Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

Not sure who's awake but Gremio. All one way traffic at the moment in everything but shots on target.

My lay went in @ 3.5. It's come down a bit since then but still in the high 2's

[Richard Latimer]

While still tracking the the lesser performing figures I have created a 2nd sheet in the way I have with ELO's for non performing countries/leagues.

I know some would continue to track everything on the same sheet but psychologically this hurts me. It may sound silly but when I look at a spreadsheet and see a healthy strike rate and yield with lots of green gaps between the red it gives me more confidence going into the next day. When I see that same sheet with a massive chunk of red then even if a) I've not been affected by it and b) it's to be paper trade only for the time being, I still feel more doubts creep in about the next game and and the game after that.

By keeping them seperate it's way more than I've done before and then it's a good thing. But it's also a compromise to the way my brain likes to handle these matters.

I'll also keep certain scorelines seperate as well until I'm happy to include them on the main sheet. The only goal here is to make money and as long as that's happening then what method is being used to achieve the goal becomes more irrelevant than it otherwise would be.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Corinthians match currently 0-1 @ HT and enough to suggest there should be another goal. Odds good. Laying under 1.5 @ 2.5.

Normal service resumed. 1-1.

[Richard Latimer]

Thu ELO:

Won't be staying up for the late ones. Just collecting data. There's a game in the MLS as well but not a trustoworthy league on these at the moment so just tracking.

[Richard Latimer]

Corinthians match currently 0-1 @ HT and enough to suggest there should be another goal. Odds good. Laying under 1.5 @ 2.5.

[Richard Latimer]

@martin-futter said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@martin-futter said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer how much do you take into account players being called up out of interest?

How do you mean? As in key players missing through international duty?

Yes mate

I do check the lineups where possible for key players. If the inplay stats suggest it's going the way I want I would be less inclined to move on and more inclined to follow my plan regardless.

[Martin]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@martin-futter said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer how much do you take into account players being called up out of interest?

How do you mean? As in key players missing through international duty?

Yes mate

[Matt Wood]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@martin-futter said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer how much do you take into account players being called up out of interest?

How do you mean? As in key players missing through international duty?

I guess, for me at least, missing and first game back?

[Richard Latimer]

@martin-futter said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer how much do you take into account players being called up out of interest?

How do you mean? As in key players missing through international duty?

[Martin]

@richard-latimer how much do you take into account players being called up out of interest?

[Richard Latimer]

@martin-futter said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer have you got much popping up with the internationals? I imagine Asia and Scandinavia will carry on

I only look a day ahead but there's usually a few things during internationals. Obv not as much.

[Martin]

@richard-latimer have you got much popping up with the internationals? I imagine Asia and Scandinavia will carry on

[Richard Latimer]

Nothing on 'Titanic'

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

A few goal selections for Wed as well starting in MLS if odds etc....ok. So I'm happy with the countries/leagues. I'm happy with the goals scored for and goals combined numbers for goals conceded along with % goals scored after HT.

In short I'm happy with everything. If any of these trades qualify and then lose so be it. They're not on the edge of anything that I can see. They're right where I would want them to be assuming enough key players on the pitch/attacking intent shown through sofascore graph/inplay stats.

After all I forgot to post them haha!

[Richard Latimer]

A few goal selections for Wed as well starting in MLS if odds etc....ok. So I'm happy with the countries/leagues. I'm happy with the goals scored for and goals combined numbers for goals conceded along with % goals scored after HT.

In short I'm happy with everything. If any of these trades qualify and then lose so be it. They're not on the edge of anything that I can see. They're right where I would want them to be assuming enough key players on the pitch/attacking intent shown through sofascore graph/inplay stats.

[Richard Latimer]

3 more ELO's fot tomorrow:

There's more on the list of monitored under the tab can't get back up if anyone wants to see but I'll just be doing these if the opportunity arises.

[Richard Latimer]

No late goals picks but an overnighter in Titanic if anyone is burning the midnight oil. I won't be haha!

[Richard Latimer]

There's also a game in Ecuador although I'll be leaving that one well alone until I have more data.

[Richard Latimer]

It's gonna get quiet but there's a couple of potentias for tomorrow. Let's start off Sept in the green. I was going to say a bang but that will be pushing it haha!

[Richard Latimer]

@darri said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Sometimes when it comes to trading and iv noticed it here people can massively over complicate things. I think your looking into sample sizes not big enough and just basing opinions rather than letting the data play out a bit more. For me if your basing a filter off of season stats then last seasons data should be void. Bit bullish to say that but so much changes, new signings, new tactics, new managers and new ambitions.

Each criteria for analysing data like this should have a larger sample size. Im not talking about the overall amount of trades but when you get granule and start looking at different criteria such as how many were start of season so between 0-10 games same with league data too you need to allow data to drive your decisions. Sometimes in the past you have jumped or reacted to certain things. 4 losses on the bounce and straight away your analysing just one example. Your doing fine mate. Dont do reaction decisions and dont use small data sizes let them breathe. Paper testing shouldnt be rushed. Only employ money on things once its become almost robotic like in selection and consistency. The late goals is something iv been trading for a while now and like to think im fairly well educated in them, make sure your looking at all the variables within the game not just the filters.

I'm still tracking them. I just think it should give me pause before putting money down while collecting the data. I know hat you mean the small data samples not being able to give you all the answers but I do think it could possibly act as a way to avoid costly mistakes until the data sample is larger in size. In fairness it's the way I worked on ELO's. What I want to avoid there is removing things after putting money on and rather keep my money in the wallet until I'm happy with certain areas.