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Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved Football Trading
5.5k Posts 81 Posters 436.5k Views
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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    replied to Richard Latimer on last edited by
    #4801

    @richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

    @tom-horridge said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

    Your original model is firmly based in statistics and performs well. Why add a filter that excludes some leagues based on your personal opinion which is subjective? Is there not a way of assessing whether a league should be excluded based on data in the statistics package?

    Not an opinion. I'm following the numbers. If I'd carried on in Bundesliga 2 for example I would have lost loads even at small stakes!

    I'm trying not to look for reasons on what has been happening as I normally do because evidently up until now they have just been theories that ultimately didn't hold true.

    However,if I were to give one reason for why some leagues are failing badly and others are flying it would be this.

    Leagues and teams returning to their mean. Superettan maybe and Bundesliga 2 maybe the data showing loads of goals is just a matter of time before returning to the mean.

    Other than being smaller numbers I would like to think there is a reason why Paraguay is taking off into orbit and Superettan is in a large black hole of crap! Otherwise the whole thing is doomed to fail.

    You say why exclude leagues, I'm not sure you have studied the sheets all that well. My main sheet including all leagues which I continue to update and collect is barely in profit and hasn't gone up properly in yonks! The filtered sheet where I'm excluding leagues as they approach/reach/breach a deficit of 20pts on the otherhand is doing very well.

    Should some leagues pick right back up then I certainly won't be stupid enough to exclude them based on nothing more than an opinion.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    replied to A Former User on last edited by
    #4802

    @tom-horridge said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

    Your original model is firmly based in statistics and performs well. Why add a filter that excludes some leagues based on your personal opinion which is subjective? Is there not a way of assessing whether a league should be excluded based on data in the statistics package?

    Not an opinion. I'm following the numbers. If I'd carried on in Bundesliga 2 for example I would have lost loads even at small stakes!

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    Richard LatimerR 1 Reply Last reply
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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #4803

    Lovely high odds winner in Paraguay

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    wrote on last edited by
    #4804

    Your original model is firmly based in statistics and performs well. Why add a filter that excludes some leagues based on your personal opinion which is subjective? Is there not a way of assessing whether a league should be excluded based on data in the statistics package?

    Richard LatimerR 1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #4805

    Wasn't expecting another loss in the states. Despite being a very open league results have only been average there and odds often low or too low to get on.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    replied to A Former User on last edited by
    #4806

    @tom-horridge said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

    I only joined 10 days ago and have been impressed by your topic. To be successful in the over 1.5 market you need to beat the rate indicated by the odds value by 10% consistently.

    You quote the average odds as 1.3 which indicates a win rate of 76.9% so to be successful you need a win rate of 84.6%. Your current rate is 79.9%.

    For the first 250 investments up to 29th March you had a win rate of 83.6% leading to a profit of over 200 pounds.

    You have obviously been changing the system and it maybe worth checking if you made a change around the end of March that has caused you a problen?

    Thanks Tom. It's not so much anything per se that has caused me a problem other than some leagues being way too inconsistent. You only find this out after the fact. My filtered leagues which are being streamlined as I go, shows almost an 85% s/r.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #4807

    Let down in Bolivia but still a small profit. Quite a bit coming up in MLS shortly.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    wrote on last edited by
    #4808

    I only joined 10 days ago and have been impressed by your topic. To be successful in the over 1.5 market you need to beat the rate indicated by the odds value by 10% consistently.

    You quote the average odds as 1.3 which indicates a win rate of 76.9% so to be successful you need a win rate of 84.6%. Your current rate is 79.9%.

    For the first 250 investments up to 29th March you had a win rate of 83.6% leading to a profit of over 200 pounds.

    You have obviously been changing the system and it maybe worth checking if you made a change around the end of March that has caused you a problen?

    Richard LatimerR 1 Reply Last reply
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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #4809

    Sheet updated. Nothing until half 12 in China.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    replied to Richard Latimer on last edited by
    #4810

    @richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

    Sheet has been updated for a while but Paraguay game starting in just under an hour.

    Win streak in Paraguay had to come to an end sooner or later.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #4811

    Sheet has been updated for a while but Paraguay game starting in just under an hour.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    Richard LatimerR 1 Reply Last reply
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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to Richard Latimer on last edited by
    #4812

    @richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

    Good for the system but no good for my wallet. Betfair had the Chinese game down as a 13:35 start. Should have double checked as 12:35 is normal time. Anyway, long and short I missed it haha!

    Betfair doing this a lot recently,I’ve been caught out myself.

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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #4813

    Good for the system but no good for my wallet. Betfair had the Chinese game down as a 13:35 start. Should have double checked as 12:35 is normal time. Anyway, long and short I missed it haha!

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    ? 1 Reply Last reply
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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #4814

    Was just the one today. 1 selection, 1 win. 1 tomorrow in China. Updating now.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    replied to Ryan on last edited by
    #4815

    @ryan-carruthers said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

    @richard-latimer This is ticking along nicely!!

    Thanks @Ryan-Carruthers. Already stuck with it far longer than I've ever stuck with any system/strategy until now. Will be a real milestone when I hit 1,000 bets.

    Trick will be to turn profit from the sheet into real life profit and I must be getting closer.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

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  • RyanR Offline
    RyanR Offline
    Ryan
    replied to Richard Latimer on last edited by
    #4816

    @richard-latimer This is ticking along nicely!!

    Founder of BTC - Pro Trader - Main Sports Tennis and Football

    Richard LatimerR 1 Reply Last reply
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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    replied to Richard Latimer on last edited by
    #4817

    @richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

    That's done again now. Next match in Finland @ 16:30

    Odds too low so just the win in Paraguay. Updating for tomorrow now.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    RyanR 1 Reply Last reply
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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #4818

    That's done again now. Next match in Finland @ 16:30

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    Richard LatimerR 1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #4819

    I did update the damn thing but can't see it anymore. Hope it was on there at least temporarily for the above game. Will have to do it again now.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    replied to Richard Latimer on last edited by
    #4820

    @richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

    Sheet updated. Game in Paraguay currently 0-0.

    Paraguay never fails to amaze. If you'd been watching that game no team was going to score in a million years!!

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    1 Reply Last reply
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