Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Many many potentials for tomorrow, not many will qualify and I hopefully won't spend too long worrying about it. Phone on, keep one eye on the score, check for potential FHG's pre-match, check for more potential goals FH depending on goal times and other parameters.
Once in the 2nd half, check each fixture briefly around 60mins to see if there's an upcoming trade or not. If a goal goes in at that point re-check it doesn't fit another angle for further goals.
That's it.
Hoping to hit the ground running in May and make some real inroads. The more data I collect the more solid that data should be in theory. Let's see if it plays out in real life.
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Decent enough day today although annoyed I missed Rukh Brest in Belarus. Only excuse is lazyness at not checking the home match odds were within my parameter for a lay of the 1-0. Anyway, from the top:
Adelaide home odds way out of line with a lay of the 0-0 and as that where it stayed it was a no trade.
Rukh Brest. 1-0 @ HT, home odds under 1.69 max for this score (but still not low enough for FHG), ave over 0.5 for SH high enough and home scoring averages for whole game and SH within parameters. Literally realised this just before the goal. It's great for the strategy, annoying for me.
Steinbach, home odds of 1.87 way above that to be considered for FH goal and also for lay of 0-0. 1-0 came too late for me to consider another tradeas per written parameters on sheet. 1-0 it stayed.
BW Linz, home odds good enough but home FH scoring ave above 2.3 (it was 2.5) so despite the goal it didn't qualify. When another goal came in the 2nd half it was too late to consider another trade. 2-0 it stayed.
Aarau. Home odds too high for FHG or 2nd half lay of 0-0. By the time goal came it was too late to consider another trade. Ended 2-1.
Oss. Home odds not conducive for FHG trade but a quick goal making it 0-3 before 50 mins did allow a lay of the 0-3 on 70. Odds 2.82. Finished 0-4.
Roda, Home odds good enough for FHG but home FH scoring average under the 0.9+ needed. 0-0@ the half. Still 0-0 late on and the match did qualify for a lay of the 0-0 SH. Ended 0-1. Odds 2.62.
Lastly, a loser in Argentina. Not a FHG but home scored quickly 2nd half and it qualified for a lay of the 1-0. Didn't realise at the time but both teams had had a man sent off for the same incident just before I got in. Would not do again. Ended 1-0. Odds 2.34 on the lay.
2 winning trades and 1 loser there for small profit.
Bank stands @ 57.59, same stake tomorrow.
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@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
Damp squib of a day with only Hamburg qualifying for what was in the end, 2 losing trades. Always happens on the first day of a challenge where you make something public ffs haha!!
However... 2 things. I've not hidden that from day 1 I've been tweaking this with the idea that some losses are kept because I see no reason to remove and some I remove until the data tells me to put them back in. More on that later.
Quite a few on the filter would have lost not for my strict criteria and some of the very same snap decisions I made in the past simiilar to those I have made on the above.
First off, I reference earlier that the Kazaks goal times and odds were all wrong for a trade (see home copy sheet where all my criteria are listed) so the goalless 2nd half in Karagandy made no odds to me the same as the late goals in the K. Almaty game.
Barcelona would have looked for all the world to be a prime candidate for a late goal going down 1-2 to Granada ( a goal in the 60's and a goal in the 70's for a 1-2 score line ALMOST hit every rule) but my odds stipulations for this trade according to the rules I've been creating were a minimum of 1.11 over 0.5 SH ave book price (see oddsportal.com) and this was 1.09.
Ends 1-2, no skin off my nose as I didn't touch it.
Alanyaspor, home odds of 3.17 ave book price says no LCS for 0-0. Didn't need to check on anything else, that was an easy one. Ends 0-0 and I could care less.
Plenty of losing trades avoided down to a few simple rules.
Now.....to Hamburg.
At the time of placing both a FHG trade on 19mins and a LCS trade on 69mins these both qualified. Home odds were 1.49 and other rules fit the FHG so I had no problem with it. Hamburg didn't have their shooting boots on and it ended 0-0 @ the break.
Typically enough they scored on 56, while having a look to see what this meant they conceded immediately. This then goes to my 74min entry on 2 goals scored up to the 59th. The over odds fit as did the scoring averages for the home team. Up until today the only scoreline I was excluding was a 2-1 in this scenario. 2-1 often seems to be a bad one.
Once again Hamburg couldn't find their shooting boots and neither could Karlsruhe and the match ended 1-1.
FHG odds 2.52 to lay and late goal was 2.12 to lay so hardly drastic.
Here's where it gets interesting. My data so far was home team less than 1.49 good for a FHG but I only had one match that high. 1.5 and over has been poor so that's been on the red list for a while. Todays result means my data is only 50% for odds that high and 1/1 split. Until more matches occur with those odds and crucially have FHG's 20th minute onwards I have removed from the FHG angle and it now wouldn't qualify.
Next up. The 1-1 scoreline after 2 quick goals. Again it's the same. Only 2 matches where it was 1-1 after 2 quick second half goals and no further goal scored until 75th minute. I'm not saying I won't ever add it back but for now it's not a winning prospect and it goes to the watch list only until I am shown otherwise.
I follow the data wherever it leads me. The idea is that a good strat will get more and more solid over time.
In real terms the bank is now £56.87 and we go again in a bit. Will post up Fridays POTENTIALS shortly. Apologies for the typo's, I'm sure there are many haha!
Small update. Whenever I exclude something I go back and mess with the parameters to see if this means something should be relaxed elsewhere. With the exclusion of a 1-1 scoreline I've checked the home scoring averages for 2nd half again and seems I can take it from 1.1+ to 1+ on the 2 quick second half goals angle.
Obviously it would be great if I could find all this out before placing the trades but that's obv not possible. In any case, despite needing to push on, I class this as the earn while you learn phase and as long as I'm constantly moving in the right direction I will be happy.
Here's to a good Friday.
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Here they are, along with all rules I'm following for various score lines and match scenarios:
I never enter at any different point to the given entry point on the right of each. Bear in mind that 70th minute means in by 69mins so for that I'm always placing my trade @ 68.45mins.
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Damp squib of a day with only Hamburg qualifying for what was in the end, 2 losing trades. Always happens on the first day of a challenge where you make something public ffs haha!!
However... 2 things. I've not hidden that from day 1 I've been tweaking this with the idea that some losses are kept because I see no reason to remove and some I remove until the data tells me to put them back in. More on that later.
Quite a few on the filter would have lost not for my strict criteria and some of the very same snap decisions I made in the past simiilar to those I have made on the above.
First off, I reference earlier that the Kazaks goal times and odds were all wrong for a trade (see home copy sheet where all my criteria are listed) so the goalless 2nd half in Karagandy made no odds to me the same as the late goals in the K. Almaty game.
Barcelona would have looked for all the world to be a prime candidate for a late goal going down 1-2 to Granada ( a goal in the 60's and a goal in the 70's for a 1-2 score line ALMOST hit every rule) but my odds stipulations for this trade according to the rules I've been creating were a minimum of 1.11 over 0.5 SH ave book price (see oddsportal.com) and this was 1.09.
Ends 1-2, no skin off my nose as I didn't touch it.
Alanyaspor, home odds of 3.17 ave book price says no LCS for 0-0. Didn't need to check on anything else, that was an easy one. Ends 0-0 and I could care less.
Plenty of losing trades avoided down to a few simple rules.
Now.....to Hamburg.
At the time of placing both a FHG trade on 19mins and a LCS trade on 69mins these both qualified. Home odds were 1.49 and other rules fit the FHG so I had no problem with it. Hamburg didn't have their shooting boots on and it ended 0-0 @ the break.
Typically enough they scored on 56, while having a look to see what this meant they conceded immediately. This then goes to my 74min entry on 2 goals scored up to the 59th. The over odds fit as did the scoring averages for the home team. Up until today the only scoreline I was excluding was a 2-1 in this scenario. 2-1 often seems to be a bad one.
Once again Hamburg couldn't find their shooting boots and neither could Karlsruhe and the match ended 1-1.
FHG odds 2.52 to lay and late goal was 2.12 to lay so hardly drastic.
Here's where it gets interesting. My data so far was home team less than 1.49 good for a FHG but I only had one match that high. 1.5 and over has been poor so that's been on the red list for a while. Todays result means my data is only 50% for odds that high and 1/1 split. Until more matches occur with those odds and crucially have FHG's 20th minute onwards I have removed from the FHG angle and it now wouldn't qualify.
Next up. The 1-1 scoreline after 2 quick goals. Again it's the same. Only 2 matches where it was 1-1 after 2 quick second half goals and no further goal scored until 75th minute. I'm not saying I won't ever add it back but for now it's not a winning prospect and it goes to the watch list only until I am shown otherwise.
I follow the data wherever it leads me. The idea is that a good strat will get more and more solid over time.
In real terms the bank is now £56.87 and we go again in a bit. Will post up Fridays POTENTIALS shortly. Apologies for the typo's, I'm sure there are many haha!
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@richard-latimer well lets hope your now looking at the correct things. Iv been on this site since jan 2019 and iv seen you have strategies before and always thought you were doing ok, didnt realise you were still on min stakes. I think you have always done too much or looked at obscure things. When we hit rock bottom however we learn a lot about ourselves. Its in that moment you see things clearer. I hope that happens for you in your situation. Anyway im off of now, ill pop in end of next month see how this goes, dont like to have too many notifications. Good luck mate and this new found focus im sure will help. Always a quick message away if needed
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@darri said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@richard-latimer 15-16 yrs of betting and trading?
Since I started looking on forums yeah
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@richard-latimer 15-16 yrs of betting and trading?
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@darri said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@richard-latimer My mind is at ease, if you read your first post it sounded like this needed to happen right now. Well youll manage this no problem. There is enough on this forum to make 30% every month which will means this should make £1,300 after 12 months if compounded each month. If your strategies beat that then your laughing mate. Im glad i asked these questions cause your first post sounded like a hail mary, but really its not and you can still play the long game even from the start. Ill keep watch of how this goes mate, good luck
It's more along the lines of this is the time to make all the hard learning of 15-16 yrs pay off. Now or never in that sense.
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@richard-latimer My mind is at ease, if you read your first post it sounded like this needed to happen right now. Well youll manage this no problem. There is enough on this forum to make 30% every month which will means this should make £1,300 after 12 months if compounded each month. If your strategies beat that then your laughing mate. Im glad i asked these questions cause your first post sounded like a hail mary, but really its not and you can still play the long game even from the start. Ill keep watch of how this goes mate, good luck
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@darri said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@richard-latimer so realistically there is nothing saying this cant be a 8-12 month bank building before we need that money? You have other incomes coming in right to support your needs at home?
Exactly
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@richard-latimer so realistically there is nothing saying this cant be a 8-12 month bank building before we need that money? You have other incomes coming in right to support your needs at home?
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@darri said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@richard-latimer Thats a fair point mate, ill stop interjecting and let you get on with it. I wont take back anything iv said anything i say is from experience of having done things myself, i think we see trading very differently and thats healthy at times, im not just gonna go say my way is the only way but you have limited time by looks of things so maybe the past you needs to change etc, just please if this burns you out or hit a bad run re read what iv said, iv helped plenty members on here change their old habit and make them consistent. Just look at my most recent post to see how this can work with just 2 scenarios. Out of interest how much money was matched in the kazakh games for fhg? From your wording before this needs to work (starting with £59.91) so what kind of money you needing and what bank level does that need to be for it to be enough to start with? Or is there some chain of thought here that this could be a long term thing like say we have 6-12 months for this to work or is the timescale shorter than that?
Timescale is as fast as I can but without putting time restraints on basically. No idea on liquidity as I never even looked. I definitely want this long term. My ceiling is that I don't have one but I'm also realistic. Essentially time will tell but it's a good sign when I can let the losers go because they simply don't qualify.
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@richard-latimer Thats a fair point mate, ill stop interjecting and let you get on with it. I wont take back anything iv said anything i say is from experience of having done things myself, i think we see trading very differently and thats healthy at times, im not just gonna go say my way is the only way but you have limited time by looks of things so maybe the past you needs to change etc, just please if this burns you out or hit a bad run re read what iv said, iv helped plenty members on here change their old habit and make them consistent. Just look at my most recent post to see how this can work with just 2 scenarios. Out of interest how much money was matched in the kazakh games for fhg? From your wording before this needs to work (starting with £59.91) so what kind of money you needing and what bank level does that need to be for it to be enough to start with? Or is there some chain of thought here that this could be a long term thing like say we have 6-12 months for this to work or is the timescale shorter than that?
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@darri said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@richard-latimer have you got a good data set to tell you that entering game when its 3-0 up at 74 mins wins long term?
Is there absolutely no way possible that you can look at your sheet and pinpoint the best performing scenarios and only trade them? Im just being honest here but your gonna burn yourself out with all these different angles.No qualifiers yet today and you'lll be glad to know the Kasaks didn't become trades. In all seriousness I completely get where you are coming from but so far I think you are over-estimating the amount of time I have to give this when I've put everything on paper and the fixtures are right in front of me.
Take this morning.
Neither game qualified for what I'm looking for on FHG and this was easy to see prior to kick off. The first game was never going to be a 2nd or 3rd FHG regardless of goal times and the 2nd game was 0-0 @ HT so time spent looking at those negligible. Karagandy were winning 0-1 @ the break in the first and the score was still 0-1 on 70. A very quick look at the match odds ruled it out immediately at this point.
2nd game went 1-0 on 61 which almost certainly ruled out any trade as the goal was too late in this scenario. Kept an eye in case it went 2-0 or 1-1 in the 70's. Never happened so another no trade.
2 matches and almost zero time spent on looking at them. It's like you've said before, the more times you do something, the quicker you become at doing it.
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Exactly what it says on the tin. I mentioned in jest yesterday that I'll be paying premium charge in the blink of an eye but that's ultimately where I want/need this to go.
So from today I will update this thread with not just trades but amounts. Hopefully it will be an inspiration to see someone go from such a lowly point to such a high. Either that will be an awesome spectacle of what to avoid when chasing the dream haha!
So my bank is currently £59.91 and my to win stake is £1.15 (crazy I know). This will be updated accordingly as the bank increases and will be held in place on a ratchet should the bank fall below this point up until the stop/loss (35% below).
If this ever happens the bank is re-calculated against the new amount so I never go bust. It just ebbs and flows like the waves.
When I invest anything in I'll update accordingly and same goes if I need to remove any (those school uniforms won't pay for themselves).
Let the challenge begin!!!
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@richard-latimer have you got a good data set to tell you that entering game when its 3-0 up at 74 mins wins long term?
Is there absolutely no way possible that you can look at your sheet and pinpoint the best performing scenarios and only trade them? Im just being honest here but your gonna burn yourself out with all these different angles. -
No. It's backing another goal Inna range of scenarios explained on home copy sheet tab. So for example it's 0-0 in the 70th and the match data matches ally written down requirements.
Another example. It's 3-0 with 2 goals coming before second half but before 60. If it meets the other requirements I'll back another goal on 74mins.
I lay the under in each case.
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Hi Mate
sorry if this is a stupid just i came across this and been looking at the sheets just confused at what your looking ? are you backing over 1.5 but only on certain on leagues as some have more average goals ? Its proabably me miss reading stuff but just cant get my head round this.
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Anyway, tomorrow's POTENTIALS are up above my chat with Dari but they're also on the sheet so if anyone wants to play along, read up on the specifics, stake sensibly and only pull the trigger if EVERY SINGLE LITTLE DETAIL IS IN PLACE.
