From Goals To Match Points
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You can probably tell when things aren't going so well for me as the frequency of my updates reduce.
I don't feel like I am making progress currently and have to decide over the next few months how and what I carry on trading. I also need to take the key decision as to if I carry on at all. I'm still enjoying it but I need to start seeing some kinds of progress or even a plan as to how I proceed.
As @Eamonn-Hogan posted yesterday, i have also decided earlier this week to take a step back from what I am trading and carry out further paper testing for the rest of this year. As with Eammon, I'll continue trading @Darri LTD and @ryan's split stake when I can to hopefully tide me over.
I have two potential strategies I am testing one Ratings based and one from a filter with a couple of variables which I will post Deep Dives on in here over the next week or so. They both look promising and the stats look fine but they may be deceiving me.
The Tennis season is drawing to a close. I've also put a stop to this for the time being for similar reasons. Up to Wimbledon everything was going great and I was profitible most weeks but since the start of Wimbledon its been incredibly difficult and I can't put anything consistently together. For tennis, my approach will be slightly different and I want to analyse data and results in more detail.
My current view is that I would like football to become more set and forget with tennis my main sport to trade over the long term. In play football trading is not for me at all whereas Tennis I am incredibly comfortable trading in play and do enjoy that side of things alot.
The area of trading that attracts me more right now both in Football and Tennis is backing favourites who go behind, lends itself nicely to a couple of tennis strategies and also football to a lesser extent.
Gaining maximum value in terms of entry and exit points in tennis in particular and also football less so is an area I definitely need to address.
Apologies for the negativity its where I feel I am at the moment
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@matt-wood said in From Goals To Match Points:
Well done pulling the 5pts down on footy back.
I can honestly say that focusing on my mistakes has made a huge difference to my trading. We all want to fill our bucket up but we spend so much time and effort looking at ways to pour more in at the top and we don't spend long enough looking at plugging the holes in the bottom.
Plugging my holes has meant my bucket is filling up with no more effort put into pouring in at the top.
Hope that made sense It does in my head at leastHopefully your car won't protest too much next week
spot on there, sometimes just pulling it back is the victory in itself! well done @Chris-Osborne
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I think most people had a poor September, I know I did anyway. I have had three losing months in the last 14 and 2 of them have come in the last 2 months.
Enjoy your break and come back to success mate.
@chris-osborne said in From Goals To Match Points:@darri Thanks Darri, the days are going to be long so probably. Although will be back working from home the folloing week
My football not that there is much going on with an international break is mainly set and forgets so that should be ok. The tennis is in California so will be late night I'll leave that to the weekend most likely.
The break will probably do me good anyway
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@matt-wood said in From Goals To Match Points:
Well done pulling the 5pts down on footy back.
I can honestly say that focusing on my mistakes has made a huge difference to my trading. We all want to fill our bucket up but we spend so much time and effort looking at ways to pour more in at the top and we don't spend long enough looking at plugging the holes in the bottom.
Plugging my holes has meant my bucket is filling up with no more effort put into pouring in at the top.
Hope that made sense It does in my head at leastHopefully your car won't protest too much next week
Thatβs class regarding the bucket, think I will steal that and use it again.
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Well done pulling the 5pts down on footy back.
I can honestly say that focusing on my mistakes has made a huge difference to my trading. We all want to fill our bucket up but we spend so much time and effort looking at ways to pour more in at the top and we don't spend long enough looking at plugging the holes in the bottom.
Plugging my holes has meant my bucket is filling up with no more effort put into pouring in at the top.
Hope that made sense It does in my head at leastHopefully your car won't protest too much next week
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@darri Thanks Darri, the days are going to be long so probably. Although will be back working from home the folloing week
My football not that there is much going on with an international break is mainly set and forgets so that should be ok. The tennis is in California so will be late night I'll leave that to the weekend most likely.
The break will probably do me good anyway
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@chris-osborne rate the transparency here mate, now use it as a reference point for this time next month. What were the mistakes and what did i do this month to correct it. Iv said this on matts post too, if your strategy is good, then all you need to do is focus on cutting out the mistakes/fomo/overtrading. The profit should take care of itself. I wonder will trading be affected by your return to normal work?
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After a good August, I found September to be a bit of a struggle for one reason and another.
Football I ended up break even although at one stage I was around 5 pts down in limited opportunities. However, I'm starting to see Winter League matches on filters so hopefully we should be full steam ahead after the forthcoming international break.
Tennis I need to look at because I've been struggling for some time probably since Wimbledon as I podted in the tennis thread. Ended up with a 10pt loss.
Full transparency here and "borrowing" from @Matt-Wood, 5pts we're due to definite mistakes and letting trades run too long where I end up taking a full loss instead of removing liability or exiting at a stop loss point.
There aren't many tournaments left this year although a big one starting in Indian Wells, California next Wednesday.
I need to look at tennis in more detail and decide what I want to do. I'm leaning towards 1st set trading at the minute but not got a clear view on anything currently.
As with alot of people I've been working from home since March 2020, which is a situation which will continue with mixing days in the office. However, I have to go in all next week for a worldwide "Lean week". which I'm looking forward to in some ways be a change from the normal everyday grind. Feels like I'm starting a new job. The car won't know whats going on travelling from Leicester to Rugby everyday.
Its good to see the successes other people are having, Planning on bouncing back in October.
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@chris-osborne Record those trades with the bad habit occurrence, although I am sure you already do. This is what really helped me stamp out my mistakes, BIG horrible neon orange highlight on my lovely tidy spreadsheet
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Slipped back into a bad habit a couple of times this week in letting trades getting away from me when should have exited earlier than I did.
Only happened a couple of times and all part of the learning process,
Aside from that as with Wombledon, found the US Open a difficult tournament to trade, pivotted from laying first set winner which wasn't really getting me anywhere to backing a favourite who went behind in the first set.
Will analyse the Grand Slams in detail before the Aussie Open in January.
Enjoyed the break from football whilst International break going on but will be good to get back to it at the weekend. Winter Leagues unlikely to start hitting filters until after the next international break
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As I posted
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@darri said in From Goals To Match Points:
@chris-osborne Fantastic bud! Enjoy seeing the progression people make and how they do it. Key thing from this is you saying how you are keeping it simple, its hard to grasp and tell people this because trading is like a jungle filled with angles/strats/fomo etc, but almost everyone iv seen who went on to do well in trading has hit this lightbulb moment. Something you can trade easily again and again and consistently is all you need. Keep this up!
Thanks @Darri wouldn't have made that realisation or progress without posts from the likes of yourself and the other pro's on here. I may not comment much on your blog but I read all your posts and alot of it resonates with me and where I want to get to
If you'd told me a year or even six months ago that I would be stripping back my trading as much as I have I wouldn't have believed you.
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@chris-osborne Fantastic bud! Enjoy seeing the progression people make and how they do it. Key thing from this is you saying how you are keeping it simple, its hard to grasp and tell people this because trading is like a jungle filled with angles/strats/fomo etc, but almost everyone iv seen who went on to do well in trading has hit this lightbulb moment. Something you can trade easily again and again and consistently is all you need. Keep this up!
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Great work Chris, really good to see mate. Have a cracking US Open. Like your good self Iβll be looking at the WTA hereβs to a successful fortnight.
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@matt-wood itβs split 50/50 between a ratings based back the favourite if drawing at ht and a set and forget u1.5 strategy. The u1.5 goal strategy also has high shg strike rate.
One thing I have been doing though is only consider leagues with a high strike rate such as eliteserien, even if games qualify or are on the filter I wonβt place until the leagues are performing. Iβm still tracking all games though.
Iβll go public if the strategies continue to do well when the winter leagues are well established.
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@chris-osborne Excellent month here Chris 12.71pts of profit is very nice
Do you just do SHG trades on the footy?
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With the completion of this weekends football before there is a dreaded International break and with the US Open Tennis starting tomorrow, going to call it a month and start September a couple of days early. Coinciding with the start of the US Open which will be my main focus for the next couple of weeks.
Very good month, 12.71 pts profit mainly focussed on football with a bit of tennis although that will change round in September with the US Open starting tomorrow
The one thing I've finally got into my thick head is to keep things simple whatever sport I'm trading: -
Most if not all of the football profit came from the Norway Eliteserien which really is the gift that keeps on giving for me anyway.
For the first week of the US Open, will mainly be focussing on the WTA side of the tournament. For me there's too much going on to focus on both the ATP and WTA initially. Although I can't see past Barty, there are the usual high number of potential upsets judging from the draw.
The bottom half of the draw plays tomorrow which fatures the likes of Osaka and Sabalenka amongst others.
Will be using tomorrow's bank holiday to research the matches but my main focus will be PRojected Hold in the first set and Lay 1st Set Winner if my perceived underdog wins the first set. Will also look at known pressure points and obvious trading scenarios - serving for set/match at 5-4, double break up and Set and break up for example.
The overall message is to keep things simple not just with Tennis but football and anything else I choose to trade going forward
One thing I am looking forward to when they come out is the Horse Racing Stats. The initial teasers look impressive. You could write what I know about horse racing on the back of a folded stamp but if I can find a data angle that gives me something I can use as set and forget and not worry about Inplay trading then it may be something I add into my trading.
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For work reasons been a very quiet week for me this week hardly any trading nothing at all in tennis although got a few summer league football matches to trade today.
Dreaded international break after this weekends games which for me coincides nicely with the US Open tennis starting on Monday which as its a bank holiday should be able to trade properly. I'm then off work week after next.
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@chris-osborne Itβs just a suggestion but it works for me. If your sheets have the match IDs it can just pull the stats from the main sheet so no extra updating either