Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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I tell a lie. Streak was 37 again.
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The streak is over but it got to 38 before the next loss. I can live with that!
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What I forgot to report yesterday is that after a sticky spell lays are currently on a 31 long unbeaten streak. This is the 2nd largest since I started collecting data which definitely gives hope to the idea that what happened initially was no fluke.
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Done. Off to bed.
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Finally finished totalling up today.
Lays good
Backs small loss
Over 2.5 no good
Over 1.5 good and badNow to crack on with Saturday's!
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That's all the lays in now. Another sweep following what looked like a bad tempered game in Den Bosch.
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Odds Range Req S/R Max Liability
up to 3.5 75.00% 4.00%
3.55 - 7.4 87.50% 5.70%
7.6 - 11.0 92.31% 6.66%
11.5 - 15.0 94.12% 8.00%
15.5 - 20.0 95.45% 10.00%
21.0 - 25.0 96.30% 10.00%These are the figures I've been working on
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My calculations above are out of whack. I've puzzled over what various percentages should be for ages trying to work it back from a max liability and and it's not easy.
I think a better way to do it may be to look at each level of odds (for example 3.55-7.40) on it's own merit. For example, to make the odds of 7.40 work I will need 7 wins for every loss as a minimum. This is 87.50%. 85% gives longest expected losing streak of 4 while 90% gives that as 3. Combine the two and I can expect that to be 3.5.
Suggestion on bet size is that you should take longest likely losing streak x5. In this instance that's 17.50.
Divide the bank into 17.5 points for these odds and each point is your max liability.
To find do 100/17.5 which makes 5.71. Max liability 5.7%. From there it should be quite easy to ascertain the back stake. If you are working on a £100.00 bank this would be £0.89.
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A whole load of everything tomorrow. Backs/Lays/Overs.
In terms of consistency I'm probably more confident on the lays than anything else at the moment. Man of these are far too high odds to be laying level stakes so I've worked out a sort of maria staking system for them.
up to 3.50 - 1pt
3.55 - 7.40 - 0.6pt
7.60 - 11.00 - 0.4pt
11.50 - 15.00 - 0.3pt
16.00 - 20.00 - 0.24pt
21.00 - 25.00 - 0.21ptI think it would be up to the individual to define what % their own pt should be but for me that's about 2.85%
I've calculated that with a 90% s/r my highest liability should be 6.66%. For anything over 11.00 I need higher than this anyway and the higher odds the higher s/r I expect. That being said I've calculated a max 10% liability where I expect around a 95% s/r.
I've done all this from looking at these linked pages:
http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/learning-centre/science-calculating-winning-losing-streaks/
https://www.thepunterspal.com/archives/875From the tables shown it should be possible to calculate likely winning/losing streaks and as such the amount to bet in accordance with bank.
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1 selection, 1 win. On to tomorrow.
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Todays over 2.5 could only manage 2 goals but conversely this was the first game in the over 1.5's all of which won.
Only one away game in Egypt tomorrow to back and these have been no great shakes!
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1 selection of over 2.5 which failed to hit but 1 back (also a lay) which hit at fairly nice odds.
In addition the 2x over 1.5 on season long data both hit. Updating sheet for tomorrow now.
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For over 2.5's that should have read over 60% s/r
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Only back didn't reach 1.2 so that's a no go. Away team fell under 25.00 to lay though and so I collected data there for what was an easy 5-0 win.
2x Over 2.5's both won so things definitely picking up there again. Back over 50% s/r and with a yield of 7.35%.
4x Over 1.5 on season long data also won. A large amount of selections (75 in 6 days) means I'd desperately like to cut it down a bit but I'm really going to try and collect as much data as possible with these before I do anything else. Still at around 81% with over 4% yield even on the raw data and with odds going from 1.08 to over 1.5.
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Backs and lays went ok but nothing more. Over 2.5 did quite well and over 1.5 using more or less same data swept to put that back in the black.
Other over 1.5's didn't do so well and after 25 selections pretty much break even. These need to be streamlined hugely in any case but right now I'm just not quite sure where to do that.
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Good start on the overs in Spain this morning. Fingers crossed for another goal in each.
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A very up and down day on everything other than the lays yesterday. Todays stuff starts now. Sheet updated.
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Sheet updated with all tomorrow's selections.
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Very good day overall:
Back & Be Damned - 3 Home Selections all winning @ HT and traded for a decent green ( in one case traded @ 1.01. 1 away game drawing @ HT which went on to 2-5.
Lay The Lot - The same 3 home selections all winning @ HT. Hertha added to lay (excluded from backs) on the basis their record far superior to Mainz but they've still won only 36% of home games. That was a loss so if sticking to the original 3 homes it was a winning day, if not then a slight loss.
Over 2.5 - Pretty much break even (very slight green) for a 3-2 (60%) win ratio.
Over 1.5 using same selections (but excluding Sittard due to overall % score being only 280 across necessary criteria) 4-0 sweep.
Long Term 'Over'view - Over 1.5 using 20 game current season data.- 12 wins, 1 loss.
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Result. 2 winning lays and I no longer feel like I'm dying from Salmonella!
