Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

Much better day today even with Arsenal shitting the bed. Thanks to @Darri who has made me think about the odds before jumping in. It's not to say I don't take higher odds but I'm looking at the inplay stats before jumping on anything above 3.0 very specifically.

Worked a charm today.

Thespakusatsu was decent odds and cashed 1-1

Molde went behind and the odds were just over 3.0. left it unmatched initially. They equalised late.

Porto went behind and odds were high but you could see they were dominant and I trusted them to come back. Come back they did just before HT.

Crvena Zvezda went behind around the 60th minute and odds were around 3.5-4.0 and jumping around. Could see that the away team were 50.0 when level so more than happy to lay although I left it unmatched @ 3.0. When it finally did match it did that thing where the price crashed to 2.8 then 2.6. Thankfully Crvena got a pen and they levelled. Actually won but I was out.

Arsenal went behind but then didn't. Then they did and they did again and again. Odds were ok so not end of the world for the trade but mighty pissed off other than that!

Milan went behind but odds high and they didn't look dominant. Left it for a bit and still not dominant. Odds still high. Then Verona made it 0-2. At that point I jumped as a goal back was highly likely. Went 1-2 and I cashed. When Milan were dominating the 2nd and odds much lower I got back in. Happy 2-2 cashout.

Normally I would have been in at 0-1, re-laying 0-2 and then cashing for small green at 1-2. As is this was a big green and smaller liability.

[Richard Latimer]

Can't get going at the moment but I'm glat have escaped from Radnicki Nis intact.

Saarbrucken was a nice straightforward comeback.
Was all ready to lay Radnik @ 3.0 when the price jumped up beyond 4.0. Then the liquidity disappeared and so I left it. Looked suspicious and for all the world like a fix. Eventually the price came in and the lay price moved closer to back so with mere minutes left I attempted a lay @ 1.19. Didn't work but I feel ok.
Fener are usually quite reliable sowhen they went behind I didn't take too long to get involved. Price was jumping though and so no sooner that I matched @ evens the price flew in and never went back. They lost a 2nd goal and despite a re-lay there nothing doing here.

On to Sunday:

[Richard Latimer]

Finally stopped the bleeding again today. 1 trade, 1 win, no mistakes. Thank you NEC.

Sat:

[Richard Latimer]

Should have stayed away from Ecuador but odds looked good as did inplay stats. Ecuador is definitely on my list to avoid at present until I see much much more:

[Richard Latimer]

Another nothing day coming up. Ecuador is a possibility.

[Richard Latimer]

Klaksvik qualified today but barely and I doubt I'll even include it in results such were the odds. They came back before the odds had even settled as well.

Nothing else so a scratch day. Feels good haha!

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Just Kofu and another team in Faroes tomorrow. Faroes very rarely qualify. Prob a good league for backing as their favourites mostly seem to steamroller the other team haha!

Then again they are quite heavy favourites!

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Just Kofu and another team in Faroes tomorrow. Faroes very rarely qualify. Prob a good league for backing as their favourites mostly seem to steamroller the other team haha!

[Richard Latimer]

Just Kofu and another team in Faroes tomorrow. Faroes very rarely qualify. Prob a good league for backing as their favourites mostly seem to steamroller the other team haha!

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@darri said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer been watching how you do for a while mate, iv always said the same thing about how i would trade them. Are you doing any of the following:

Current season only data
at least 10 games worth of current season played, always are upsets early season its why small teams can be near top because teams need time to gel together, united under fergie were prime examples of this.
key players
in play stats/watching the game?
Prices, this is the biggest thing i see with these, the prices are normally still rather large to lay compared to overall strike rate

iv been building a comeback strategy that im paper testing and its really got me thinking about this type of trade.

Will be interesting to see it. It's just variance I think. Trouble is like I said I've become distracted. Not made enough of the good and suffered on the bad.

Of course keeping track of the odds but the one thing I could count on as of last year was that the big odds weren't failing. Also, I'd be way better off of recent if I'd stuck to my original way of playing it. 2 goals down and the goal back is your eacape route. Not a way to increase potential green. The greedyness of seeing what others did for a bit had me come unstuck.

I do try and look for key players for sure. Inplay stats I've been done too many times not getting on because of the inplay stats.

Lat couple of days has seen big upsets but I keep looking at the overall to see whether the data is telling me to go later than I do but for now it's inconclusive. There are enough good results and not so many bad ones after my cutoff point.

Kawasaki this morning had plenty enough games but luckily I was asleep anyway. A quick look and they are stupidly far off in the distance so perhaps motivation not there today.

Romania been playing a while now and Cluj inplay stats plenty good enough. The 2nd goal was aa massive surprise and then they had a goal ruled out themselves which would have seen me exit.

Less said about the Benfica game the better haha!!

I will turn the ship around. Not long ago I said to myself it should snowball from here. What's happned is it went the other way when I took my off the ball and got caught up in other stuff.

@Darri never one to shy away from analysing stuff though I did take a look through the numbers.

Odds up to evens are around the 64% mark taking into account one re-lay and subsequent exit. This for initial entry and doesn't take into account any re-lays. It also doesn't take into account any re-lay at 1-2, 2-3 etc which mostly came good.

Clearly there is value there.

Odds between 2.0-2.5 are currently 21-5 (these are since I started new sheet by the way in August) so around 80%. There is one marked as green which would have been a struggle if I want to exit the trade after one back as I remember I wasn't quick enough to get on with a re-lay with goals coming 76 and 78. Either way I don't see a problem here.

Between 2.52-3.0 the results are 20-3 so hovering just under 87%

3.55-4.0 isn't so good at face value BUT......when you look at bigger reds and the fact there was an easy escape route mere minutes after most of the re-lays it really isn't that bad.

Backa Topola went down 0-2 and got 1 back minutes later. It's a red for me because not only did I escape, I went back in at 1-3. The escape was small green I remember. I turned that green to red with a stupid mistake.

Gremio v Sport Recife, went down 0-2, got one back. I reduced liability and stayed in. This was time to escape for small green.

Palmeiras went 0-2.......see the pattern haha!?

Hadjuk was a surprise. It remained 0-1 and so the loss was the loss. Hadjuk had played 6 games of their season and the opponent 7.

Atalanta only got back into it against Sampdoria late so it was take red for around half the liability. Not end of the world at all.

Ferreira vs Porto. Easy opportunity to scratch at 2-1. I didn't. That's the end of that.

Admittedly these haven't been much better than break even regardless of how they were played at those odds since August but certainly not a loss.

For odds over this then before last night I would have said the same. Break even over 4 matches, maybe even slightly green. Boavista massive dent there so it's food for thought for sure.

Will need to be way more careful on those odds.

[Richard Latimer]

@darri said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer been watching how you do for a while mate, iv always said the same thing about how i would trade them. Are you doing any of the following:

Current season only data
at least 10 games worth of current season played, always are upsets early season its why small teams can be near top because teams need time to gel together, united under fergie were prime examples of this.
key players
in play stats/watching the game?
Prices, this is the biggest thing i see with these, the prices are normally still rather large to lay compared to overall strike rate

iv been building a comeback strategy that im paper testing and its really got me thinking about this type of trade.

Will be interesting to see it. It's just variance I think. Trouble is like I said I've become distracted. Not made enough of the good and suffered on the bad.

Of course keeping track of the odds but the one thing I could count on as of last year was that the big odds weren't failing. Also, I'd be way better off of recent if I'd stuck to my original way of playing it. 2 goals down and the goal back is your eacape route. Not a way to increase potential green. The greedyness of seeing what others did for a bit had me come unstuck.

I do try and look for key players for sure. Inplay stats I've been done too many times not getting on because of the inplay stats.

Lat couple of days has seen big upsets but I keep looking at the overall to see whether the data is telling me to go later than I do but for now it's inconclusive. There are enough good results and not so many bad ones after my cutoff point.

Kawasaki this morning had plenty enough games but luckily I was asleep anyway. A quick look and they are stupidly far off in the distance so perhaps motivation not there today.

Romania been playing a while now and Cluj inplay stats plenty good enough. The 2nd goal was aa massive surprise and then they had a goal ruled out themselves which would have seen me exit.

Less said about the Benfica game the better haha!!

I will turn the ship around. Not long ago I said to myself it should snowball from here. What's happned is it went the other way when I took my off the ball and got caught up in other stuff.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer been watching how you do for a while mate, iv always said the same thing about how i would trade them. Are you doing any of the following:

Current season only data
at least 10 games worth of current season played, always are upsets early season its why small teams can be near top because teams need time to gel together, united under fergie were prime examples of this.
key players
in play stats/watching the game?
Prices, this is the biggest thing i see with these, the prices are normally still rather large to lay compared to overall strike rate

iv been building a comeback strategy that im paper testing and its really got me thinking about this type of trade.

[Richard Latimer]

Not much of a chance to get on tomorrows Japanese games so naturaly I hope they all lose haha!! No, just incase any members have money on, good luck:

[Richard Latimer]

The most damning thing is, and something I'm determined to put right after 3 decent months, I've wiped out all that profit and a little bit more in just Sept, Oct and 2 days of Nov.

Some of it can easily be put down to errors, lack of concentration and focus etc....Getting distracted by things that may work and ignoring what did work. Others can be put down to me changing the way I played the ELO's after seeing what others had done. Some of it I'm sure can be put down to this damn pandemic (never seen so many crazy results as recently).

Whatever it is though, now is the time to turn it around. I can still have a great (good maybe) Nov, it's only just under 5pts but the clock is ticking.

[Richard Latimer]

After going back to concentrating on my ELO I have had the worst start possible and find myself down over 5pts in 2 days. Couldn't make this s**t up.

[Richard Latimer]

Back for another day of punishment:

Ecuador doesn't have the best of history on these so this will be one to watch. If inplay stats support the comeback I may get involved.

[Richard Latimer]

ELO's for today:

I missed the first as for some reason when I saw it was 2-0 after I got up late I thought it was already over. 2-2 now. Good start in terms of data anyway.

[Richard Latimer]

I'm going to start looking at ratings again. If they can provide such an excellent strat as the ELO they can do the same for goals. Through looking at various successful filters and also thinking logically about 2 criteria I could use it's home offence and goal expectation.

A quick glance at what could have been today and my interest has piqued.

[Richard Latimer]

See you later October. You started off like a train but in the end I'm glad to see the back of you. More red today.

I see Lee Woodman reports a poor month on his main filter so while no one likes to see anyone lose it's heartening that this can happen to the best filters.

For Nov I'm thinking I should concentrate solely on the ELO. Getting back to ways of green. I'm never going to give up searching for something else but this is hurting my bank balance at the moment and it needs to stop.

[Richard Latimer]

After another mistake and that poor result with Porto tonight I'm now down almost 4pts for Oct. It's going to to take a monumental push to get back in the green for tomorrow and I prob can't do it with family commitments.

Still have high hopes for the 2nd half LTD filter. Just need to cut out the mistakes.

In terms of the ELO, a small change to the way I will be playing it. Home lays will only be taken at 1-0 where as away lays will continue to be taken at 1-2, 2-3 etc...

At 2-0 or 0-2 I will still re-lay but this is going back to my initial idea as nothing more than a potential route of escape. Most good teams are able to get one back and from that I can simply get out whether that be small red or small green. It worked for a year so why change it.