Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

Here's tomorrows:

Only 1 Belgian Jupiler selection so far but it was a goodun
Got a first selection in Scotland. Will Celtic be able to win convincingl or at least ship enough themselves?!
Bodo have already won the league. Will they continue to run up the score? I see no reason to think otherwise. They'd won last week as well and it didn't stop them scoring 2 late ones to make it 5-1.
Adana won the last time they were selected for this 4-1 after it being 0-0 @ HT.
Finally Molde.

Here's to another good solid day.

[Richard Latimer]

Finally for now though, without the EPL, this is the current state of play:

Over 3.5, 34/48, 71%, ave bookie odds 1.97
Over 1.5 SHG 37/48, 77%, ave bookie odds 1.59
Over 2.5 SHG 14/30, 47%, ave bookie odds 2.69

[Richard Latimer]

And so, not nearly enough data to show anything conclusive but here it anyway in case anyone would like to follow and wants a breakdown of leagues:

[Richard Latimer]

But I'm back over 100 selections again and it's time to remove some low hanging fruit.

Home offensive numbers of 1.35-1.399999 performing better than the numbers below it I've already removed but still decidedly lagging behind the higher numbers. Ave odds for 2 SHG is around 1.75 bookie price and s/r is only 55% They wouldn't lose much if anything but I don't see them adding much to the party longterm.

I'm not removing things based on trades I've done and regretted. These were always on borrowed time and the only thing I'm posting is the best of what I see and what has worked up to now.

[Richard Latimer]

First, a quick tally of the day on these BOGOF's (anyone guess what it stands for haha??):

4 wins, 3 losses on the over 3.5. More than good enough as odds average out around evens. That said, as I've pointed out, it's very clear the EPL is currently underperforming and I'll move them out of the firing line for now. Would be 4 wins, 2 losses. An excellent return.

Over 1.5 SHG @ HT 5 wins, 2 losses. Odds higher but again Man City and the EPL have been useless so far on these. Take them out of the firing line as I will be doing and that would be 5 wins, 1 loss. An excellent return there too.

Over 2.5 SHG @ HT. Started with a bang and a late goal in Singapore very much unexpected at that late stage (to be honest looking at goal times they often are - This thing is littered with clusters of seriously late goals). Anyway then came Bayern, Ajax and Liefering who alway failed on this particular entry of the trade. 1 win, 3 losses for I'd imagine around 0.75-1pt loss.

I now make that 15 wins and 16 losses from what amounts to around odds of 1.6 average.

[Richard Latimer]

Since that last post Bayern did most of the business and Olympiakos got the full win for both entries placed.

Ajax was a loss just over 1pt and Liefering about to fall down big time.

Thank goodness for Porto then who are already 2-2. Another 2 SHG and it will be a good day for these despite Man City who probably just gave me a decent enough excuse to exclude the PL from these for the time being.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Man City look to be undoing a lot of the good work from this morning. Still small green if/when this loses.

On to Bayern.

Interesting. You'd think Man City would be really good for this but 2nd selection and both lost. Also one for Liverpool that lost.

[Richard Latimer]

Man City look to be undoing a lot of the good work from this morning. Still small green if/when this loses.

On to Bayern.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Under 3.5 lay in already in first game.

Late winners for both 2nd half entries. That's the sweep on first game.

[Richard Latimer]

Under 3.5 lay in already in first game.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

A sizeable list but important to note it's unlikely many will qualify as there are quite strict restrictions in place now to get to qualifier stage:

Revised list as hadn't been through looking to exclude promoted home teams and relegated away teams. Reason for this is I want home teams with form for their average goal tallys so need them playing against similar or better opposition to amass the tallys they have.

Opposite is true of the away team. As I want a dominant home performance living up to their average goal tally I want an away team used to playing against lesser or similar teams rather than one where they've come down a league and will probably bounce straight back up.

[Richard Latimer]

A sizeable list but important to note it's unlikely many will qualify as there are quite strict restrictions in place now to get to qualifier stage:

[Richard Latimer]

I'm above 100 selections again on the LTD. Time to remove some more numbers. I've previously mentioned that high numbers are performing as bad if not worse than the low numbers. Sweet spot is in the middle. Already removed some high numbers. Left the others in there but no improvement, in fact you could argue they have performed worse than prev with Leverkusen being the latest high profile unexpected 0-0.

Back to 90 selections for now.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

From the LTD filter I'm working on (JO.F.F.S):

I'm becoming more risk averse. Want no H2 goals prior to 69 mins unless it's 0-1 @ HT and then an equaliser prior to 60mins will be fine (going on current data):

So 0-0/1-1/0-1 @HT. only 2x 2-2 results so far and it's a 50/50 split.

Providing average bookie price for a H2 goal is 1.12+ as per oddsportal.com I will ltd on 69 and cash as soon as there's a goal.

Amstetten was 2-1 @ HT, tracking the win as it went 2-2 before 60 but nothing else right now.
Telstar goal came way too early as did Maastricht.
Lausanne-Ouchy postponed.
Waregem I was getting ready but goal came 5mins too early for my current plan. It's tracked though as a post 60 mins goal.
Almere, over odds too short.

[Richard Latimer]

Looks like some big potential for tomorrow on the BOGOF front:

Providing the home team doesn't turn out to be a dog or pretty much even stevens (think that's unlikely here) I'll be laying under 3.5 on all pre kick-off. At HT I'll be laying under 1.5 SHG. For the ones with offensive numbers over 2.0 I'll also be laying under 2.5 SHG.

[Richard Latimer]

From the LTD filter I'm working on (JO.F.F.S):

I'm becoming more risk averse. Want no H2 goals prior to 69 mins unless it's 0-1 @ HT and then an equaliser prior to 60mins will be fine (going on current data):

So 0-0/1-1/0-1 @HT. only 2x 2-2 results so far and it's a 50/50 split.

Providing average bookie price for a H2 goal is 1.12+ as per oddsportal.com I will ltd on 69 and cash as soon as there's a goal.

[Richard Latimer]

Nothing of any note tomorrow on these

[Richard Latimer]

Jerv didn't qualify as 1-0 @ HT and went 2-0 towards the end.

I said I didn't want to over analyse after the poor result in Singapore but a question I was asked on my sheet (don't know why people do that, if there's any questions ask here) asked whether there was an odds limit on the home team. As everything is geared towards the home team scoring a hatful it's a decent question and one I'd not considered. Lion City yesterday 2.53 ave with the bookies and so I wanted to look into this.

What I'm seeing is consistent numbers all the way up to 2.27 so far. After that, I won't lie it gets a bit more speculative.

Lion City @ 2.53 were just the beginning.

So far from 5 selections, over 3.5 is 1/5.
Over 1.5 SHG is doing much better @ 3/5. That said, the odds are worse and it's probably only a very small gain for those 3 winners.
Over 2.5 SHG is 0/2

Again, I stress early days but it's worth picking these out if to do nothing more than avoid them until there are more results either backing up the claims or debunking them.

So taking these into account just to give the picture so far from 44 games:

Over 3.5 68% s/r (30 wins)
Over 1.5 SHG 73% (32 wins)

From 26 games:

Over 2.5 SHG 50% (13 wins)

[Richard Latimer]

Just Jerv that I'm looking at tomorrow in terms of a H2 goal. I'll be checking ave bookie odds for the over and leaving anything 1.11 or below. Provided all ok I will LTD. on 69mins.

[Richard Latimer]

@finn-kristensen said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@Finn-Kristensen says you commented on my sheet but no idea how to access that haha??

Ha - was a mistake. Somehow Google sheets had some default reply options which I pushed on. I deleted it again as soon as I realized it, lol.

That's why I can't find it. I notice there's another comment/question from somebody but no idea who they are.