagues when they are red or keep them ony if they have won x amount within small data. Always think big picture. Im rooting for you mate, so hopefully this post is soaked in. But if it feels like a dig and you dont want further help then let me know and ill button it, i just dont like what the post said in terms of getting worried about your mindset for the long term.
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@james-everard no worries, I'll leave you to it.
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@chris-osborne said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
James have a look at what Darri and Keith posted in Dari’s blog about the leagues you trade. Personally I think you need to cut a lot if the lower and less developed leagues out, you’ll struggle for liquidity anyway.
It would explain why you have high volumes and make your records easier to update
@chris-osborne said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
James have a look at what Darri and Keith posted in Dari’s blog about the leagues you trade. Personally I think you need to cut a lot if the lower and less developed leagues out, you’ll struggle for liquidity anyway.
It would explain why you have high volumes and make your records easier to update
Hi Chris/Richard. Thanks for your advice but i am going to stick to these leagues for this month and see how i get on. This system is all i have to trade and reducing it further will just leave me bored and lose interest all together. I am only doing 2% stakes of my bank so enough liquidity in these leagues. I monitor the inplay stats as well to see if the favourite is on top in the game if they fall behind
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James have a look at what Darri and Keith posted in Dari’s blog about the leagues you trade. Personally I think you need to cut a lot if the lower and less developed leagues out, you’ll struggle for liquidity anyway.
It would explain why you have high volumes and make your records easier to update
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@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
Morning all , just gone through my filters today and have the following selections, on my ltd and stuarts ltd just gathering the data so not trading , my ltud will be trading if the underdog falls behind
My ltd at k/o
15.00pm Eng Isthmian Prem- Kingstonian vs Lewes
15.00pm Eng Isthmian Prem- Cheshunt vs Haringey
15.00pm Eng Isthmian Prem- Bowers and Pitsea vs MargateStuarts set and forget ltd
13.00 Qatar Qsl- Shamal vs Al Gharafa
15.00pm Eng Conf National- Altrincham vs Stockport
15.20pm Qatar Qsl- Al Ahli Doha vs Qatar ScLay the Underdog if they take the lead all laying of the home side
11.30pm Iran Prem- Naft Masjed Soleyman (15/16) vs Gol Gohar (3rd)
15.00pm Eng Isthmian Prem- Cray (20/22) vs Enfield Town ( 5/22)
15.20pm Qatar Qsl- Al Sailliya (12/12) vs Al-Sadd ( 1st)
20.15pm Spain La Liga - Cadiz ( 19/20) vs Seville( 2nd)Do you have a decent amount of league data on Qatar, Iran and the Isthmian for your lay the underdog? I trade some lower leagues but personally wouldn't touch Iran or the Isthmian.
Surely Betfair won't often have the match let alone have it inplay and the liquidity will most likely be shocking too.
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Morning all , just gone through my filters today and have the following selections, on my ltd and stuarts ltd just gathering the data so not trading , my ltud will be trading if the underdog falls behind
My ltd at k/o
15.00pm Eng Isthmian Prem- Kingstonian vs Lewes
15.00pm Eng Isthmian Prem- Cheshunt vs Haringey
15.00pm Eng Isthmian Prem- Bowers and Pitsea vs MargateStuarts set and forget ltd
13.00 Qatar Qsl- Shamal vs Al Gharafa
15.00pm Eng Conf National- Altrincham vs Stockport
15.20pm Qatar Qsl- Al Ahli Doha vs Qatar ScLay the Underdog if they take the lead all laying of the home side
11.30pm Iran Prem- Naft Masjed Soleyman (15/16) vs Gol Gohar (3rd)
15.00pm Eng Isthmian Prem- Cray (20/22) vs Enfield Town ( 5/22)
15.20pm Qatar Qsl- Al Sailliya (12/12) vs Al-Sadd ( 1st)
20.15pm Spain La Liga - Cadiz ( 19/20) vs Seville( 2nd) -
@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
Potential trades for today Sunday 2nd of Jan
Stuarts set and forget - No trades
My own set and forget
13.00 Spain La Liga 2- Valladoid vs Leganes WON £1.20 FT 1-0
13.00 Spain La Liga 2- Almeria vs Cartagena WON £1.19 FT 0-1
14.00 England Champ - Birmingham vs QPR WON £1.15 FT 1-2
15.00 England Nat Prem- Woking vs Aldershot DIDN'T TRADE 2-3 FT
15.00 England Nat North- Boston Utd vs Alfreton DIDN'T TRADE 2-3 FT
15.00 Scotland L2- Stranraer vs Annan DIDN'T TRADE 1-1 FTLay the underdog if they take the lead
15.00 Scotland Champ- Raith vs Dunfermline ( lay away) NO TRADE 0-0 FT
15.00 Scotland L2- Kelty Hearts vs Cowdenbeath ( lay away) MATCH POSTPONED
15.00 England Nat North - Kettering vs Brackley ( lay home) LOST £5.36 FT 3-1Right having read Richards and Darri's comments i am going to hold off Stuarts set and Forget and My own ltd until i have anaysised the data. Hopefully i can find some decent performing leagues and odds ranges and eliminate the poor performing leagues. Maybe no leagues are performing to a level of worth persevering with until i know for sure i will hold off trading these.
Anyway might as well report today's trades. Highlighted above.
Lost a point and half on the laying of Kettering done a one point trade and then a further 1/2 point on 85mins when the 3rd goal went in for Kettering but to no avail -
@darri exactly what I was referring to. Definitely not just tracking for a rebound on current but whether it revealed anything else. Also depends very much how open the data being collected is. If it's only a very small range of 2 or 3 criteria there is clearly less you can potentially do with it.
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@richard-latimer As you can see from my post mate, its asks if there are potential tweaks to improve this. If not while yes its technically profitable its still a massive grind. I dont believe there would be a point in continuing the strategy collecting data on this if there are no ways to improve. Based on what james has said sounds like he maybe hasnt looked that much into tweaks. Tracking a strategy that doesnt perform and just collecting data incase of a rebound is pointless in my opinion. Its a waste of time. There are a plethora of fantastic strategies out there already proven to work. Its easy to build a profitable strategy in fact everyone does, but not everyone manages thats strategy well or even the data behind it. So yes while i agree dont ditch if there are tweaks, but if you just look at his results 1,465 trades with £2 liabilities thats a bank outlay of £2,900 to make just £83. Yet the other strat which is still too small in data but seems to be solid as it would take an almighty drawdown to kill that profit, but if you just use £1 more which is still a lot safer than the £2 on all the 1,465 trades elsewhere then hed make pretty much the same amount for a tiny fraction of the trades. I get you love the data collecting side mate but there is stubborn then there is pointless effort, there are too many good strats out there at the moment to be getting to 1000 trades worth of data and yet no clear path to decent sustainable profits.
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@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@darri said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard welcome back mate hopefully now you can kick on with these and get to the bank you desire.
Stuarts LTD = £0.06 per trade
Your own LTD = £0.05 per trade
LTUD = £0.99 per tradeWhile of course its early days still with the LTUD, its clearly where my money would be going. Id more likely be ditching the other 2 as you are needing such huge volume to make the other 2 worthwhile. You add both the LTD strats together thats £83 in 1,465 trades, that to me seems too small to be worthwhile in my opinion. Is there tweaks you can make with these to improve that, perhaps an odds range that might be affecting top end liabilities? The LTUD seems to be killing it on the other hand, if it continues to show this level of profit t, good luck for 2022 mate
Hi Darri happy new year mate , i feel like Stuarts set and forget is turning into profitability after a couple of poor months , my own set and forget i see exactly what you are seeing mate , i am going to analyse the data on this as plenty of results to go through, just seems loads of work recording to just ditch. i have started to go through yesterday evening and will continue the next few days for instance Australia i have noticed is a league to scrap, will post once i have made a decision.
Don't ditch, just don't trade it currently. Keep tracking until you feel you can't track anymore or it's simply not worth it. You never know, but you may see an entirely new pattern unfold before your eyes that you hadn't been looking for and certainly weren't expecting.
When I was loooking at multi angles for inplay 2nd half goals based on when a team scored and what the score was at the time etc I wasn't aware just how much priceless data I was collecting for a simple 2nd half goal. Without that base I wouldn't have anywhere near as much to build on as I have now.
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Potential trades for today Sunday 2nd of Jan
Stuarts set and forget - No trades
My own set and forget
13.00 Spain La Liga 2- Valladoid vs Leganes
13.00 Spain La Liga 2- Almeria vs Cartagena
14.00 England Champ - Birmingham vs QPR
15.00 England Nat Prem- Woking vs Aldershot
15.00 England Nat North- Boston Utd vs Alfreton
15.00 Scotland L2- Stranraer vs AnnanLay the underdog if they take the lead
15.00 Scotland Champ- Raith vs Dunfermline ( lay away)
15.00 Scotland L2- Kelty Hearts vs Cowdenbeath ( lay away)
15.00 England Nat North - Kettering vs Brackley ( lay home) -
@darri said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard welcome back mate hopefully now you can kick on with these and get to the bank you desire.
Stuarts LTD = £0.06 per trade
Your own LTD = £0.05 per trade
LTUD = £0.99 per tradeWhile of course its early days still with the LTUD, its clearly where my money would be going. Id more likely be ditching the other 2 as you are needing such huge volume to make the other 2 worthwhile. You add both the LTD strats together thats £83 in 1,465 trades, that to me seems too small to be worthwhile in my opinion. Is there tweaks you can make with these to improve that, perhaps an odds range that might be affecting top end liabilities? The LTUD seems to be killing it on the other hand, if it continues to show this level of profit t, good luck for 2022 mate
Hi Darri happy new year mate , i feel like Stuarts set and forget is turning into profitability after a couple of poor months , my own set and forget i see exactly what you are seeing mate , i am going to analyse the data on this as plenty of results to go through, just seems loads of work recording to just ditch. i have started to go through yesterday evening and will continue the next few days for instance Australia i have noticed is a league to scrap, will post once i have made a decision.
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@james-everard welcome back mate hopefully now you can kick on with these and get to the bank you desire.
Stuarts LTD = £0.06 per trade
Your own LTD = £0.05 per trade
LTUD = £0.99 per tradeWhile of course its early days still with the LTUD, its clearly where my money would be going. Id more likely be ditching the other 2 as you are needing such huge volume to make the other 2 worthwhile. You add both the LTD strats together thats £83 in 1,465 trades, that to me seems too small to be worthwhile in my opinion. Is there tweaks you can make with these to improve that, perhaps an odds range that might be affecting top end liabilities? The LTUD seems to be killing it on the other hand, if it continues to show this level of profit t, good luck for 2022 mate
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@stuart-capstick Cheers Stuart nice to be back again, i want to be more part of the community on here from now on. Hope you are all good mate?
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Hi James.
Great to see you back.
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@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
I will be updating far more regularly on this blog to keep myself disciplined and if others have any constructive ideas your input will be greatly appreciated. Discipline and bank management is key to making this work and hopefully this is the year it finally can take off
Trades for today from my filters
Stuarts Set and forget ltd
- 12.30pm - Eng Prem - Arsenal vs Man City - Won £1.13 (1-2 FT)
15.00pm Eng Prem- Watford vs Spurs Won £0.92 ( 0-1 FT)
My own set and forget ltd
15.00pm Eng Ismithian Prem- Worthing vs Horsham Won £1.03( FT 3-1)
15.00pm Northern Ire Prem- Ballymena vs Portadown ( Didn't get matched would have won ft 4-0)Lay the Underdog if they take the lead
15.00pm England L1- MK Dons (7th) vs Gillingham (23/24) lay away ( NO TRADE 0-0 FT)
15.00pm England L1- Oxford Utd (5th) vs Cheltenham (14/22) lay away (WON £3.86 0-1 ON 48 , EQUQ 82ND)
15.00pm England L1- Rotherham ( 2nd) vs Bolton ( 15/24) lay away ( NO TRADE 2-1 FT)A good start my new journey but was lucky with two injury time goals, just got to make sure i accept the bad days when they come.
- 12.30pm - Eng Prem - Arsenal vs Man City - Won £1.13 (1-2 FT)
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@chris-osborne Hi Chris , the laying of the underdog system the big profits occur if you have a late goal scored by the underdog and the favourite equalizes, if you can get 1 or 2 a month it boosts the profit on the system.
I am going to be a geek tonight and spend the evening going through all of the data to breakdown leagues /teams odds ranges etc and will let you know mate.
Hows things with you mate hope you have had a nice Christmas and new year? -
I will be updating far more regularly on this blog to keep myself disciplined and if others have any constructive ideas your input will be greatly appreciated. Discipline and bank management is key to making this work and hopefully this is the year it finally can take off
Trades for today from my filters
Stuarts Set and forget ltd
- 12.30pm - Eng Prem - Arsenal vs Man City
15.00pm Eng Prem- Watford vs Spurs
My own set and forget ltd
15.00pm Eng Ismithian Prem- Worthing vs Horsham
15.00pm Northern Ire Prem- Ballymena vs PortadownLay the Underdog if they take the lead
15.00pm England L1- MK Dons (7th) vs Gillingham (23/24) lay away
15.00pm England L1- Oxford Utd (5th) vs Cheltenham (14/22) lay away
15.00pm England L1- Rotherham ( 2nd) vs Bolton ( 15/24) lay away - 12.30pm - Eng Prem - Arsenal vs Man City
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So the big day has finally arrived my start of trading properly , after completing my spreadsheet of results i have a bank of £178.32 , so will be using 2% liability stakes which i think i have worked out correctly is £3.57 liability stakes per trade.
I will be working off these three strategies i have been logging the results for although system 2 my own ltd hasn't been making profit the last couple of months i am not losing hardly anything but i will be examining the data i have over the weekend of this system to omit leagues and find the odds ranges that are profitable.
The other two systems appear to making reasonable profit so will carry on with (again will look into the data to see if i can tweak at all to make more profit -
@james-everard Results speak for them selves James the third strategy looks by far the most profitable to me - Are the results coming from one or two leagues or spread about