Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

John Folan

@tom-horridge said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

I am still not convinced. Regression to the mean is a very powerful mathematical concept and I feel you have insufficient data to make the decisions you are making. Remember the presence of a correlation is not sufficient to infer the presence of a causal relationship. Leagues are not homogeneous, look at the Premiership, Klopp, Mourinho and Pep are completely different characters with differing philosophies.

It still remains however that your results for the first 250 games were truly amazing. If you had been using a well constructed infinite bank, based your investments on perceived value and used the full range of odds available in Oddschecker or Bookiesindex you would be looking at profits well in excess of 1000 pounds.

So questions to be asked.

Did you change anything at the end of March on your selection process?
Last month(roughly) of the season had an effect?
Anyway to get stats for this from the software?

These look as Tom said, the business. I take it over 1.5 without trading out seems to be the strategy as I know you have had a few on the go over a time period.

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I am still not convinced. Regression to the mean is a very powerful mathematical concept and I feel you have insufficient data to make the decisions you are making. Remember the presence of a correlation is not sufficient to infer the presence of a causal relationship. Leagues are not homogeneous, look at the Premiership, Klopp, Mourinho and Pep are completely different characters with differing philosophies.

It still remains however that your results for the first 250 games were truly amazing. If you had been using a well constructed infinite bank, based your investments on perceived value and used the full range of odds available in Oddschecker or Bookiesindex you would be looking at profits well in excess of 1000 pounds.

Richard Latimer

Barcelona didn't go inplay I noticed but I'd already got on by that point. No idea why as Betfair had a live stream of the game ffs!!

Richard Latimer

Paraguay and Ecuador once more this evening. Those 2 leagues combined allow for over 70pts on their own.

Richard Latimer

Nothing for Monday but anyone eagle eyed enough to spot it may have noticed I'm looking into first half goals again.

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@tom-horridge said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

Your original model is firmly based in statistics and performs well. Why add a filter that excludes some leagues based on your personal opinion which is subjective? Is there not a way of assessing whether a league should be excluded based on data in the statistics package?

Not an opinion. I'm following the numbers. If I'd carried on in Bundesliga 2 for example I would have lost loads even at small stakes!

I'm trying not to look for reasons on what has been happening as I normally do because evidently up until now they have just been theories that ultimately didn't hold true.

However,if I were to give one reason for why some leagues are failing badly and others are flying it would be this.

Leagues and teams returning to their mean. Superettan maybe and Bundesliga 2 maybe the data showing loads of goals is just a matter of time before returning to the mean.

Other than being smaller numbers I would like to think there is a reason why Paraguay is taking off into orbit and Superettan is in a large black hole of crap! Otherwise the whole thing is doomed to fail.

You say why exclude leagues, I'm not sure you have studied the sheets all that well. My main sheet including all leagues which I continue to update and collect is barely in profit and hasn't gone up properly in yonks! The filtered sheet where I'm excluding leagues as they approach/reach/breach a deficit of 20pts on the otherhand is doing very well.

Should some leagues pick right back up then I certainly won't be stupid enough to exclude them based on nothing more than an opinion.

Richard Latimer

@tom-horridge said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

Your original model is firmly based in statistics and performs well. Why add a filter that excludes some leagues based on your personal opinion which is subjective? Is there not a way of assessing whether a league should be excluded based on data in the statistics package?

Not an opinion. I'm following the numbers. If I'd carried on in Bundesliga 2 for example I would have lost loads even at small stakes!

Richard Latimer

Lovely high odds winner in Paraguay

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Your original model is firmly based in statistics and performs well. Why add a filter that excludes some leagues based on your personal opinion which is subjective? Is there not a way of assessing whether a league should be excluded based on data in the statistics package?

Richard Latimer

Wasn't expecting another loss in the states. Despite being a very open league results have only been average there and odds often low or too low to get on.

Richard Latimer

@tom-horridge said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

I only joined 10 days ago and have been impressed by your topic. To be successful in the over 1.5 market you need to beat the rate indicated by the odds value by 10% consistently.

You quote the average odds as 1.3 which indicates a win rate of 76.9% so to be successful you need a win rate of 84.6%. Your current rate is 79.9%.

For the first 250 investments up to 29th March you had a win rate of 83.6% leading to a profit of over 200 pounds.

You have obviously been changing the system and it maybe worth checking if you made a change around the end of March that has caused you a problen?

Thanks Tom. It's not so much anything per se that has caused me a problem other than some leagues being way too inconsistent. You only find this out after the fact. My filtered leagues which are being streamlined as I go, shows almost an 85% s/r.

Richard Latimer

Let down in Bolivia but still a small profit. Quite a bit coming up in MLS shortly.

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I only joined 10 days ago and have been impressed by your topic. To be successful in the over 1.5 market you need to beat the rate indicated by the odds value by 10% consistently.

You quote the average odds as 1.3 which indicates a win rate of 76.9% so to be successful you need a win rate of 84.6%. Your current rate is 79.9%.

For the first 250 investments up to 29th March you had a win rate of 83.6% leading to a profit of over 200 pounds.

You have obviously been changing the system and it maybe worth checking if you made a change around the end of March that has caused you a problen?

Richard Latimer

Sheet updated. Nothing until half 12 in China.

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

Sheet has been updated for a while but Paraguay game starting in just under an hour.

Win streak in Paraguay had to come to an end sooner or later.

Richard Latimer

Sheet has been updated for a while but Paraguay game starting in just under an hour.

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@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

Good for the system but no good for my wallet. Betfair had the Chinese game down as a 13:35 start. Should have double checked as 12:35 is normal time. Anyway, long and short I missed it haha!

Betfair doing this a lot recently,I’ve been caught out myself.

Richard Latimer

Good for the system but no good for my wallet. Betfair had the Chinese game down as a 13:35 start. Should have double checked as 12:35 is normal time. Anyway, long and short I missed it haha!

Richard Latimer

Was just the one today. 1 selection, 1 win. 1 tomorrow in China. Updating now.

Richard Latimer

@ryan-carruthers said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@richard-latimer This is ticking along nicely!!

Thanks @Ryan-Carruthers. Already stuck with it far longer than I've ever stuck with any system/strategy until now. Will be a real milestone when I hit 1,000 bets.

Trick will be to turn profit from the sheet into real life profit and I must be getting closer.