Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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1 selection, 1 win. On to tomorrow.
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Todays over 2.5 could only manage 2 goals but conversely this was the first game in the over 1.5's all of which won.
Only one away game in Egypt tomorrow to back and these have been no great shakes!
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1 selection of over 2.5 which failed to hit but 1 back (also a lay) which hit at fairly nice odds.
In addition the 2x over 1.5 on season long data both hit. Updating sheet for tomorrow now.
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For over 2.5's that should have read over 60% s/r
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Only back didn't reach 1.2 so that's a no go. Away team fell under 25.00 to lay though and so I collected data there for what was an easy 5-0 win.
2x Over 2.5's both won so things definitely picking up there again. Back over 50% s/r and with a yield of 7.35%.
4x Over 1.5 on season long data also won. A large amount of selections (75 in 6 days) means I'd desperately like to cut it down a bit but I'm really going to try and collect as much data as possible with these before I do anything else. Still at around 81% with over 4% yield even on the raw data and with odds going from 1.08 to over 1.5.
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Backs and lays went ok but nothing more. Over 2.5 did quite well and over 1.5 using more or less same data swept to put that back in the black.
Other over 1.5's didn't do so well and after 25 selections pretty much break even. These need to be streamlined hugely in any case but right now I'm just not quite sure where to do that.
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Good start on the overs in Spain this morning. Fingers crossed for another goal in each.
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A very up and down day on everything other than the lays yesterday. Todays stuff starts now. Sheet updated.
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Sheet updated with all tomorrow's selections.
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Very good day overall:
Back & Be Damned - 3 Home Selections all winning @ HT and traded for a decent green ( in one case traded @ 1.01. 1 away game drawing @ HT which went on to 2-5.
Lay The Lot - The same 3 home selections all winning @ HT. Hertha added to lay (excluded from backs) on the basis their record far superior to Mainz but they've still won only 36% of home games. That was a loss so if sticking to the original 3 homes it was a winning day, if not then a slight loss.
Over 2.5 - Pretty much break even (very slight green) for a 3-2 (60%) win ratio.
Over 1.5 using same selections (but excluding Sittard due to overall % score being only 280 across necessary criteria) 4-0 sweep.
Long Term 'Over'view - Over 1.5 using 20 game current season data.- 12 wins, 1 loss.
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Result. 2 winning lays and I no longer feel like I'm dying from Salmonella!
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A bout of chicken induced food poisoning has stopped me posting anything until now.Finally managed to update the sheet. A few overnight qualifiers which were too late even for me so I've not even looked at those.
Nothing to stop set and forget on those so collected data for overs still.
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Sheet updated with tomorrow's
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Also decent for laying.
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Another decent today for backing and over 2.5 although over 1.5 not so great.
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Got one game to look at tomorrow afternoon then everything come at 19:45. Sheet updated as per.
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In a break from what I have been doing I'm forcing myself to record every single real (bad) trade/bet I make.
The further I go into the red the more I'll realise things aren't working and unlike usual I will have some concrete figures on what I've been losing. As I hopefully start to turn things around and the box goes from red to green then I'll be able to see this nice and clear rather than making guesses and assumptions on what the current state of play is.
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Aint that typical. Not a duff game among them today!
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When the fun stops stop they say.....
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The god of statistics is having his fun today. Sick and twisted sense of humour that's for sure.
