Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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@martin-futter said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
How's it all been going overall?
September has been arse with one thing or another but confident going into Oct. Really feel good about the new filter as some seriously low prices are winning.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
And the trial:
I'm not at all sure about how I feel on HIFK. While they've come back 4/5 times, SJK haven't relinquished the lead once when they've taken it. I'll probably leave that one and track as after Sagan Tosu today I did notice they'd only relinquished the lead once in 4 times (25%) and I was already looking at that as an outlier thinking well none of my other fixtures have been that low for away team comebacks.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
In the end today was just a break even exercise with a couple of losses with 2 moderate losses negating the 3 medium greens.
Not the Danish game. Haven't played enough games.
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In the end today was just a break even exercise with a couple of losses with 2 moderate losses negating the 3 medium greens.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
There are things to be worked on in my new filter but then it's still picking up as much green as the ELO's currently. Poli Iasi lay didn't work out do well.
Regardless, looks like it's going to be a winning day and I need a few of those at the moment.
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
Streamlined version of the trial which right now is doing better than the ELO's:
I've removed Azerbaijan but stay clear of Russia and Slovenia in particular as well. When there is more time in the week I will try and sift through all this data.
Oh yeah and I repeat, stay away from the red box.
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Streamlined version of the trial which right now is doing better than the ELO's:
I've removed Azerbaijan but stay clear of Russia and Slovenia in particular as well. When there is more time in the week I will try and sift through all this data.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Here's the streamlined version of ELO's. Feeling a little cursed at the moment but it'll go I'm sure:
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
And here again my live test of new filter similar in theory concentrating on comebacks:
As before stay away from the red boxes. Need to find a quicker way of doing this as taking me too long. These are finding some really nice low price lays though. 2 tonight in the 1.2's with Botafogo and Necaxa coming back even after a red.
@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
And here again my live test of new filter similar in theory concentrating on comebacks:
As before stay away from the red boxes. Need to find a quicker way of doing this as taking me too long. These are finding some really nice low price lays though. 2 tonight in the 1.2's with Botafogo and Necaxa coming back even after a red.
@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
And here again my live test of new filter similar in theory concentrating on comebacks:
As before stay away from the red boxes. Need to find a quicker way of doing this as taking me too long. These are finding some really nice low price lays though. 2 tonight in the 1.2's with Botafogo and Necaxa coming back even after a red.
One more thing, I'll be going through taking out matches with less than 6 games combined played in the season tomorrow. Need bed now though.
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And here again my live test of new filter similar in theory concentrating on comebacks:
As before stay away from the red boxes. Need to find a quicker way of doing this as taking me too long. These are finding some really nice low price lays though. 2 tonight in the 1.2's with Botafogo and Necaxa coming back even after a red.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Another less than satisfying day (thank you Molde) made better by a last minute goal in Marseille.
Sunday looks......well........crazy!
Not streamlined by taking out early season games or crappy leagues yet but just wanted to get them posted.
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It's taken a while to sort it all out but here is the revised list(s):
ELO's
New Trial (only those without red boxes on the right):
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Also Heerenveen not played enough games yet.
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
Big list for the trial but cut down considerably as I won't be doing any with a red box:
Time to keep check out for some leagues and what's remaining. Al Ahly have won already in Egypt. Scrap that one.
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Big list for the trial but cut down considerably as I won't be doing any with a red box:
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Nothing doing Friday. Mosy didn't qualify and the 2 that did lost at short odds.
Ive not gone through leagues yet. All I've done is to remove early early season games. Beware the Belgians!
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Fri:
Mix it up. Firstly there's my live trial which despite not tooooo many results yet, I am ever so confident about.
If any of these home teams fall behind I will look to lay the away with the possible exception of those Malaysian as no dat yet and league can be funny.
ELO's
Everyone knows the drill:
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So with Breidablik short odds lay losing @ 1.17 I finish on just under 1pt green and that at least stops the bleeding. Time to cauterise the wound tomorrow and let it scab over haha!
In short for the rest, a H2 goals win in Israel and Egypt adds to the data although no money on those as want to gather way more data before I dip my feet back in.
Lay of Jiangsu Suning, Kopavogur gave the green and lay of Breidablik took a tiny sample of that green back.
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Next, on the Costa Rican league which I had recently expressed doubts on. Saprissa down 0-1 after 5, 0-2 after 6......it just got worse and they were thrased 0-4 in the end. Firstly I'm glad to say it confirms my doubts as much as 2 heavy losses could in a short space of time. It would take a while to get those both back. Also, it was at 3am so lucky I was in bed haha!!
The next thing to say is that maybe Costa Rica isn't a total no go zone for laying winning teams. The strat I've just started live testing brought up Saprissa BUT I had already said it would be one best left alone as away team is just as likely to win from taking the lead as they are to concede.
In fact it's somethoing I was going to ask @Adam-Williams about. Whether a new rating could be added that measured how often a team is pulled back as opposed to giving a comeback rating. Could only improve the ELO I think.
