Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

Today was going to be a losing day anyway after Fortuna have forced me to look at the odds limits for 0-1 again but then it was made doubly worse by not acting upon a pattern I had spotted developing a while back. It's not the most logical one which is what has stopped me and if I think my discipline is A+ now well losing that game putting me into a losing position for the day probably influenced me negatively to take something I wasn't 100% sure on.

Month has now gone from it's ok to being in the red. Still a little way to go but it's another disappointment as we head into a new year.

I'll update fully later.

[Richard Latimer]

@martin thanks Martin

[Martin]

@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £184.41 - Current Bank £220.78 (+£6.57 for Nov):

2/2 again tonight.
+£5.70

nice one!

[Richard Latimer]

[Richard Latimer]

2/2 again tonight.
+£5.70

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £184.41 - Current Bank £220.78 (+£6.57 for Nov):

Not EPL game. Tracking only there.

[Richard Latimer]

[Richard Latimer]

I've laid down a few rules for myself which I think will help when dealing with things that haven't come up enough so far:

It won't stop all the losses on these but by and large the losses have come from the extreme numbers rather than those just a little higher or lower than most.

[Richard Latimer]

As much as I love to update the winning days then I absolutely need to update the losing ones. Missed pen in Young Boys but that's no excuse. It came before 60mins and I won't blame luck.

Typical that it was what I would deem an outlier but if I leave them they win and if I don't they lose so I must remain consistent and plough through this particular issue which will iron itself out over time. Until then there will be bumps but I will still profit of that I'm very confident.

Well over 1K selections on my selected leagues and selected criteria now so the bones of it are in place.

The other match was Gladbach with a 1-1 HT.

1/2
-£14.87
Bank reduces to £244.79

[Richard Latimer]

[Richard Latimer]

[Richard Latimer]

2/2 and win in Anderlecht that I didn't quite get to. Fell outside of the range for home SHG scored ave and wasn't sure if I was even going to enter anyway as Anderlecht hadn't been flying in the game from what I could see.

+£5.60
Bank £259.66

New stakes to be calculated for tomorrow......and.......

I've finally reached 1 whole years data. Not a single day has been missed that I'm aware of although some leagues I didn't start collecting immediately and much of the Sat 3pm stuff was missing from last season.

[Richard Latimer]

A few potentials for tomorrow:

[Richard Latimer]

Just the one today. Winner in Roma.

1/1
+£2.80
Bank £254.06
Stakes same

[Richard Latimer]

[Richard Latimer]

I've spent a fair old while this afternoon looking at odds for different countries as many of the ones that don't happen as much or where I would like a little more data are much better in terms of price.

There's a real feeling that the balance is quite right at the moment having started off way too loose and perhaps tigtened up too much on the leagues.

Where my data shows enough to suggest that the league will remain at least 1pt ahead in profit should it lose I'm going to play it. This opens out Eng League One amongst a few others.

The outliers are becoming far too much of a common occurrence to simply let them go so unless the overall goals is 4+ or home ave 2.7(home sh ave the top quaifying end of each scoreline) I'm going to start playing them.

Not only that but when it falls out of the known range and there is no negative data either then this is where I'll try and get on for a better price around 60th minute. These truly are outliers as the criteria hasn't moved alot in quite some time.

[Richard Latimer]

A quick midway through the month update. Total investment in this particular project is now £199.41 since start of Aug.

Bank £251.26

Profit £51.85.

In 4.5 months it's not great but at least I can see it is going up.

It's also around £15 up for Dec so far. Again not great but at least it's green and not red.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £184.41 - Current Bank £220.78 (+£6.57 for Nov):

In terms of what I said about a years data, tomorrow there is only 1 potential for me in a proven league. After that it will have been 1 whole year.

I will maintain what I'm doing with the leagues. Until they're proven they are purely for tracking. Also when data falls outside of the range on my list of criteria I will only track this even if no losses have been recorded at these data points.

Outliers are too many, will take too long to clear completely and need to be brought back in (maybe with the excaption of a couple of big numbers!).

I believe many people would view a years data as enough to be making some strong and confident decisions. I will also have a minimum of 998 trades by then in proven leagues or those doing well but with not enough data yet.

Actually it's 2 more days before I have 1 yr of data. Would be great if I could hit 1k of trades by then.

[Richard Latimer]

In terms of what I said about a years data, tomorrow there is only 1 potential for me in a proven league. After that it will have been 1 whole year.

I will maintain what I'm doing with the leagues. Until they're proven they are purely for tracking. Also when data falls outside of the range on my list of criteria I will only track this even if no losses have been recorded at these data points.

Outliers are too many, will take too long to clear completely and need to be brought back in (maybe with the exception of a couple of big numbers!).

I believe many people would view a years data as enough to be making some strong and confident decisions. I will also have a minimum of 998 trades by then in proven leagues or those doing well but with not enough data yet.

[Richard Latimer]

And here we go again!

First of all, I'll just say that i'm coming up to a years data and it may be time to try and find a better balance with these outliers as like I've said in the past, they are accounting for a lot of selections still.

My record today was 4/5 and a small loss of just under 2pts. The overall system record for today is 9/10.

Hamburger I got
Karlsruher was not just an outlier but was outside a current range in the home odds for the 2-1 scoreline. It would now be considered an outlier.
Oldenburg was on a league I wanted more data from. I now consider there to be enough data to proceed.
Verona I got
Servette an outlier
Besiktas I got
Sparta Prague I got
Gent an unlikely loser
Guabira an outlier (missed the goal by fractions)
Club Brugge an outlier

So I hit half of the now qualifiers
had 3 outliers that didn't match in time

Perhaps moving forward I may look to take the outliers as I'm not sure there's too much reason not to.

I could try for a 60th minute entry on anything that falls outside of the given ranges without falling into a range with proven losers.

I don't know, it's frustrating but the good thing is when the day is done my data is almost all green which means that sooner or later this is what I'll be seeing in practice.