Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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I'll post later but the games on my sheet already. 2pm kickoff in Serbia.
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I'll walk through everything in a bit but longstory short 5 green trades and 2 red. 1 of those reds was a 2-1 scoreline of which I'll be cautious for a bit having seen a few losers at 2-1 regardless of whether there's been 1 or 2 goals already in the half. Who can say whether 0-0 to 2-1 is bad, it hasn't happened yet since I've been collecting my data.
Make that 3 red trades as I forgot Randers was placed on sportsbook.
Either way those 3 red trades amounted to less than 3 pts and I took a pt on each winner.
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A word of caution, I have so far found that the average home score of 2.4 is ok when goals have already been scored in the half but when you are going from a blank slate not so good. The return to mean has been discussed before and it's all I can put it down to.
Other than this be careful of low FH averages when looking at FH goals and also ave book price to be sure the home side is at least a SLIGHT favourite (no more than 2.2). Also ave over H1/H2 book price.
In any case my guidelines for what is working so far are also posted. Over 150 good trades now so each individual strat/match scenario only has limited data but as a whole the picture is building.
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Sunday seems a way bigger day on the trading front when you take out the lower league English 3pm kickoffs. Quite alot of potential tomorrow which I'll post in the morning.
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Good day where it all seemed to go as planned.
2nd fhg in Paderborn. Layed @ 1.69
1-1 HT lcs in Gladbach.
Also what would have been a green trade in Poland as Legia went from 4-2 to 5-2. Didn't get involved as wasn't 100% on the scoreline.
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And guidelines of what I'm looking for:
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Saturdays fixtures of interest:
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2 trades today, 50/50 split but a goalless half forced me to look at the Mechelen game and specifically the 1x2 odds home odds. I have found with many of these that you need a home team who are at least under 3's to be optimise.
As with everything, it's a moving figure for the time being but just removing the higher odds on 1-1 LCS from HT with a 70 minute entry improves the initial figures massively. 6 selections less since Dec but a much healthier s/r.
I'll continue collecting data and small amount I have for various match scenarios will grow exponentially until it becomes meaningful. Until that point I couldn't see any point in including them without huge improvement.
In any case, closing on 430 matches on my sheet now so it's not nothing. Just many small datasets from an already quite large dataset.
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
Todays fixtures of interest:
And my guidelines of what I'll be looking for:
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Todays fixtures of interest:
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
16th minute goal in Uruguay. Will enter for another on 29 mins.
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
Really trying to open as many avenues as possible so trying to look at the best of the rest if you will in terms of other scores on my spreadsheet with early goals. Seeing that if you take what don't look especially promising scorelines initially and restrict that to an early goal within the first 10 minutes of 2nd half you may have another decent angle for late goals.
For some reason the scorelines of 2-1 and 3-1 really don't seem to lend themselves to much of a game after that.
This perhaps unfair in the 2-1/3-1 as there plenty that had further goals but what seems to be happening is quick goals or none. When more quick goals occur then I can sometimes put these on the 2 quick goals scored list and look for another goal that way.
The good news is that from over 400 selections now, in this manner, I could potentially find around 135-140 good trades in 2 months. Not a crazy amount but enough to not be looking elsewhere if all was to go to plan.
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Only Uruguay on the agenda for Thursday so I'll put it here:
My list of guidelines for various match scenarios:
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Really trying to open as many avenues as possible so trying to look at the best of the rest if you will in terms of other scores on my spreadsheet with early goals. Seeing that if you take what don't look especially promising scorelines initially and restrict that to an early goal within the first 10 minutes of 2nd half you may have another decent angle for late goals.
For some reason the scorelines of 2-1 and 3-1 really don't seem to lend themselves to much of a game after that.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
The only one that got close today would not have been within my odds parametres. Don't expect that in India but there you go. Odds on Goa overs too short.
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@richard-latimer True and thats the learning curve I am still climbing...
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Plus, as I've said I think the ultimate barometer of how a game is progressing are goals. A goal comes in the right window and another becomes very likely.
I'm hoping this will stop me having to exclude loads of different leagues which has never sat well with me.
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@mark-gorton said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer Because the odds were so bad but the game was manic and I could see a goal coming I laid the HT draw for 2.8...again minimum stakes just to check out my reading of the game. Not really following a plan but I want to be able to work the first half more but miss so much with regards to games that go against the plan...
It's why I prefer waiting until 30 mins when should be closer to evens. Will miss loads but if I can get a decent strike rate on that I will be laughing.
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@richard-latimer Because the odds were so bad but the game was manic and I could see a goal coming I laid the HT draw for 2.8...again minimum stakes just to check out my reading of the game. Not really following a plan but I want to be able to work the first half more but miss so much with regards to games that go against the plan...
