Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

And here again my live test of new filter similar in theory concentrating on comebacks:

As before stay away from the red boxes. Need to find a quicker way of doing this as taking me too long. These are finding some really nice low price lays though. 2 tonight in the 1.2's with Botafogo and Necaxa coming back even after a red.

[Richard Latimer]

Another less than satisfying day (thank you Molde) made better by a last minute goal in Marseille.

Sunday looks......well........crazy!

Not streamlined by taking out early season games or crappy leagues yet but just wanted to get them posted.

[Richard Latimer]

It's taken a while to sort it all out but here is the revised list(s):

ELO's

New Trial (only those without red boxes on the right):

[Richard Latimer]

Also Heerenveen not played enough games yet.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Big list for the trial but cut down considerably as I won't be doing any with a red box:

Time to keep check out for some leagues and what's remaining. Al Ahly have won already in Egypt. Scrap that one.

[Richard Latimer]

Big list for the trial but cut down considerably as I won't be doing any with a red box:

[Richard Latimer]

Nothing doing Friday. Mosy didn't qualify and the 2 that did lost at short odds.

Ive not gone through leagues yet. All I've done is to remove early early season games. Beware the Belgians!

[Richard Latimer]

Fri:

Mix it up. Firstly there's my live trial which despite not tooooo many results yet, I am ever so confident about.

If any of these home teams fall behind I will look to lay the away with the possible exception of those Malaysian as no dat yet and league can be funny.

ELO's

Everyone knows the drill:

[Richard Latimer]

So with Breidablik short odds lay losing @ 1.17 I finish on just under 1pt green and that at least stops the bleeding. Time to cauterise the wound tomorrow and let it scab over haha!

In short for the rest, a H2 goals win in Israel and Egypt adds to the data although no money on those as want to gather way more data before I dip my feet back in.

Lay of Jiangsu Suning, Kopavogur gave the green and lay of Breidablik took a tiny sample of that green back.

[Richard Latimer]

Next, on the Costa Rican league which I had recently expressed doubts on. Saprissa down 0-1 after 5, 0-2 after 6......it just got worse and they were thrased 0-4 in the end. Firstly I'm glad to say it confirms my doubts as much as 2 heavy losses could in a short space of time. It would take a while to get those both back. Also, it was at 3am so lucky I was in bed haha!!

The next thing to say is that maybe Costa Rica isn't a total no go zone for laying winning teams. The strat I've just started live testing brought up Saprissa BUT I had already said it would be one best left alone as away team is just as likely to win from taking the lead as they are to concede.

In fact it's somethoing I was going to ask @Adam-Williams about. Whether a new rating could be added that measured how often a team is pulled back as opposed to giving a comeback rating. Could only improve the ELO I think.

[Richard Latimer]

In a bit more detail now I'm off my phone. Firstly the ELO's. A nice short price lay in China this morning and a much larger price lay (due in no small part to the red away had received before taking the lead) which also came good. I just wanted a green day and mistakenly thought the 4.6 or thereabouts on offer was one of my newest filters so left it alone. Not the end of the world but another nice result for the data.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

I may as well put it out there now:

If any of the teams highlighted in green are to fall behind I would expect an equaliser. Not Saprissa and not Cobresal though as away team takes lead frequently and is more likely to go on and win from there than the others.

I'm just starting to live test this on account of shelving the H2 goals to track further.

Only one qualifier on these but it was a nice win. Laid Kopavogur @ evens and ended 1-1.

Aside from that Toronto gave a H2 goal win for the data and Guangzhou came back on the ELO's although conceded again and failed to get the double bubble.

Nevertheless it's a green day and almost a week since I've had one of those.

[Richard Latimer]

I may as well put it out there now:

If any of the teams highlighted in green are to fall behind I would expect an equaliser. Not Saprissa and not Cobresal though as away team takes lead frequently and is more likely to go on and win from there than the others.

I'm just starting to live test this on account of shelving the H2 goals to track further.

[Richard Latimer]

Tomorrows ELO along with an overnighter if you can catch it:

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@john-hurst said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer whats going on with the dog lays mate, i know there has been quite a few selections of late but it seems like ages since i did one haha feel like we went through a patch of doing a couple a day at one point. Is it just me not keeping track or is it something else?

Nothing for a few days although I did forget to post today anyway. Kawasaki and Kashima both won without going behind.

Egyptian game later.

Egyptian one also qualifies under my trial.

[Richard Latimer]

@john-hurst said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer whats going on with the dog lays mate, i know there has been quite a few selections of late but it seems like ages since i did one haha feel like we went through a patch of doing a couple a day at one point. Is it just me not keeping track or is it something else?

Nothing for a few days although I did forget to post today anyway. Kawasaki and Kashima both won without going behind.

Egyptian game later.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer whats going on with the dog lays mate, i know there has been quite a few selections of late but it seems like ages since i did one haha feel like we went through a patch of doing a couple a day at one point. Is it just me not keeping track or is it something else?

[Richard Latimer]

Now I've shelved the H2 goals in favour of just tracking and collecting data I've been trying to see how the new lay winning team strat I'm working on can be improved. It will surprise nobody that as soon as I take out the realy early season games I can see an instant improvement. One thing I'm guilty of and I don't know if others can recognise this in themselves as well, is looking too much at individual trades. You think yes but if I remove said games I remove that winnign trade and it was a good one, rather than looking at the overall picture.

Anyway it's not the only thing I can see to tighten up on but it has definitely helped me me see the wood from the trees.

A bit of aftertiming on here but it's no good for me anyway as I took something else and got burnt.

Iwata was a lay around 1.33 and they drew 1-1.

[Richard Latimer]

@john-hurst said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer china is a strange one now cause they are all (i think) in neutral venues.

YeH ah but they've been one of the better performing for a while. Just not feeling great about the H2 goals at the moment so collecting data. In the meantimeI'll continue with my ELO's as well as looking to develop another similar strat.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer china is a strange one now cause they are all (i think) in neutral venues.