Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Ok, good day again:
Someone said recently how things can be going great and then they can see something and try as they might they can't unsee it. When the genie is out of the bottle etc....
Well there was nothing I could do about yesterday unless I want to throw out every single loss (would make the data highly unreliable and unrealistic) but having looked again it's the 2nd loss @ 2-1 HT scoreline from only 6 selections in the Eerste. This would very much be a losing proposition.
It's not unreasonable to believe these statistics will correct themselves over time but I've benefitted by being cautious many times and when I ignore red flags I usually regret it.
Also, if a poorly performing league can be rescued by excluding certain scorelines then doesn't it stand to reason a league in good profit could potentially be improved using the same logic?!
Long story short, 2-1 in the Eerste is on the back burner until I have data to show it's profitable which in fairness means another 10 without loss.
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No revisions on todays loss. It was prime fodder and simply lost. It's statistics for you. Not bad luck just statisitics:
I took Villarreal when I realised the only 2 losses in Laliga were at 0-0 although going with my updated plan on outliers I may not do so in same circumstances. Home odds of 2.57 were just outside where I would want them to be.
Braga SHG is good for future as now 4 selections strong in Portuguese Top League. But no actual trade as yet. Will post up for Monday in a bit.
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I've been working through my sheet and made the decision to handle outliers in the same way as I'm now looking at leagues. I want 7 clear winning trades at the beginning or end of each stat/criteria. Hopefully this is the right balance between maximising output and protecting the bank against unknown quantities.
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One thing I've noticed in many leagues is it's not necessarily the league (sometimes it is) but quite possibly the HT score. This may all correct itself over the long term but I doubt it. For example France Ligue 1 with a draw at HT has been an incredibly poor proposition.
So with that in mind as I start getting both more positive and negative results in certain leagues I'm also looking for patterns on where the losses are coming from. A league ruled out seeing another loss can actually be a big positive.
I'm also not going for a huge amount of selections in all leagues now as many of the bigger ones have plenty and a few of the others are moving along nicely. What I figure is, as long as the next loss will still see the league in profit I'll take it (clearly this wouldn't be the case with for example 100 selections and a marginal profit on that league - I'm talking only about leagues with a small amount of data).
The reason I bring all this up is after seeing Villarreal drawing 1-1 @ HT and knowing the overall picture in Laliga was substandard, I took a look at the breakdown. Only 2 losses had come at 0-0 with Real Madrid at home. I had 7 positive results other than this and felt confident enough to lay under 2.5 at what was some very nice odds.
Weekend was a bust but this was a positive.
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Sunday Fare:
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-£4.11 today and bank reduces to £247.88
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And so these 3 remain on the charts:
If it looks like I'm just deleting any losers that would be wrong. I am however systematically going through the data after each day and if it looks like anything can be tweaked as we go then that is what is happening. With this it was easy as already explained. When dealing with outliers there is always the possibility of putting through an amendment before the next day and that's all that has happened here.
Accrington today is in a small odds range where I wouldn't be repeating the trade until such time as the data corrects itself if that even happens. I have my theories why it won't but we'll see.
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Almost went to plan today but small hiccup meant ave win turned into small loss. Accrington drawing 1-1 @ HT with home odds right on the edge but odds are the one thing it's hard to rule out outliers on because they change so much between different scorelines.
Before today the smalll odds range of 2.64-2.73 for a 1-1 was a no go. Accrington was 2.81 but inbetween 2.73 and 2.81 there was only another 3 games meaning that now the range of 2.64-2.81 is to be avoided.
My only explanation for this is 2 teams of comparable strength. I won't run from the data. I'll follow it and if it leads back here in the end so be it. It's trial and error to an extent but there's far less of it than there used to be.
So for me 3/4 and small loss.
Corrected data 3/3
Just updating everything now and will post up full summary in a bit.
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A trickle of stuff coming in tomorrow but not much in comparison to normal weekends:
Taken Mainz and Gaziantepspor away as well due their being quite heavy outliers.
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Nothing again
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Tomorrow:
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No qualifiers
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In full with criteria:
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@chris-osborne said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £199.41 - Current Bank £244.17 (+£8.39 for Dec):
@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £199.41 - Current Bank £244.17 (+£8.39 for Dec):
@dave-hayes said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £199.41 - Current Bank £244.17 (+£8.39 for Dec):
@richard-latimer Great choice of games Richard, I have those on my own list
I didn't choose them. They were chosen by the matrix haha
Do we need to start calling you Neo or Keane?
Only when I achieve my goals then I'll be happy to go by the moniker of Neo. You could just call me the chosen one haha!
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@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £199.41 - Current Bank £244.17 (+£8.39 for Dec):
@dave-hayes said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £199.41 - Current Bank £244.17 (+£8.39 for Dec):
@richard-latimer Great choice of games Richard, I have those on my own list
I didn't choose them. They were chosen by the matrix haha
Do we need to start calling you Neo or Keane?
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@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £199.41 - Current Bank £244.17 (+£8.39 for Dec):
@dave-hayes said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £199.41 - Current Bank £244.17 (+£8.39 for Dec):
@richard-latimer Great choice of games Richard, I have those on my own list
I didn't choose them. They were chosen by the matrix haha
Be careful about getting sucked into the Matrix, didn't end so well for Neo, Morpheus etc
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@dave-hayes said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £199.41 - Current Bank £244.17 (+£8.39 for Dec):
@richard-latimer Great choice of games Richard, I have those on my own list
I didn't choose them. They were chosen by the matrix haha
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@richard-latimer Great choice of games Richard, I have those on my own list
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I feel free. Something in the force is somehow lighter and more cheery. Despite it being a massive setback and hurting my end goal I could have a losing month and potentially not have to explain myself in War & Peace style essays!
As I get closer to my goal I'm going to have to start talking about boring things such as how do I get letting agents to recognise trading income in afforability checks and if they won't what great ideas can people come up with to legitmise my cash in the immediate haha!!
However, this is all jumping the gun and until it's relevant it's not in the slightest bit relevant!
Tomorrow:
