Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Stuart Capstick]

It's a nice little thought experiment but, really, a tornado is caused when a lot of warm, humid air make contact with colder, drier air.

You can argue about what causes the body of warm, humid air or what causes the cold, drier air. It could ultimately be a butterfly if you look back far enough down the chain of causation, but there would be literally millions of other causal variables- guy sneezing in Kansas or me leaving the shower on a bit longer than normal etc.

What's the key sign of a tornado? Me fannying around with the shower or a massive body of warm, wet air in, say, Indiana? When are you most confident of a tornado?

You are intelligent enough to see the point I am making. Stick to the key determinants.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer yeah and there in lies the issue, your looking at too much detail for too many outcomes. How simple do the others make this look compared to your lists?

If your posting way before an event what value does it bring you to post 20 mins before you can enter? If you wait those 20 mins then enter the trade its in, we all have your list of game from the other posts so know what games your looking at, then you can post when a trade is active. Dont be thinking loads of people are following a new strategy mate, so dont feel like there is pressure on you to post. Just do whats gonna work for you. Just see that you post a trade up and follow it with a goal too early or just missed this, just wait.

[Richard Latimer]

@darri I also promised to take this back to paper trading at the end of June (possibly July if June continues to be barren) if I'm not seeing significant gains. That promise stands 100%.

I have time but not infinite and I know this.

[Richard Latimer]

@darri I get what you mean but a) if I was so inclined I'd get in now. Just want the better price and b) prefer to concentrate on the actual trade rather than have to worry about posting later.

It's got to be a positive to miss a load rather than hit them and then lose.

I'm not going to go into why I persist on this for now. I'm still in my window, just had no trades for ages. So I've not lost anything haha!!

I would actually just say, I don't think I am trying to reinvent the wheel. I'm just looking at things in MUCH greater detail than I ever have previously.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer instead of always posting these way before the event/entry why dont you just wait till you actually get matched? Half your posts are just missed it i just wait till im matched then post that way those getting in after you are getting better prices and it is then actually a trade your in

I liked the convo about the butterfly things, quite honestly im in agreement with anyone who doesnt give a monkey as long as its winning. There are so many variables in sport trying to understand why everything works is impossible, its feeding into the discussion we have all had about re inventing the wheel. Why, when we have good strats already kicking about. Why do they all make money. Why does an LTD work so many times, trading in general only really cares about 2 things, price and strike rate. You marry those two up in your favour who cares what else happens. Your ability to find a good strike rate will be as a result of knowing a good detail of some of the variables but if you try to fit a strategy into every scenario your stretching yourself too thin, it should be a small set of scenarios with a small set of variables and master them with knowledge inside out.

Which kind of yet again goes onto this list you have and why its all too much. But best left alone as ill just be repeating myself.

[Richard Latimer]

Right, as things stand....LCS Valur 70th minute.

[Richard Latimer]

@dan-mackinnon said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@richard-latimer I was reading a book earlier and they talked about the butterfly flapping it’s wings can cause a tornado in Texas.

It’s all to do with probability. The butterfly itself isn’t the sole reason but if one change creates 2 outcomes, that might create 2 more each, then those create more, etc. So there is an almost infinite number of possibilities until something happens to omit those opportunities.

You could say a defender has an option to pass back to his keeper or to his wing back. They pass it and so on until there’s a goal. But you wouldn’t say the defender created the goal.

It’s one of those things that sounds more interesting that it is when you actually go into more detail. The same as how Danny Dyer is related to Edward II or whatever - yes about 80% of the country is!

No question but there is the unexplanable and I think the point was, if it works do you really need it explained? I would have been on Valerenga tonight other than my criteria for a 1-1 HT LCS (where home took the lead) is only 1.6-1.8 home scored ave and this was 2.0.

All I know is it saved me a small amount of cash and the criteria holds firm for now.

[Dan MacKinnon]

@richard-latimer I was reading a book earlier and they talked about the butterfly flapping it’s wings can cause a tornado in Texas.

It’s all to do with probability. The butterfly itself isn’t the sole reason but if one change creates 2 outcomes, that might create 2 more each, then those create more, etc. So there is an almost infinite number of possibilities until something happens to omit those opportunities.

You could say a defender has an option to pass back to his keeper or to his wing back. They pass it and so on until there’s a goal. But you wouldn’t say the defender created the goal.

It’s one of those things that sounds more interesting that it is when you actually go into more detail. The same as how Danny Dyer is related to Edward II or whatever - yes about 80% of the country is!

[Richard Latimer]

Ended 4-1 but no researched trading opportunity in sight.

Nothing but crumbs here. 2 games inplay at the moment no good as things stand. That said, I don't regret staying away from the Euro's with the stress that is causing of recent.

Good to just watch the tournament with no skin in the game.

[Richard Latimer]

2 more goals though. It just shows that goals do breed goals and the standard average can't be relied on when teams get into the groove like this.

[Richard Latimer]

That game is dead to me now.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

Will lay under 0.5 Molde 70th minute

Too early with the 1st and a 2nd now. No trade planned at this stage but rest assured if I do post it will be a planned trade straight from the trading plan.

[Richard Latimer]

Will lay under 0.5 Molde 70th minute

[Richard Latimer]

4 potentials for tomorrow although given that my last list of around 10 potentials has ended up with one trade and I only have 1 trade I would repeat so far in June, I don't hold out much hope. We shall see:

[John Folan]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@john-folan said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@john-folan exactly. Like I said, I've always been so preoccupied on hypothesising about everything but it's really pretty irrelevant.

If it works, it works.

Exactly. There’s a horse racing strategy where people back a horse to win its first race after win pipe surgery as the win rate is pretty impressive. Does it work? Yes. Do I know why? Nope. Do I care as long as it works? Nope

Good to know. Where do you find history of their surgeries haha??

It was on proform or you can go through Timeform. I’ll add it to my list of things to add when Adam puts the horse software in beta shortly.

[Richard Latimer]

@john-folan said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@john-folan exactly. Like I said, I've always been so preoccupied on hypothesising about everything but it's really pretty irrelevant.

If it works, it works.

Exactly. There’s a horse racing strategy where people back a horse to win its first race after win pipe surgery as the win rate is pretty impressive. Does it work? Yes. Do I know why? Nope. Do I care as long as it works? Nope

Good to know. Where do you find history of their surgeries haha??

[John Folan]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@john-folan exactly. Like I said, I've always been so preoccupied on hypothesising about everything but it's really pretty irrelevant.

If it works, it works.

Exactly. There’s a horse racing strategy where people back a horse to win its first race after win pipe surgery as the win rate is pretty impressive. Does it work? Yes. Do I know why? Nope. Do I care as long as it works? Nope

[Richard Latimer]

@john-folan exactly. Like I said, I've always been so preoccupied on hypothesising about everything but it's really pretty irrelevant.

If it works, it works.

[John Folan]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

Had a bit of time this morning so decided to re-visit a video which I believe @john folan had posted at some point in the past.

Very interesting all the way through but one thing I took from it and it kind of contradicts many of the things I have thought in the past is that correaltion and not ncessarily causation is what is important.

Some guys tracked millions and millions of lines of data in horse racing to see what impacted what but they weren't in the slightest bit interested in untangling it to find out why.

It mattered little to them that x happened when y was apparent or vice versa. Only that it did happen. I've always sought to hypothesise a reason for why something is happening but this has just shown me that's not the important part to concentrate on.

It suports more what I'm doing now in terms of following the data. Of course I don't have a million results to analyse haha!

But one example he brought up was soemthing like the largest chocolate making countries on the planet apparently have the most nobel prize winners. Clearly no causation then and something else going on but.....

a) Does it matter (I suppose yes if it isn't going to continue and no if it will)
b) Chaos theory....a butterfly flapping it's wings halfway across the world causes a tornado. Who knows why but maybe there is a reason.

All the same, a very interesting watch.

A good video this. Taught me to focus on what was happening not why.

[Richard Latimer]

Had a bit of time this morning so decided to re-visit a video which I believe @john folan had posted at some point in the past.

Very interesting all the way through but one thing I took from it and it kind of contradicts many of the things I have thought in the past is that correaltion and not ncessarily causation is what is important.

Some guys tracked millions and millions of lines of data in horse racing to see what impacted what but they weren't in the slightest bit interested in untangling it to find out why.

It mattered little to them that x happened when y was apparent or vice versa. Only that it did happen. I've always sought to hypothesise a reason for why something is happening but this has just shown me that's not the important part to concentrate on.

It suports more what I'm doing now in terms of following the data. Of course I don't have a million results to analyse haha!

But one example he brought up was soemthing like the largest chocolate making countries on the planet apparently have the most nobel prize winners. Clearly no causation then and something else going on but.....

a) Does it matter (I suppose yes if it isn't going to continue and no if it will)
b) Chaos theory....a butterfly flapping it's wings halfway across the world causes a tornado. Who knows why but maybe there is a reason.

All the same, a very interesting watch.