Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Connor Garland]

@richard-latimer I see. So would you set that at a certain value over the strike rate?

[John Folan]

@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £200.00 - Current Bank £262.45 (-£64.26 for Apr):

@connor-garland said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £200.00 - Current Bank £262.45 (-£64.26 for Apr):

@richard-latimer I'm new to the forum and trading in general and currently working on an over 1.5 strategy.
Just wondering the reasoning behind laying under 1.5 rather than backing over 1.5? Is there more value?

None. I just prefer to have set stake rather than set liability as it were. To back like that would mean constantly changing staked amounts to hit the same return on each win.

But you can manage your liability easier. Might be better for some newer traders wanting to protect their bank a bit maybe?

[Richard Latimer]

@connor-garland said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £200.00 - Current Bank £262.45 (-£64.26 for Apr):

@richard-latimer I'm new to the forum and trading in general and currently working on an over 1.5 strategy.
Just wondering the reasoning behind laying under 1.5 rather than backing over 1.5? Is there more value?

None. I just prefer to have set stake rather than set liability as it were. To back like that would mean constantly changing staked amounts to hit the same return on each win.

[Connor Garland]

@richard-latimer I'm new to the forum and trading in general and currently working on an over 1.5 strategy.
Just wondering the reasoning behind laying under 1.5 rather than backing over 1.5? Is there more value?

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £200.00 - Current Bank £262.45 (-£64.26 for Apr):

I won't clog up the football thread with my explanations anymore but one thing I have noticed that I'm looking into is while the H2H for Umraniyespor was 80% the last was in fact 2018. Looking back through data already collected for this to see if it's something easily excluded going forward.

Much as I hate missing a trick, it's better to find out early and have a reason for a poor patch.

This isn't the solution. There has been quite a few already where H2H doesn't start the last year. Just a bad day made worse by my playoff gamble! It has to go down as a gamble and a mistake!

[Richard Latimer]

I won't clog up the football thread with my explanations anymore but one thing I have noticed that I'm looking into is while the H2H for Umraniyespor was 80% the last was in fact 2018. Looking back through data already collected for this to see if it's something easily excluded going forward.

Much as I hate missing a trick, it's better to find out early and have a reason for a poor patch.

[Richard Latimer]

Lay under 1.5:

[Richard Latimer]

Looks like being 1/2 today and a small loss but Caracas odds small and I'm not ruling any leagues out at present considering the overall performance.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £200.00 - Current Bank £262.45 (-£64.26 for Apr):

Win in Bolivia. Now to tomorrow:

Lay under 1.5

Win

[Richard Latimer]

Lay under 1.5:

[Richard Latimer]

Win in Bolivia. Now to tomorrow:

Lay under 1.5

[Richard Latimer]

Lay under 1.5:

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £200.00 - Current Bank £262.45 (-£64.26 for Apr):

Lay under 1.5 Sandnes

3/3 again. Good day after a disappointing Sunday.

[Richard Latimer]

Lay under 1.5 Sandnes

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £200.00 - Current Bank £262.45 (-£64.26 for Apr):

Lay under 1.5 San Carlos (Costa Rica)

That one ended 3-2 so back in business.

Lay under 1.5 Melbourne City this morning

[Richard Latimer]

I may regret it but I seem to be finding there are far more likely reasons for a loss than whether a team has anything to play for. I think my stuff over the last year has been sometimes about challenging the stereotypes.

Higher averages not always better for example. The removal of high percentage h2h makes sense in this respect as does trading a game based on the data rather than anything subjective.

[Richard Latimer]

Lay under 1.5 San Carlos (Costa Rica)

[Richard Latimer]

@david-pickett said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £200.00 - Current Bank £262.45 (-£64.26 for Apr):

@richard-latimer I was lucky, because I was out for the day, I got on first thing this morning. Great odds on Antigua, and got on at 7 for Always Ready. Cheers for these selections, really appreciate it.

Just didn't find the liquidity on these games.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £200.00 - Current Bank £262.45 (-£64.26 for Apr):

Still Nublense to go

@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £200.00 - Current Bank £262.45 (-£64.26 for Apr):

Still Nublense to go

Nublense win means still heading strong despite today's setback. Taking out the 90% h2h which is break even over 30+ trades is the way to go for now. This actually opens the door for away averages to be lowered slightly. Lose 30 trades for no money and add 5 or 6 back for another 5 or 6 points.

I don't want to start messing with leagues at the moment as so far all leagues doing well and losses coming from across the park rather than a specific direction.

[David Pickett]

@richard-latimer I was lucky, because I was out for the day, I got on first thing this morning. Great odds on Antigua, and got on at 7 for Always Ready. Cheers for these selections, really appreciate it.