Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

Richard Latimer

Disappointing day and yet still, the bank being split into 2 pots makes it way less so.

Newcastle went over 1.5 easily.

And the Costa Rican game minimised the damage on home lays.

Full update to follow.

Richard Latimer

Just watched highlights. Oh my days. That goalkeeper for Al Ain....

Richard Latimer

Well the run in the UAE had to end at some point. But why did it have to end at odds of 8.8???

Richard Latimer

@Martin Only leagues I don't track are when liquidity and volume become too low. Then I'll wipe them from sheet and delete from filter like I did with Wales last night despite the wins.

Exception to that was Estonia where I got in a tiz and deleted from home lays sheet and filter after a very poor loss

Martin

@Richard-Latimer do you still track them once removed or is that untracked?

Richard Latimer

Chance to go again on Germany so soon in the over 1.5 but odds look a little high considering I'm only going up to 6.8 there now:

Richard Latimer

Home lays:

Richard Latimer

Now I'm actively trading the over 1.5 it will be time to start weeding out leagues I can't actually use in practice I guess.

Richard Latimer

I don't regret my decision on Germany. It's just sods law.

Win or lose, I don't like the liquidity and volume in Wales so after tonight I'll be removing this league. Doesn't make up for what looks to be a costly mistake though.

Now looking like nothing to regret tonight. Wales is still gone though. Not a league I can upscale in the slightest.

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:

@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:

On my radar this morning is Perth lay. It's in the probably going to be wear I consider an official selection after the game although certainly an outlier.

Perth win stats are awful.

With the overs starting well if slowly and there being 2 banks I feel now is the time for a few risks on the home lays.

Laying Perth. Starts soon.

So that ended in my favour. 1-2.

On this basis I have to go with another home lay for this evening. Wales is currently just in the red but with only one loss from 4 trades. It is however a qualifier and everything points to the home team failing to win.

Laying Barry.

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:

On my radar this morning is Perth lay. It's in the probably going to be wear I consider an official selection after the game although certainly an outlier.

Perth win stats are awful.

With the overs starting well if slowly and there being 2 banks I feel now is the time for a few risks on the home lays.

Laying Perth. Starts soon.

So that ended in my favour. 1-2.

Richard Latimer

On my radar this morning is Perth lay. It's in the probably going to be wear I consider an official selection after the game although certainly an outlier.

Perth win stats are awful.

With the overs starting well if slowly and there being 2 banks I feel now is the time for a few risks on the home lays.

Laying Perth. Starts soon.

Richard Latimer

@Martin agreed so I don't take them out until I have reason to. With the filter in excel I can just add and remove based on what I see.

Martin

@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:

@Martin I look at it differently. If there are so few selections then what are you really losing by putting them on the backburner, watching and seeing what happens.

One loss when you're only getting 3 or 4 a year is pretty pointless. One loss if you're stuck on 2 or 3 is even worse. The higher that loss the more you need to get back to break even. Could even be a couple of seasons.

yes that is a really good point, my only thought on that is that there are quite a few leagues that will only give a handful of selections so when combined can be a decent number.

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:

There are 4 leagues that provide a lot of selections for my overs where the price is often high and the high priced losers happen too often.

However, by capping the price on these leagues I believe I can still make use of the large number of selections and free flowing nature of each league.

Swiss Super
Norway Eliteserien
Netherlands Eerste
Germany Bundesliga

I reckon there's as much as 20pts in these leagues alone if capping accordingly.

The last time I made a decision like this it came back to bite me on the arse. But I just can't ignore every single German Bundesliga selection anymore. There are simply loads on the raw data, a fair few filtered qualifiers and a good percenatge of those which fall below 6.8 to lay (12 trades and 1 loss for a 7pt profit.

So Bundesliga dependent on price being 6.8 or lower (I'll use odds portal if in any doubt on befair as that's the prices I've been using up to now).
Wales as normal.

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:

@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:

2x low odds home lays tomorrow:

Asteras a no trade. Odds too low.

And the other ends 1-0.

Richard Latimer

There are 4 leagues that provide a lot of selections for my overs where the price is often high and the high priced losers happen too often.

However, by capping the price on these leagues I believe I can still make use of the large number of selections and free flowing nature of each league.

Swiss Super
Norway Eliteserien
Netherlands Eerste
Germany Bundesliga

I reckon there's as much as 20pts in these leagues alone if capping accordingly.

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:

2x low odds home lays tomorrow:

Asteras a no trade. Odds too low.

Richard Latimer

Over 1.5 for tomorrow:

Richard Latimer

@Martin I look at it differently. If there are so few selections then what are you really losing by putting them on the backburner, watching and seeing what happens.

One loss when you're only getting 3 or 4 a year is pretty pointless. One loss if you're stuck on 2 or 3 is even worse. The higher that loss the more you need to get back to break even. Could even be a couple of seasons.