From Goals To Match Points
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@james-woodroffe possibly was also a day or so before England played Ukraine saw some pictures of her in a ukraine shirt possibly didn’t want to be in the country
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@chris-osborne never a bad idea to take a break mate. I wonder if Svitolina mentally checked out as her and Gael Monfils got married on the weekend?
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@ryan cycling, Swimming and Athletics would be my defaults but I also like watching the sports we don’t see much of such ad Rowing an Triathlon for example. For some reason Women’s Beach Volleyball draws me in, can’t iinagine why.
Basically I’ll watch anything GB has a medal chance in or where there outstanding performances although without fans it will be a different olympics than what we are used to.
With iPlayer and Eurosport every sport should now be covered which means won’t have to sit through the biased bbc mainstream coverage where they show very little other than British competitors especially in sports such as Athletics and Swimming heats.
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@chris-osborne
I am enjoying this post, I think time off from time to time is always good. Even better when there is some more sport on, if you can take a break you'll find you probs enjoy it more as well - you won't be thinking about oh I need to do that trade, you can get stuck into the games!
Which events are a particular highlight for you?
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Didn't realise it's been a month since I last updated here will try yo do so more often.
Wimbledon
As I've posted in the main thread, I found this a difficult tournament to trade. Eventually ended up as break even which I'll take.
I lost a fair bit of confidence and 3pts in one trade which was Svitolina's pathetic and embarrassing lack of effort in her 2nd round loss to Magda Linette. I can understand players not being motivated in the regular tournaments but to give the impression of not trying in a Grand Slam I can't accept. She's usually a fighter but just didn't seem to be interested here. Linette is an average player no more than that woth the occasional good result but she shouldn't have been a match for Svitolina here. She needs to be careful and turn things around because results haven;t been great all year. Rankings are finally and slowly correcting and when everything plays out if there is no improvement I would expect her ranking to fall significantly along with a few other top 10 players - Kenin and Andreescu for two. Andreescu is going to lose all her points from the US Open win in 2019 soon and she doesn't have much else to offset - her fall could be dramatic.
Was scratching around after that but it was all a bit of a struggle.
Tennis Going Forward
I've come to the conclusion that European tournaments unless there are evening sessions are virtually impossible for me to trade, I'm therefore going to leave them alone for the time being. North American tournaments are starting to come into the calendar in the lead up to the US Open which are idea from a timing point of view for me.
Taking A Break
Although still collecting data etc, I've decided to take a break from trading until the start of August for a few reasons: -
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I'm a massive Olympics fan and will be watching as much as I can.
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With most football leagues starting over the next few weeks hopefully most of them with fans in attendance, things should hopefully ramp up there gradually. I stopped trading football at the start of this year due to the massiviely distorted results that we're occurring without fans globally.
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I want to look at some sort of Tennis Model will take time to develop and I'm not rushing it, giving myself to the end of the year but want to make a start when not trading.
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Above all i need a break to clear the head
Will still be posting from time to time but not actively trading other than set and forgets
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Took last week off from Tennis trading with the Euro's going on wanted to watch alot of that and also with Wimbledon coming up starting next week, it will get busy very quickly.
Traded a bit yesterday but with Eastbourne being rained off, and the line up in Hamburg being alot of potential easy win's. However did make half a point profit on Kvitova losing the first set to someone I'd never heard of, motivation was a question so went in on half stakes but she turned it round.
From the Euro's, been a strange one gone from three pts up to 4pts down and all places in between. Unfortunately, currently on the wrong side of the swing and probably leaving any trading there untl the knock out stages start later in the week as you have to question some teams motivation and especially where they wamt to end up in the group.
I have enjoyed watching the tournament however, especially the Dutch, the Germany v Portugal game was superb. That grouo with France also involved could well see one of those three missing out as I cant see the third place team coming from that group. Spain as well could also be in trouble as there aren't going to be three teams coming out of that group either.
Busy today so very little trading if any for me today although if late play in Eastbourne might get involved there.
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@chris-osborne Nicely played on the tennis buddy!
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Been busy with work bit behind on end of month update for MAy.
Tennis
Exceptional month with a few ups and downs, ended up 11pts profit from 65 trades for the WTA and 1.4 pts profit from the ATP from 26 trades
After a blip at the start of the month, cut back on my liability and not letting trades run which has made a big difference.
With the French Open currently going on I've been focussing predominantly on the WTA at the minute. For the French Open I am currently showing around 5pts profit. Not sure whether or not I'll trade much more of the tournament as its reaching the latter stages.
If I can take a profit or at worse a break even position out of each week;s tournaments that's all I'm looking for currently which will mean I can increase my bankroll and hopefully scale up.
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In limited football trading ended up with a break even position.
With Euro's starting on Friday, may look to get involved inplay in the goals markets.
The lack of games hitting filters at the minute is a bit of a concern I guess most of the Summer Leagues are taking a break for Euro's also South America most leagues are on hold due to COVID
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@james-woodroffe Thanks James I've kind of come round to that way of thinking today as well case in point being the Barty v Swiatek game. Probably a dubious game to get in on as Barty got stronger as the 1st set went on but her stats in the 2nd set are alot worse than other sets. Got out after she broke and held for minimal loss.
Definitely the way forward for the time being.
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@chris-osborne It’s just my thought mate, and baring in mind that I’m not trading the tennis whilst working on it I would suggest that if the player that you’re opposing breaks and then holds their serve to consolidate the break I’d just get out. Obviously there’s times when the opposed player gets broken back later in the set but I think by that stage it’s more a punt than a trade and the beauty of tennis being that there’s no shortage of it so perhaps that’s the exit point set in stone then. If they consolidate the break just move on and take the red and wait for your next qualifier. It is tricky with the girls cause we see the lead blown and if you get out with the break consolidated it gives you the opportunity to re enter if we get to 3-3 for example but only re enter when the opposed player is serving.
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@james-woodroffe @Matt-Wood Thanks for the responses
James I'm mainly trading WTA its probably an 80/20 split. Your right, we are talking lay the 1st set winner. When it works in your favour its the easiest trade in the world to manage but when it goes against you is when I run into difficulties.
The scenario you mentioned is typically when things go wrong for me. If the break game in the first few games of the set say 1-1 I would definitely let the player I'm opposing serve because especially in the WTA, there are consecutive breaks that occur. Problem I havebeen encountering is when the player we're opposing, then holds and breaks for the second time in the next game at which point my stake has virtually gone. Do I cut my losses after the serve following the initial break and renter when there serving or just move on.
I guess another option is to split my stake on my initial entry and then add to if needs be to reduce the liability especially if the second break occurs. This leads into the comments about value entry points Matt.
I'll post a couple of trade examples over the next few days as and when they occur in the tennis thread both positive and negative.
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@chris-osborne Interesting stuff
Your alarming discovery was very similar to a discovery I made on my unders trading (although I am only paper trading at the moment). I had a similar situation. My unders was not doing as well as expected. Like your tennis trades I should only ever have circa half of the stake at risk. Same discovery that once I looked into it I was alarmed at how often it had been full stake or more than half.
I have tried to come up with a concrete rule about what to do when the trade goes against me. Will trial this over the next month and see. Idea being it is an automatic thing so I dont get to 'think' about it and cost my self more than half the stake.
Not sure if you could come up with something similar for your tennis trades?
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@chris-osborne hey mate are you predominantly trading one over the other WTA or ATP?
With the WTA for example what’s your thoughts if the player you opposed breaks serve but breaks early ie first game of set or maybe at 1-1 (sorry I’m assuming that your main strategy is still laying the first set winner?) As we know the girls give each other more opportunities to break back. Have you set a cut off in the set or are you getting out as soon as your player is broken? -
April Recap
April can be summed up as a month of two halves.
At the 18th April when tournaments finished before new one's started the following week Tennis was in profit by 8pts, ended up at just over 2pts profit.
I'd have taken 2pts profit at the start of the month but ended up a bit disappointed by the end of the month. Have done a bit of analysis on where I'm losing money which is below and also made an alarming discovery which I'm now trying to correct
In the limited football trading I placed in April ended up break even. I pretty much stopped trading the winter leagues now and will focus on the Summer Leagues but only where there are crowds. I will not trade any game without crowds which will apply next season in the Winter Leagues also.
Tennis Analysis
I have a theory that I struggle more at the start of tournaments than towards the end. I've gone back to March 01st and this is what I have discovered: -
Rnds 1, 3 and SF's are a concerns although there is limited volume the later in tournaments we go as people get knocked out
Worrying Discovery - Trades That Go Against Me
The theory behind tennis trading is to remove liability as the match progresses which is straightforward when things go your way, ultimately leaving yourself a freebet which you can hedge or leave running which is personal preference. You should never have a full stake at risk.
I knew it had happened a few times but looking into the data, I was alarmed by how many occasions I'd lost a full stake even takng half a stake loss would have increrased by profitibility significantly.
It happens when trades go against me which can get out of control fairly quickly and I need ot do a better job of managing although not sure at times how to do this. One of the main issues I have is do I stay in a trade for a couple of games to see if turns around which can happen in tennis trades or do I cash out as soon as the player I'm opposing breaks serve not giving a trade chance to breathe?
Not every trade is going to go my way but another thought that occurs is am I entering trades when I don't have the value to do so which could be causing them to go against me so quickly.
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Carrying on the theme from my last post, been a light trading week this week again focussing on Tennis 11 trades placed with 2.4 pts profit. Not happy with the strike rate but 4 of the losing trades should have been avoided.
As I posted in the Tennis thread instead of removing liability on a trade after a break of serve somehow managed to add to it. Also got on the wrong side of MTO's not through choice, was already in a couple of trades dabbled with trying to get more out of them and they went against me. Will be leaving alone from now on.
Also three points profit on the football pretty much all from Stuarts LTD strategy which alongside Ryan's split stake is about all I'm doing with football at the minute until fans are back. Looks like crowds in some of the Summer Leagues just starting up which is encouraging.
Day off today due to the FA Cup SF against Southampton. First SF we've been in since 1982 which we lost to Spurs at Villa Park. I was 12 at the time and was at that game and was more memorable for a cracking own goal by Ian Wilson than anything else. Although we've reached 4 finals and lost the lot, the last one in 1969 was a few months before I was born would be good to reach another one. However, the events of the last couple of weeks could have destroyed what was a close knit dressing room and I have my doubts although from all accounts energy has been increased in training this week
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How My Tennis Trading Will Help My Approach to Football Going Forward
As I've posted in the past, I've pretty much stopped trading football until fans are back hopefully next season. However, up to a few weeks ago my football trading was clearly suffering from FOMO and I was getting involved in far too many games and strategies, spending too long in from of my PC.
However, there is an importtant lesson I have learnt from the Tennis trading I am doing in that less is more. I am happily trading 3 or 4 games a day and not looking to get involved in much else if I have made 2/3 points profit for the day or chasing losses which I am prone to do in football.
FOMO and Overtrading are two things I need to cut out in my football trading when I start back up again next season. Neither are an issue in Tennis and shouldn't be in football
Although not trading football, I am still collecting data and tracking a couple of portential strategies nothing I want to go public on but one of them is looking encouraging.
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@james-woodroffe Thanks for the heads up James
