Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

Richard Latimer

Home lays:

Over 1.5:

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:

These are tomorrows home lays - Netherlands Eerste is on the fringes though so won't be trading that:

No market in Glentoran which was abandoned anyway.
PSG won 1-2 against Lens and right now Barca in a strong position against Getafe so I wouldn't expect them to lose that.

Looking like a good day all round.

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:

Lay Under 1.5:

Ger 3. Liga doesn't have enough data yet. Switzerland must be max price of 6.6

And of course GER Bundesliga must be max 6.8. Which from looking briefly this morning is never going to happen.

German 3. Liga game won to give me more data (4-0)
Neither Bayern or Servette qualified.
4/4 on the others

Richard Latimer

Netherlands Eerste was also on the fringes. Won't be for a while. 5-0 loss at odds around 2.3.

Maastricht.

It's all on my sheet if anyone is interested.

Richard Latimer

Brilliant to see. I make the decision to drop Thailand after a first loss rather than looking too hard at the filters themselves. A 2nd loss, same home team, at odds around 5.0.

Richard Latimer

@Akiva-Anderson they don't seem to be keen on NI this season.

Akiva Anderson

@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:

No Northern Ireland games on betfair again today it seems.

Crazy, isn’t it?

Richard Latimer

No Northern Ireland games on betfair again today it seems.

Richard Latimer

Lay Under 1.5:

Ger 3. Liga doesn't have enough data yet. Switzerland must be max price of 6.6

And of course GER Bundesliga must be max 6.8. Which from looking briefly this morning is never going to happen.

Richard Latimer

These are tomorrows home lays - Netherlands Eerste is on the fringes though so won't be trading that:

Richard Latimer

Just updating everything at the moment but while I do that the high odds loss in UAE has been bothering me. Not because it was a mistake. It wasn't.

However going through the selections now it appears that since Feb (so almost an entire year) I have 4 selections from the UAE in the high price bracket. One of those has now lost so for the whole year....red.

I'm not exactly sure where this ends. Maybe the sizeable enough profit from high odds games disappears one by one or maybe it just weeds out some leagues at higher odds over time. Either way, I can't really see any massive cons to excluding high odds in UAE from here on so that's what I'm doing.

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:

Lay Under 1.5 (German game must be max 6.6 lay price 5 mins before kick off as per oddsportal).

EDIT: Max 6.8....last time I looked it was just about a qualifier.

2/2

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:

Home lay if the price climbs past 1.9

1-3 so a win. I laid @ 2.06 having just missed kick off.

Richard Latimer

Lay Under 1.5 (German game must be max 6.6 lay price 5 mins before kick off as per oddsportal).

EDIT: Max 6.8....last time I looked it was just about a qualifier.

Richard Latimer

Home lay if the price climbs past 1.9

Richard Latimer

@Martin average odds around 5.3 I think. S/r should be hovering around 91% over the year.

Martin

@Richard-Latimer those are some thin odds on the over 1.5, wishing you good luck with it.

Richard Latimer

And the over 1.5...

Despite it not exactly taking off into orbit this one is kind of doing exactly what it should, just a bit slower than one hoped.

Start with a loss.
8 winning trades to counter the loss and more.
Then another loss.
Another 8 winning trades would be superb please (7 after today)

I should also add that I only had 6 winning trades as one of the missed was in German Bundesliga before I tweaked that. The other was Guimareas.

There was one more in India but need more data there.

Richard Latimer

A very poor start to the home lays. Here's hoping for immediate improvement:

Richard Latimer

Nothing even potentially until Fri morning now.