Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

These are todays games where I'm expecting an abundance of goals:

Calling this strategy BOGOF.

For all of these I will be laying under 3.5@ Kickoff and laying the under 1.5 goals H2. I will also be laying under 2.5 SHG in Bodo/Glimt game.

[Richard Latimer]

@martin-futter said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer don't think we should underestimate how much football is being played at the moment, teams really haven't had any time to prepare for the new season and the games are relentless. seems to have levelled the playing field somewhat, I mean the Premier League is wide open, La Liga looks anything but a two horse race this year and even the Serie A looks competitive!

Yeah I know. Have a feeling the ELO could come good again next year but it's a toss up at the moment.

[Martin]

@richard-latimer don't think we should underestimate how much football is being played at the moment, teams really haven't had any time to prepare for the new season and the games are relentless. seems to have levelled the playing field somewhat, I mean the Premier League is wide open, La Liga looks anything but a two horse race this year and even the Serie A looks competitive!

[Richard Latimer]

Now I'm not actively trading the ELO I'm finding it more and more of a chore to kkeep it updated. Nevertheless I have done so. Every now and then I see a few good results and wonder....should I be doing this still. Then Real Madrid and Atlanta throw up what they did yesterday and I think yeah....I made the right choice.

How do Real Madrid lose to Alaves at home only registering a consolation goal in the 86th minute???

[Richard Latimer]

Disappointing not get a single full win but then no full loss either. Finish the day small red.

[Richard Latimer]

A split in Atalanta for another small green.

Unfortunately PSG while still a split ended in loss due to odds on H2 over 1.5 and fact it was a H2 over 2.5 trade also. Very surprised that didn't come in with how it was lining up.

Currently 3-0 in Paraguay. 2SHG will set up the green day.

[Richard Latimer]

Apparently Halland missed a sitter at the end but again small green.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

50/50 split on Zilina thank you very much so small green there. Dortmund looking good at present.

Although I see VAR cancelled the 2nd. Early days though.

[Richard Latimer]

50/50 split on Zilina thank you very much so small green there. Dortmund looking good at present.

[Richard Latimer]

I'm back up to 100 selections and the s/r hasn't improved for the next lowest numbers so into room 101 they go. Home offense between 1.25-1.30 see you later!

[Richard Latimer]

More crazy goal games for tomorrow:

Will be laying under 3.5 @ Kickoff and under 1.5 SHG @ HT.

With PSG I will also lay under 2.5 SHG @ HT.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Couple for tomorrow. Odds high in Qatar but then just speaks to what crazy favourites they are I guess.

Both green. The over 2.5 H2 didn't come in on either but that's just a bonus.

[Richard Latimer]

For the 2nd week Bolivia are on the list also but I'm leaving the real early season games for anything I do now. Bolivia will be a very high scoring league though.

[Richard Latimer]

Couple for tomorrow. Odds high in Qatar but then just speaks to what crazy favourites they are I guess.

[Richard Latimer]

Nothing high enough to do tomorrow. Only to track so that I eventually have enough data to get rid haha!

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

I'm also keeping an eye on the away teams with high away offence but not tracking these YET. One in Singapore tomorrow.

This too would have been a winner on 2 entry points out of 3. Keeping an eye on these but not likely to start recording until I have the other seet in stone. It's worth noting the price to lay under 3.5 would have been around 1.75-1.8 and that was the losing entry point as Lion City scored 3 late goals to win 0-3.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Got one of the crazy scoring games coming up for tomorrow. Yes it's Kawasaki Frontale and they've already won at a canter but Gamba need points as well. Kawasaki won the last game well enough and they'd pretty much secured the title at that point too.

Odds for Over 3.5 likely to be around 2.4ish
Over 1.5 goals H2 around 1.8-1.9 and for 2 SHG it's probably going to be closer to 3.5.

Price steamed in big time but despite Kawasaki securing the title last week they were rampant again.

5-0 FT with 3SHG for a clean sweep on all 3 entry points. Yes I did do it myself. Despite it being very early days these just appear too good not to at the moment.

Lay prices were:

1.92
2.64
1.54

[Richard Latimer]

Thought I'd do a little more analysis on the top numbers although still very early days and anything could yet happen.

From the 35 top selections:

in 21 games both the over 3.5 and SHG over 1.5 came in leaving 14 that didn't.
Of those 14, 50% 7/14 saw at least one of the 2 come in and of course 7/14 were a full loss.

In the 22 games where I would currently want to be going over 2.5SHG I already know 11 won but in this 11 the other bets/trades won as well so when the 11 over 2.5SHG come in so far then so do the over 3.5 and over 1.5SHG.

Question is, will the 21 full wins be enough to counter the 7 full losses if this was to replicate long term. I believe it would. Most of the time a full loss would amount to may be 2-3 points. Maybe looking at -18pts. The full wins would provide 42pts less commission. The 7 half wins as it were would mostly break even but if we're being super conservative we could say half a point loss on each so 3.5pts lost.

This would still give around 20pts profit in such a scenario.

The over 2.5SHG at 50% s/r is a bonus and could easily provide another 3-5pts at a low liability.

[Richard Latimer]

I'm also keeping an eye on the away teams with high away offence but not tracking these YET. One in Singapore tomorrow.

[Richard Latimer]

Got one of the crazy scoring games coming up for tomorrow. Yes it's Kawasaki Frontale and they've already won at a canter but Gamba need points as well. Kawasaki won the last game well enough and they'd pretty much secured the title at that point too.

Odds for Over 3.5 likely to be around 2.4ish
Over 1.5 goals H2 around 1.8-1.9 and for 2 SHG it's probably going to be closer to 3.5.