Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

I'll be off to bed soon so the overnighters are just for tracking more than likely. Especially Nicaragua.

[Richard Latimer]

Monaco had a red almost the exact point of any potential entry. Not one I'd be adding. Still, great day. I'll post up POTENTIALS for tomorrow soon.

[Richard Latimer]

Going to try and keep this as simple as possible and updating here before I update my sheet:

Qualifiers only - if I don't mention the game, it didn't qualify and this can be backed up by all the criteria I've posted.

Gia Lai vs Binh Duong in Vietnam. Qualified for 2nd FHG but liquidity not great and 2nd goal went in seconds before I was matched. In hindsight it was the difference of around 10 single ticks so I really should have bitten the bullet immediately.

Yenisey v Chertanovo in Russia. Laid under 1.5 70th min @ 2.62. Ended 1-1. +.98pt (£1.13)
Olimpiyets v Spartak Moscow II. Laid under 0.5 FH 20th min @ 2.1. 1-0 @ HT. +.98pt (£1.13)
B36 Torshavn v Itrorrarfelag (Faroes). Laid under 0.5 FH 20th min @ 2.76. 0-1 @ HT. +98pt (£1.13)
Olimpiyets v Spartak Moscow II. Laid under 2.5 70th min @ 2.7. Ended 4-0. +0.98pt (£1.13)
Montpellier v St Etienne. Laid under 3.5 70th min @ 2.48. Ended 1-2. -1.48pts (-£1.70)
Real Potosi v Nacional Potosi (Bolivia). Laid under 2.5 70th min. Ended 1-2. +0.98pts (£1.13)

P/L 3.42pts (£3.95)

New stake calculated for tomorrow as £1.17

Now to update the sheet. The Monaco game was under surveillance but one of the criterias wasn't met. However, I will check to see what the data is telling me going forward.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

I placed a really low odds lay (1.05) when I woke before realising this. Hopefully if anyone else was up, they didn't get burned.
Next Ulm in Germany Regionalliga. Layed 0-0 on 70 for 2.52 as it fit my criteria at the time. Ended 0-0 so as I do with every loss, I look for something that made this different. If I find the difference I take it off the table until there's commonality. With this, a quick scan and I was able to see 1.15 for home odds was the lowest lay of 0-0 I had in my qualified results. I've now upped it to 1.19 for the time being.
A losing selection that in the circumstances tomorrow would be avoided.
Now to the good stuff....
Shakhtar 2--0 up @ HT. Laid 70th minute and late late goal made it 2-1
Heracles 2-0 up @ HT, early SH goal, laid 70th and finished 4-0.
Cibalia 1-0 up @ HT, early SH goal, laid 2-0 70th - Winner
Trencin 1-0 up @ HT, early SH goal, laid 2-0 70th - Winner
Finally, goal crazy in Sesvete with 2 goals in the 50's and one 61st. Score 4-3 on my 70th lay. Unfortunately stayed that way but only an evens lay so no biggie!
Nothing to change on this one at present.

As @Darri requested:

I placed a really low odds lay (1.05) when I woke before realising this. Hopefully if anyone else was up, they didn't get burned. My loss .05points

Next Ulm in Germany Regionalliga. Layed 0-0 on 70 for 2.52 as it fit my criteria at the time. Ended 0-0 so as I do with every loss, I look for something that made this different. If I find the difference I take it off the table until there's commonality. With this, a quick scan and I was able to see 1.15 for home odds was the lowest lay of 0-0 I had in my qualified results. I've now upped it to 1.19 for the time being. -1.52pts

A losing selection that in the circumstances tomorrow would be avoided.

Now to the good stuff....

Shakhtar 2--0 up @ HT. Laid 70th minute and late late goal made it 2-1 +.98pts
Heracles 2-0 up @ HT, early SH goal, laid 70th and finished 4-0. +.98pts
Cibalia 1-0 up @ HT, early SH goal, laid 2-0 70th - Winner +.98pts
Trencin 1-0 up @ HT, early SH goal, laid 2-0 70th - Winner +.98pts

Finally, goal crazy in Sesvete with 2 goals in the 50's and one 61st. Score 4-3 on my 70th lay. Unfortunately stayed that way but only an evens lay so no biggie! -1pts

Nothing to change on this one at present.

Profit from 4 winners 3.92pts
Loss from 2 losers -2.52pts
Total p/l 1.4pts

As my stake is £1.15 currently, actual profit slightly more in £'s (although not by much).

Bank stands at £59.15, stake remains £1.15.

[Richard Latimer]

@darri said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@richard-latimer no im not talking about your results sheet, those sheets scare me im too simple to look at that, im talking about when your doing these update posts. Just gives a easier understanding of what your upto. If your gonna be doing a detail update on each trade may aswell add the p/l of each trade at the end of each sentence.

Smart filters are a good step for you. Just stop with the constant tweaking. If your tweaking each day thats not because of you spotting something thats you reacting to a loss. Lets put it this way if stuarts ltd had lost in its first 2 months you would have tweaked it too much. Its now one of his best strategies. My late goals had a terrible start yet its now my best performing as i let it run its course. Let things breathe. This is truly where the fact your looking at way too much is gonna just ramp up the learning curve of mastering this strategy/filter. Iv never seen so many variables for an lcs trade before. I know it seems like im nagging, but im just telling you from experience this just looks difficult and tbh i will stop posting on here for a while, like i say ill come end of the month see how your doing. Good luck i dont want it to actually start to look like im having a go, obviously at times i find it hard not to always want to help and maybe on this one i cant.

I'm out with dog at the moment so need to be brief. If I tweak it I can tweak it back. Without a these tweaks I wouldn't have to a strategy in the first place. Saved myself loads of losers from learning as I go. It's just tightening things up that can be relaxed as the data shows me more. A large individual dataset will take me ages to get. This is just making it playable while I get there.

I will add p/l with trades but without looking at the criteria and detailed results it won't really be possible to truly understand what I'm doing on each.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer no im not talking about your results sheet, those sheets scare me im too simple to look at that, im talking about when your doing these update posts. Just gives a easier understanding of what your upto. If your gonna be doing a detail update on each trade may aswell add the p/l of each trade at the end of each sentence.

Smart filters are a good step for you. Just stop with the constant tweaking. If your tweaking each day thats not because of you spotting something thats you reacting to a loss. Lets put it this way if stuarts ltd had lost in its first 2 months you would have tweaked it too much. Its now one of his best strategies. My late goals had a terrible start yet its now my best performing as i let it run its course. Let things breathe. This is truly where the fact your looking at way too much is gonna just ramp up the learning curve of mastering this strategy/filter. Iv never seen so many variables for an lcs trade before. I know it seems like im nagging, but im just telling you from experience this just looks difficult and tbh i will stop posting on here for a while, like i say ill come end of the month see how your doing. Good luck i dont want it to actually start to look like im having a go, obviously at times i find it hard not to always want to help and maybe on this one i cant.

[Richard Latimer]

@darri said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@richard-latimer add them on these posts, instead of just writing winner/losers say what the points/money won or lost was.

You may be keeping the data but before each trading day your going into them with historic data that says it works, yet after each day your then tweaking? Please tell me you have a good data set as surely one or two trades each day arent affecting your data that much?

I did that yesterday I'm sure but pushed for time this morning. I'll sort, to make it more user friendly.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer add them on these posts, instead of just writing winner/losers say what the points/money won or lost was.

You may be keeping the data but before each trading day your going into them with historic data that says it works, yet after each day your then tweaking? Please tell me you have a good data set as surely one or two trades each day arent affecting your data that much?

[Richard Latimer]

@darri said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@richard-latimer you could add how much each trade won or lost points/money wise? That would make it easier to read and understand. Why are you tweaking everyday? Let things run dont focus on short term results. If this is a long term play let them run a bit. Your potentially killing good data.

I'm not killing anything because I still have it there. That's the thing, I'm collecting everything. As soon as I see something different I can add/remove based on historical data.

It's the thing that separates everything I've ever done before. The smart filters.

I will try and add a new tab for actual results which can have points attached. Will make the most sense.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer you could add how much each trade won or lost points/money wise? That would make it easier to read and understand. Why are you tweaking everyday? Let things run dont focus on short term results. If this is a long term play let them run a bit. Your potentially killing good data.

[Richard Latimer]

Update POTENTIALS for today. Nothing has qualified yet so removed the overnight/early morning ones:

[Richard Latimer]

As promised:

I don't have enough time to go through everything that didn't qualify. Juat have to hope people read through and can see enough for themselves. That said, there are a few areas of tweaking where I will explain what I'm doing going forward.

First off, Tokyo in the early hours, I'm thinkful I didn't get. Would have been a play but going forward would not. I my angle for 1 quick early SH goal up to 55 and another one up to 69 it qualified. What I noticed when I lookked through again is the small number of matches where home team had high odds actually made the angle worse. For now, moving forward it's a max 3.25 on home odds in this scenario.

I placed a really low odds lay (1.05) when I woke before realising this. Hopefully if anyone else was up, they didn't get burned.

Next Ulm in Germany Regionalliga. Layed 0-0 on 70 for 2.52 as it fit my criteria at the time. Ended 0-0 so as I do with every loss, I look for something that made this different. If I find the difference I take it off the table until there's commonality. With this, a quick scan and I was able to see 1.15 for home odds was the lowest lay of 0-0 I had in my qualified results. I've now upped it to 1.19 for the time being.

A losing selection that in the circumstances tomorrow would be avoided.

Now to the good stuff....

Shakhtar 2--0 up @ HT. Laid 70th minute and late late goal made it 2-1
Heracles 2-0 up @ HT, early SH goal, laid 70th and finished 4-0.
Cibalia 1-0 up @ HT, early SH goal, laid 2-0 70th - Winner
Trencin 1-0 up @ HT, early SH goal, laid 2-0 70th - Winner

Finally, goal crazy in Sesvete with 2 goals in the 50's and one 61st. Score 4-3 on my 70th lay. Unfortunately stayed that way but only an evens lay so no biggie!

Nothing to change on this one at present.

So a 4/6 day which going forward would be 4/5 day. Almost a couple of points profit yesterday regardless and this is about the long term. Improving and solidifying things moving forward to make the best possible strategy I can.

[Richard Latimer]

I'll update properly tomorrow as need to get to bed but decent enough day:

Guabira in Bolivia is not a qualifier for anything and Nicaragua isn't worth staying up for haha! First game Sunday is Aus. First POTENTIAL that is:

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer dont need to explain it mate, just see how the next few months go

[Richard Latimer]

@Darri one thing to note, is this is actually way less time consuming than the dog lay thing I did for a year. Only need to be checking the phone at very specific intervals. Most of the day I can leave it well alone.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@darri said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@richard-latimer Good luck today mate, that is a rather large list of games and all throughout the day. Look after yourself lad with this. I know you want this so badly but please be careful. This is what id describe as a slave to trading, i was like that and it messed me up mental health wise. I ended up taking a break from i all. Every notification that popped on the phone id stop doing whatever i was doing and double checked it qualified. Iv sometimes avoided doing something social/work related because i knew i had 5-6 games in that time period so said no to them. It annoyed the people i was around. Please just look after yourself lad. Iv sent you a message privately about something outside of trading just so i can understand a bit more without asking publicly.

Thanks mate. Trust me, I'm busy sorting out my son's room. This will be in the background haha!

I get what you mean on the notifications. I've definitely been a slave to them in the past. I'll have a look at the message.

[Richard Latimer]

@darri said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@richard-latimer Good luck today mate, that is a rather large list of games and all throughout the day. Look after yourself lad with this. I know you want this so badly but please be careful. This is what id describe as a slave to trading, i was like that and it messed me up mental health wise. I ended up taking a break from i all. Every notification that popped on the phone id stop doing whatever i was doing and double checked it qualified. Iv sometimes avoided doing something social/work related because i knew i had 5-6 games in that time period so said no to them. It annoyed the people i was around. Please just look after yourself lad. Iv sent you a message privately about something outside of trading just so i can understand a bit more without asking publicly.

Thanks mate. Trust me, I'm busy sorting out my son's room. This will be in the background haha!

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer Good luck today mate, that is a rather large list of games and all throughout the day. Look after yourself lad with this. I know you want this so badly but please be careful. This is what id describe as a slave to trading, i was like that and it messed me up mental health wise. I ended up taking a break from i all. Every notification that popped on the phone id stop doing whatever i was doing and double checked it qualified. Iv sometimes avoided doing something social/work related because i knew i had 5-6 games in that time period so said no to them. It annoyed the people i was around. Please just look after yourself lad. Iv sent you a message privately about something outside of trading just so i can understand a bit more without asking publicly.

[Richard Latimer]

Was up too late for Tokyo but it lost. Just a quick tweak on the goal 46-55 & 60-69. I now want home odds between 1.35 - 3.25 ave book price as per oddsportal.com

[Richard Latimer]

Many many potentials for tomorrow, not many will qualify and I hopefully won't spend too long worrying about it. Phone on, keep one eye on the score, check for potential FHG's pre-match, check for more potential goals FH depending on goal times and other parameters.

Once in the 2nd half, check each fixture briefly around 60mins to see if there's an upcoming trade or not. If a goal goes in at that point re-check it doesn't fit another angle for further goals.

That's it.

Hoping to hit the ground running in May and make some real inroads. The more data I collect the more solid that data should be in theory. Let's see if it plays out in real life.